When the NFL schedule came out back in May, several games were circled and considered “must-see” matchups, but the Washington Commanders going on the road to play the Baltimore Ravens in Week 6 was not one of them.
However, with how things have played out for both teams through the first five weeks of the season, the battle between Baltimore (3-2) and Washington (4-1) has suddenly become the one game fans don’t want to miss. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP-caliber level, and the same could be said for Commanders rookie signal-caller Jayden Daniels.
Yes, a rookie has entered the MVP conversation. Whether he’s still in it Monday morning could depend on the outcome of Sunday’s game.
ODDS AND TRENDS
It was expected that the Ravens would establish themselves as Super Bowl contenders, but few saw Washington emerging as one of the best teams in the NFC. Bettors have been happy to get behind the Commanders, with 64 percent of the handle and 71 percent of the bets backing Washington +7 (-112) over at DraftKings.
As for moneyline tickets, DraftKings has seen 67 percent of the bets on Baltimore’s moneyline (-325), but 68 percent of the handle is on Washington’s (+260).
Bettors are expecting a shootout between the league’s highest-scoring teams — the Commanders rank first with 31.0 points per game while the Ravens are in second with 29.4. DraftKings has seen 68 percent of the wagers and 80 percent of the handle on the over (-110), with the total set at 51.5 points.
So, should bettors jump on the bandwagon and put money on the Commanders? Well, the public was just 5-7 against the spread last week and is 29-42-3 for the season, according to Sports Betting Dime. Week 4 is the only week where the public had a winning record, 8-7-1.
PROP PICKS
–Jayden Daniels, O/U 225.5 passing yards at -130/+100
Daniels has gone over this mark in each of his past four games, but he’s averaged 237.8 yards during that span, which does not leave much room for error. While the Ravens’ pass defense is one of the worst in the league (280.2 passing yards allowed per game), that stat is misleading because opponents have frequently had to throw to keep up.
Considering it might be hard for the Commanders to establish the ground game against a Baltimore team with the stiffest run defense in the NFL (60.4 rushing yards allowed per game), Daniels is going to have to move the ball through the air, making us lean toward the over.
–Derrick Henry, O/U 87.5 yards rushing at -120/-110
Look for the Ravens to use the run to open up the passing game, meaning a heavy dose of Henry early and often.
Henry has rushed for at least 92 yards in each of his past three games, a stretch that includes a pair of 100-yard showings on the ground. Take the over here.
KEY STAT
When favored by over three points in the regular season, Jackson is just 21-31 ATS. When the spread is three points or less in favor of Baltimore or has the Ravens as underdogs, Jackson has gone 25-5 ATS.
THE NEWS
All eyes will be on the talent under center when the Commanders and Ravens collide, and it’s not hard to understand why.
Jackson is the reigning MVP and is playing like someone who is intent on being a back-to-back winner. Daniels has been one of the most efficient and exciting players in the NFL this season — and he’s just a rookie! His game has been so impressive that he currently has the fifth-best odds at DraftKings to win MVP (+1000).
Both are playing at a high and comparable level:
–Jackson is averaging 241.2 passing yards per game (Daniels 227.0)
–Jackson is averaging 72.6 rushing yards per game (Daniels 60.0)
–Jackson has a 107.3 passer rating (Daniels 106.3)
–Daniels has completed 77.1 percent of his passes (Jackson 65.3)
–Daniels has a 73.2 QBR (Jackson 67.1)
With the two quarterbacks playing so well, something else will have to factor into the game’s outcome, barring either player making an uncharacteristic mistake. As crucial as the running game has been for both teams, you must look at the running backs.
Baltimore has a resurgent Henry leading the way, while Washington will be without its top running back, Brian Robinson Jr. (knee) — both former Alabama stars.
Outside of the offensive playmakers, there’s also still a lot to learn about each team’s defense. From a statistical perspective, it is hard to say who has the advantage and just how good (or bad) either unit is. Yes, the Ravens’ defense ranks second-to-last in passing, but is that because of a weak secondary or because teams can’t run against them?
Similar questions can be asked about the Commanders, but not to the same extent (No. 12 against the pass, No. 21 against the run).
INJURY REPORT
In addition to being without Robinson, Washington won’t have safety Tyler Owens because of a shin injury.
The Ravens have five players listed as questionable, a group that includes cornerback Marlon Humphrey (ankle), offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley (toe) and guard Sala Aumavae-Laulu (back).
PREDICTION
This game will go one of two ways: the Baltimore offense will bulldoze the Commanders’ defense and the Ravens will win comfortably, or Washington’s offense will keep the Ravens’ defense off-balance and own time of possession. We think the visitors keep it close and give themselves a chance to win.
Ravens 28, Commanders 23