Brandon Aiyuk’s contract saga has soured like a glass of milk in the warm Santa Clara sun. A once innocent back and forth, routine for the Kyle Shanahan 49ers nearly every summer, has quickly devolved into a nasty cold war with both sides entrenched in their stances. It’s been six months since the Niners endured their latest crushing defeat on the sport’s biggest stage once again. Now, as the team prepares to embark on another promising climb, it’s plagued by the lack of clarity surrounding the status of one of its most important offensive pieces. How did we get here?
For the first roughly 80% of the offseason, it looked as though the 49ers and Brandon Aiyuk would go through the motions of a typical San Francisco contract negotiation before signing the 2020 first round pick to an extension that reflected his value. The draft passed without a deal, further signaling that Aiyuk would remain in red and gold. Then, purgatory. Negotiations stalled, and soured eventually to the point where Aiyuk and his camp formally requested a trade in early July. Still even then, experts remained optimistic that the two sides would hammer out a deal. That attitude has changed in the last week. The Niners’ brass has dug its heels into the fresh turf at Levi’s, and as Aiyuk continues to hold in, his time frame to make a decision is at the 11th hour.
Things have come to a head. The Niners made it clear in the last 24 hours that they have an offer out to Brandon Aiyuk, and they have the framework of a trade in place to both the Cleveland Browns and the New England Patriots. The ball is in Aiyuk’s court, but is he willing to take the shot?
Matt Maiocco joined Tolbert and Copes on Monday afternoon, and for the first time in months had little clarity to offer on a day that saw rumors flying back and forth more than they had throughout the entire saga. Hours before he reported that deals were in place with the Browns and Patriots, Maiocco said he wasn’t sure that Aiyuk truly wanted to be dealt when he requested a trade in July. The hardball strategy may have backfired for Aiyuk, who now finds himself actually faced with the autonomy he publicly asked for. If he does head for seemingly greener pastures, he likely wouldn’t be the first to find that you don’t know what you got until it’s gone.
What may happen next, if it hasn’t fully played out yet, is that the market will tell Aiyuk exactly how much he’s worth. If a team like the Browns or Patriots is willing to pay him the ~$30M he wants, then the Niners’ hand would be forced. Even then, if the willing team (cough cough, New England) doesn’t have the assets to give back to the Niners, SF still holds the leverage to say no thanks.
If he is gone, Brandon Aiyuk will be remembered as a good 49er with a lot of “what if” attached to his name in the halls of Levi’s Stadium. What if his rookie offseason hadn’t been derailed by Covid? What if he hadn’t spent much of his sophomore season working his way out of the infamous Kyle Shanahan dog house? What if Chris Jones had been blocked in overtime and a wide open Aiyuk was hit in the back of the end zone for a Super Bowl overtime touchdown? If he departs, he will have made it to the final four in three of his first four seasons without hoisting football’s biggest prize.
Aiyuk is a great player, but a replaceable one. He isn’t a Christian McCaffrey, or a Trent Williams, or Nick Bosa. The Niners will be able to fill that hole in production. What he does become now, and where the sadness may set in for some Niner fans, is the latest tally on the list of significant 49er players to be a part of championship caliber teams without winning a Lombardi. Joe Staley. Frank Gore. Patrick Willis. Deforest Buckner. Arik Armstead. The list goes on. With every new name added to this list, the bleak possibility of the entire era holding that distinction becomes a little more real. And that’s an ominous reality for 49er fans.