It’s pretty rare, if not unprecedented, that a No. 6 seed is a first-round favorite to the level that the Warriors are over the Kings. Sacramento had a better record throughout the the 2022-23 season, but their complete lack of playoff experience vs. a team with four recent NBA titles has everyone looking at their records with a huge grain of salt.
Here’s how experts are handicapping the series:
Vegas
The Warriors opened as heavy betting favorites according to the bookmakers, coming in at -270 (a $270 bet would win $100) to win the series according to Bovada. That number has pretty much held firm but gone up slightly, to -275 a day before Game 1.
Interestingly, the Warriors are underdogs in Game 1, projected to lose by a point.
The Athletic
The Athletic had a scout, coach and executive pick each series. They all picked the Warriors to win.
Scout’s pick: Warriors in five. “I think the Kings can win some games. But (can they win) four times against the Warriors, especially if they lose one at home?”
Coach’s pick: Warriors in four. “Great matchup. I’m still going to say the Warriors (will win). The Kings don’t have that playoff heartbreak yet. And you need to go through the playoffs and have a little heartbreak to learn how to play in them, in my opinion.”
Executive’s pick: Warriors in six. “Baaaad, baaadd, baaadd luck for Sacramento, man. They get in, and they have the great year they had, and — oh my gosh, you know? I couldn’t be any happier for them, but then to get this — kaboom! — and draw Golden State? What a horrible matchup. Golden State in six.”
ESPN
If you thought The Athletic picks were overwhelming, ESPN is even more on the Warriors to advance. Fifteen of the 17 experts asked to make a pick chose Golden State.
Fox Sports
Sensing a trend here? That continues over at Fox Sports, where all three experts pick the Warriors to win.
Rohlin: Warriors in 5. Get ready for Steph, Klay and Draymond to show what they can do. It’s playoff time. Everything changes for this trio, which has won four championships together over the last eight years. The Kings are the league’s Cinderella story this season, but this is the nightmare matchup for them.
Bucher: Warriors in 6. I might feel different if the Kings had any kind of shot-blocking presence, but they have none, and despite Domantas Sabonis controlling the boards, the Warriors won three of their four regular-season meetings. In a battle of offensive powerhouses, I’m not about to bet against the team that has lost a TOTAL of five games in its last six first-round series. Not having home-court advantage for a team that was 11-30 on the road is a concern, but they did win four of their last five.
Weitzman: Warriors in 6. I know the Warriors can’t win on the road, and I know Sacramento’s Golden 1 Center is going to be LOUD. But the Warriors are still, well, the Warriors. They finished the season by winning eight of their final 10 games and seem poised to get Andrew Wiggins back, too.
That’s 23 experts total, two of which believe the higher seeded Kings will win the series. At least Sacramento isn’t short on bulletin board material.