The Warriors will officially begin their title defense on Tuesday in the Chase Center, right after they receive their championship rings.
Having been to six finals in the past eight years, Golden State is a perennial contender. This year, GSW is blending the veteran trio of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green with established players entering their primes — Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins — and promising young talents like Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody and James Wiseman.
If the youngsters hit in a major way, the Warriors could have as much talent and depth as ever. But already warning signs have popped up in the form of internal strife; Green punching Poole in the face 11 days ago caused the type of drama so many teams trying to go back-to-back endure.
Here’s how some experts, statistics-based models and oddsmakers think Golden State’s 2022-23 season will play out.
Vegas odds
Most sports books have the Warriors either tied with Boston or right behind the Celtics as the favorite to win the NBA championship. Draftkings and BetMGM give GSW a 6 to 1 chance to win the title. Fanduel gives them +700 odds.
The top-five contenders, using Draftkings’ odds, are as follows.
Boston Celtics, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers: +600
Brooklyn Nets: +700
Milwaukee Bucks: +800
In terms of win totals, oddsmakers view the Warriors similarly favorably. Draftkings set the club’s over/under at 51.5 wins, behind only the Celtics, Clippers, Bucks and Suns.
ESPN’s preseason win total projections
Senior writer Kevin Pelton’s model is based on a combination of player projections for individual stats, a three-year four-factor input to measure team success and predicted health luck based on past injury histories.
The result for the Warriors: a shockingly low win total projection of 41.9.
ESPN’s model has the Warriors finishing in eighth place in the Western Conference. A play-in, .500 team seems like an impossible outcome for a squad as stacked as Golden State and with as much championship pedigree.
Pelton noted that he expects Golden State to exceed its projection. He hinted that the losses of Otto Porter Jr. and Gary Payton II factored into the surprising projection. It’s also possible the model is overreacting to age-based regression from stars Curry, Thompson and Green — all of whom are in their 30s.
The Athletic panel
A contingency of 39 NBA writers, editors and podcasters from The Athletic weighed in on a variety of team and individual predictions.
The Warriors expectedly showed up frequently throughout the categories. Stephen Curry received votes for MVP and the scoring title, Jordan Poole got love in the Sixth Man of the Year category, Steve Kerr got some Coach of the Year hype.
In terms of team success, four of The Athletic’s experts chose the Warriors as their NBA champion; only the Bucks and Clippers received more votes. Twelve of the 39 voters chose Golden State to come out of the West.
Check out the full breakdown here.
FiveThirtyEight’s 2 models
FiveThirtyEight has two different methodologies to predict NBA success: RAPTOR and Elo Ratings. Both of which are based on 50,000 season simulations.
RAPTOR factors in player ratings that predict future performance based on the trajectory of similar players. That, combined with depth charts, injury tracking and other considerations, generate talent estimates.
This year, the Warriors have the eighth-highest RAPTOR rating, tied with Phoenix. That amounts to a 6% chance at winning the Finals, same as Miami, Dallas and Atlanta and behind Boston, Memphis, Denver and Philadelphia. RAPTOR projects a 49-33 regular season finish and comfortable playoff position.
Sum-of-the-parts predictions may be flawed because simply adding up individual talent isn’t necessarily how teams win basketball games. The RAPTOR model gave the Warriors only a 20% chance at beating the Celtics in the Finals last year — a lopsided figure that didn’t align with Vegas odds or common sense.
FiveThirtyEight’s Elo Ratings appear more grounded in reality.
The Elo Ratings measure team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent.
Elo Ratings forecast Golden State to finish 57-25 — the best record in the NBA. It gives the Warriors a 97% chance at reaching the postseason and 17% chance at winning it all, both tops in the league.