Back at the start of September, when we were all naive about what the 2022 campaign for the 49ers would look like, I offered 10 predictions and hot takes in varying degrees for the regular season.
Here’s a look back at those and how they turned out:
1. The 49ers will set a franchise rushing record, breaking their previous record of 2,544 yards in 1998
Verdict: Wrong
The 49ers finished seventh in the league with 2,360 rushing yards. Three teams (the Chicago Bears, Baltimore Ravens and Atlanta Falcons), all of whom had mobile quarterbacks, surpassed the 2,544-yard mark.
This prediction was predicated on Trey Lance being at the helm, and was a prediction made before the 2021 season, with the same logic being that Lance’s rushing would push them over the edge.
San Francisco wasn’t exceedingly close to hitting the franchise mark. But their second half pace had them on the right track.
During their 10-game win streak to end the season, the 49ers averaged 151.5 rushing yards per game, which comes out to 2,575.5 yards over the course of a 17-game season.
2. Jimmy Garoppolo will not be traded at the deadline
Verdict: Correct
Jimmy indeed stuck around. He was having an outstanding season, too, tallying 16 touchdowns to 4 interceptions.
The logic in retaining him through the trade deadline wasn’t exactly rocket science. Shanahan has been snakebitten by quarterback injuries in all but one season, and even if the 49ers were offered something for him at the deadline, was it going to outweigh his value to San Francisco?
From September:
Garoppolo is exceedingly likely to secure a compensatory third-round pick for the 49ers. So, unless someone offers a second-round pick, which seems outlandish at this stage, why would you accept it, unless there’s major friction in the locker room, or unless Garoppolo is desperate to leave?
If you’re Kyle Shanahan and you get to the deadline with a competitive team, why take anything less than the third you’re assured in the offseason, and risk your invaluable quarterback depth?
There are a plethora of QB-needy teams this offseason with currently competitive rosters. The New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders are among the most obvious options, as are the Washington Commanders. Depending on Tua Tagavailoa’s health following his issues with concussions, the Miami Dolphins could get involved, too.
3. Brandon Aiyuk will be the team’s receiving yards leader
Verdict: Correct
Aiyuk had a breakout season, and it wasn’t because Trey Lance was at the helm.
His route-running has reached new heights this season. He’s consistently caused issues for opposing corners, with his whip route, in particular, ranking in the upper echelon of all receivers.
At this point, following a first-career 1,000-plus-yard season with 8 TDs and a high-level ability to block in a scheme that requires blocking from receivers, he’s one of the league’s most well-rounded WRs. I would firmly rank him in the top 25.
4. Jason Poe will start at left guard by the end of the year
Verdict: Wrong
The only defense for this take was that it was prefaced with the following:
This is in the hot take area. I’m not honestly sure I believe it. But every prediction article needs some hot takes, and I really like Jason Poe.
Not even close. Not in the area code. Not in the right state, right country, right epoch. Aaron Banks was fantastic this season, and arguably the 49ers’ best offensive linemen behind Trent Williams. Jason Poe, meanwhile, has remained on the practice squad.
Now, there’s an argument to be made that playing next to Williams makes everyone look better — ask Jets fans how Laken Tomlinson has been this season (hint: horrible) — and there’s truth to that, for sure. But Banks has been independently impressive.
Having Daniel Brunskill as an option to slot in with Banks nursing knee and ankle injuries is massive, but it’s an evident drop off in talent. Getting him back for the playoffs would be a substantial boost.
5. The 49ers will acquire a No. 2 complement to George Kittle at the trade deadline
Verdict: Wrong
Well, they got Christian McCaffrey instead. And Tyler Kroft has been quietly impressive, and should have far more than four receptions for 57 yards this season. At least a half dozen times, Kroft has been wide open and either ignored or missed on leak plays.
His impact has seen Ross Dwelley removed from the lineup entirely, with Charlie Woerner coming in almost exclusively for blocking assignments.
With McCaffrey and Kroft’s play — and Kittle playing the best he ever has, with 7 TDs in the last four games — there hasn’t been a need for another tight end.
6. The defense will lead the league in sacks
Verdict: Wrong
This one wasn’t even close. The 49ers finished tied ninth (with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Indianapolis Colts), with 44 sacks on the season. The Philadelphia Eagles, somehow, had 70.0 sacks. The next closest team, the Kansas City Chiefs, had 55.0, which was the league-leading tally in 2021.
7. Nick Bosa will lead the league in sacks with 21.5
Verdict: Mostly right
Bosa finished with 18.5 sacks on the year, three shy of 21.5 sacks in the regular season. If you include his 4.0 in the playoffs last season, Bosa had 19.5 sacks last year. In both playoff runs, he’s had 4.0 sacks.
What is astonishing is that Bosa, with 8.0 playoff sacks, ranks 21st all time in playoff sacks.
That’s the official number, at least. If he adds another 4.0 this postseason, he’d be tied with Reggie White for fourth all time, officially, and sixth all time, unofficially, with White and Too Tall Jones, per Pro Football Reference.
The official playoff leader all time is Willie McGinest with 16.0, but the unofficial leader is Harvey Martin, with 17.3. How do you get a third of a sack? Beats me. He was given 2.8 playoff sacks in 1973, so let’s round up and call it 17.5.
If Bosa did reach 12 this postseason, it would be a hyper-efficient mark. LaMarr Woodley (8 games) and Cedrick Hardman (9 games) are the only players with double-digit playoff sacks in fewer than 11 games.
8. Trent Williams will catch a first career touchdown pass
Verdict: Wrong
C’mon Kyle. Throw the big man the ball.
9. Ray-Ray McCloud will become the first 49er to return a punt for a touchdown and the first to return two touchdowns in a single season since Ted Ginn Jr.
Verdict: Wrong
Kyle Shanahan joked Tuesday, in reference to Ray-Ray McCloud’s understated disposition, that he “leads the league in mumbles.”
McCloud also nearly led the league in fumbles since he was drafted out of Clemson in 2018. Coming into this season, he had 11 fumbles over six years, the sixth-most in the league for a non-quarterback.
He fumbled twice again this season, but he recovered both. That was a decrease from four with the Steelers in 2021, two of which he lost. In each of the prior four seasons, he’d lost exactly two fumbles. He didn’t lose one this year.
McCloud was fantastic for the 49ers this season and seemed to perpetually be one block away from taking a kick or punt to the house. He consistently pulled out NBA-like ankle-breakers and put San Francisco in solid field position, finishing second in punt return yardage (356 yards) and 10th in kick return yardage (599 yards).
10. The 49ers will win the division over the Rams
Verdict: Mostly right
The Rams. Lol. Obviously the 49ers demolished the NFC West, sweeping the division for the first time since 1997, back when the division had five teams, for some reason including the Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints and the then-St. Louis Rams.
This year’s Rams weren’t even part of the picture. It started with Matthew Stafford dealing with “bad tendinitis” in his throwing elbow. Aaron Donald came back, but Odell Beckham Jr. didn’t — never actually taking the field this year — and the Rams signed Allen Robinson, who was a combination of washed and not trusted by Stafford.
Now, Sean McVay is considering his future yet again, a year after turning down a reported five-year, $100 million deal. The team has no first-round picks, is aging and cap crunched. It’s a good time to get out.