It’s over. The weeks of watching the West standings jolt with the unpredictability of a Plinko board are behind us. The NBA playoffs are set.
Here’s a look at all the first round and play-in matchups, followed by some gut predictions:
WESTERN CONFERENCE
The Nuggets, Suns and Warriors feel like the only true championship contenders in the West, though the Grizzlies are always frisky and both Los Angeles teams are unpredictable. The Warriors’ path to repeat seems decidedly easier on this side of the bracket, though that’s more a credit to the Suns than disrespect to the Kings.
Play-in tournament
Lakers (7) vs. Timberwolves (8)
The Lakers were the best post-All-Star break team in the NBA. The Timberwolves sent Rudy Gobert home at halftime after punching Kyle Anderson.
Winner: Lakers
Pelicans (9) vs. Thunder (10)
This one feels pretty unpredictable. The Thunder haven’t arrived yet, but they’re too young to know any better than to think about playoff stakes, while the Pelicans, still without and unlikely to get back Zion Williamson, just lost a chance at a win-and-in scenario. Gut feeling says that lingers despite the Pelicans having more experience and the Thunder face the Timberwolves.
Winner: Thunder
Winner of 9-10 vs. loser of 7-8
Prediction: Timberwolves vs. Thunder
The Timberwolves are a mess, but this feels like an Anthony Edwards game. He wakes up, they play excellent defense and the Thunder’s combined inexperience shows up. Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns get a chance to face Nikola Jokic.
Winner: Timberwolves
Playoffs
Nuggets (1) vs. No. 8 seed (play-in final survivor)
Prediction: Nuggets vs. Timberwolves
This could be just what the Nuggets, who struggled down the stretch, need. Jokic has been dealing with a calf injury, which could be problematic against a tall, defensive-oriented team. But it could also be the sort of thing that snaps them out of their stupor. Minnesota is just too much of a mess to take seriously in a series.
Winner: Nuggets
Grizzlies (2) vs. No. 7 seed (play-in champion)
Prediction: Grizzlies vs. Lakers
This goes seven games, and gut feeling says I don’t know who wins. This might be the best series of the first round. The additions the Lakers made at the trade deadline have made them a borderline contender. We’re talking about acquiring Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley, Rui Hachimura, and sure, I guess D’Angelo Russell, too. If the Lakers win their play-in game over the Timberwolves, that might buy LeBron James and Anthony Davis enough time to rest up and win this series.
Winner: Lakers
Kings (3) vs. Warriors (6)
If Andrew Wiggins gets up to speed, it’s hard to bet against Golden State here. That said, they’re not going to sweep this thing. They might have a really bad loss or two. But to bet against them, with the benefit of having watched this core — the trio of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green all (mostly) healthy and playing near peak levels — for the last decade, would be foolish. In a year’s time, when Green perhaps leaves for a place like Portland, the result might be different.
Winner: Warriors
Suns (4) vs. Clippers (5)
The Suns might be the most menacing team in the league, but they’re entirely untrustworthy, and it feels like Chris Paul almost always gets hurt in the playoffs. Even with Kevin Durant, we must also not forget they’re biblical collapse last year to the Mavericks. Easy jabs aside, the Clippers almost botched it against them with Phoenix resting most of its starters. The Clippers do have some legitimate weapons, so it feels like this might go six games.
Winner: Suns
EASTERN CONFERENCE
There are two bona fide contenders at the top and then the Philadelphia 76ers, who are still very publicly coached by Doc Rivers and with whatever James Harden is at this point in his career. They could win a title or get knocked out in a first-round shocker. Who knows what they are.
Play-in tournament
Heat (7) vs. Hawks (8)
Jimmy Butler game.
Winner: Heat
Raptors (9) vs. Bulls (10)
The Bulls absolutely fell apart with Lonzo Ball not available this season. They almost finished with a top-10 pick, barely beating a tanking Mavericks team. It’s been a rough year for Chicago.
Winner: Raptors
Winner of 9-10 vs. loser of 7-8
Prediction: Hawks vs. Raptors
Trae Young probably does some stuff. The Hawks, despite a messy year, are still pretty talented.
Winner: Hawks
Playoffs
Bucks (1) vs. No. 8 seed (play-in final survivor)
Prediction: Bucks vs. Hawks
It’s hard not to give the Bucks a sweep, but let’s say the Hawks steal a game at home.
Winner: Bucks
Celtics (2) vs. No. 7 seed (play-in champion)
Prediction: Celtics vs. Heat
Butler has been playing the best basketball of his career and this seems like the type of series the Celtics could give themselves a panic attack. That said, they are unquestionably legit and should win this. It just might take six games.
Winner: Celtics
76ers (3) vs. Nets (6)
On paper, this should be a cake walk for the 76ers, which is exactly why it might be close. While it should be easy to bet on a sweep with how dominant Joel Embiid has been and I have no inclination they’ll lose, they have some decidedly unserious people involved in Doc Rivers and James Harden. It goes five but if it somehow goes longer it would be a predictable shocker.
Winner: 76ers
Cavaliers (4) vs. Knicks (5)
This could be a hilarious Knicks meltdown, in which Julius Randle does the thing where he thinks he’s a point guard and spin moves himself and the team into oblivion. It would also be an incredible narrative moment if Donovan Mitchell, who the Knicks declined to trade for — at a steep cost this offseason — goes off in clutch moments. New York opted for Jalen Brunson, though, and it’s worked out well for both teams. This has all the makings of a seven-game series, but the Knicks have some outstanding rebounders/rim protectors and a multitude of different, young weapons.
Winner: Knicks