We’re deep in the doldrums of the NFL offseason, which means speculation is rampant. Talking heads are launching hot takes about Trey Lance, there’s speculation over whether Aaron Rodgers will retire, and Tom Brady’s actual retirement still doesn’t seem all that real.
He’s always wanted to play for the 49ers, but they spurned him just two years ago. So, folks have begun openly wondering, could he come back for one last ride with his hometown team?
This is not an attempt to say Brady is definitely or definitely not coming to the 49ers, just to assess whether it’s possible or realistic.
Finances aside, the fact that Brady just announced his retirement would suggest he’s, well, retiring. He could obviously pull a Brett Favre at any time, though, and come back. As of now, that seems unlikely.
What also seems unlikely is the 49ers altering their long-term plan, which is to maximize cap space by trading Jimmy Garoppolo — saving $24.1 million and receiving draft compensation — and playing Trey Lance while on his rookie deal.
That will help them get done some mega-extensions for Deebo Samuel and Nick Bosa and enter this year’s draft with at least 10 draft picks.
This is a franchise that is very careful about how it works the cap, and treats it with higher regard than teams like, say, the Saints.
They absolutely do renegotiate deals, like with Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander and Weston Richburg, but many of those decisions were just about moving around already guaranteed money rather than adding much more to the docket.
If the 49ers were to acquire Tom Brady, it would mean that plan would have to be adjusted.
Here are the numbers.
San Francisco is projected to be over the salary cap by about $11 million once they sign enough players to the roster, and that’s likely to be higher. Currently, they’re more than about $4.5 million over.
Moving Garoppolo would give immediate breathing room, providing about $20 million in immediate space, but $9 million in practical cap space.
To acquire Brady, the 49ers would have to trade for him unless the Buccaneers decide to release him. He’s contracted for another season there, and they have zero incentive to release him, especially given the $32 million dead cap hit they’d take on next season, per OverTheCap. Trading him now would cut their cap space by roughly $11.7 million.
The only logical way you could get this done from the Buccaneers’ side is by waiting until after June 1. At that point, a trade would save them about $12.3 million, but would hit them harder the following season.
Suffice it to say, the greatest impediment for any deal, aside from Brady un-retiring, or the 49ers being willing to change their long-held plan and affect potential extensions, is getting the Buccaneers to consider an in-conference trade of Brady, who is still contracted to them.
The trade compensation, in order for them to take on his dead cap hits while sending him to a rival, would have to be substantial, even if it’s just a one-year rental. It would have to be especially enticing given that the Buccaneers stand to get $16 million of Brady’s signing bonus back if he retires.
On the 49ers’ end, Brady would only hit the books for about $12.3 million next season, meaning they’d still save nearly $12 million going from Garoppolo to him, but without any real wiggle room in the cap.
Unless the Buccaneers released Brady, he would have to renege on hi retirement, request a trade within the conference to a direct competitor and then have the 49ers — who are without first-round picks for the next two years — offer enough compensation for his services to encourage Tampa Bay to make a deal that would pretty much guarantee they’d have no chance to win the NFC next year.
Good luck convincing a 69-year-old Bruce Arians that’s a gambit worth embarking upon.
If that all did happen, the reality is the 49ers might not be able to afford extension for both of Samuel and Bosa, and they’d be wasting another year to reap the benefits of Trey Lance’s rookie deal. It would also make it extremely tough to retain the likes of Laken Tomlinson, D.J Jones and Arden Key, among others.
That said, if the did acquire Brady next season, realistically, you’d give them probably a 50/50 chance to win the Super Bowl, and they would become odds-on favorites to win not just the NFC West, but the conference, too.
There are ways for the 49ers to create additional cap space, though. By cutting Dee Ford after June 1, they can save $2.4 million. They can renegotiate Jimmie Ward’s deal and save a variable amount, but probably around $6-7 million. And they could save $6.5 million by cutting Samson Ebukam, though he played well down the stretch, and a renegotiation could allow the 49ers to keep both him and Arden Key.
There’s also the option to restructure Arik Armstead’s deal and save up to nearly $10 million.
If the 49ers took those first three options, saving, say, $6 million from Ward, $6.5 million from Ebukam and $2.4 million from Ford, they could trade for Brady and have about $15 million of practical cap space, which would let them at least retain Tomlinson and make some other key re-signings, but probably lose Jones.
If you’re Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch, do you take the Sean McVay-Wes Snead route and say, “f**k them picks” and go all-in on Brady for one more year, knowing you still have another two years of Lance’s manageable rookie salary after that?
Having been burned once already by not going after Brady, it’s a pricey road and complicated most clearly by the Buccaneers needing to play ball, but it is far from impossible.
Again, this is not saying that this is likely to happen, just that if Brady, the 49ers and Buccaneers all came together to make the move work, the framework is possible.
It would, however, take the 49ers changing their long-term plan and the Buccaneers effectively punting next season. Oh, and Brady has to tell his family he’s playing another season after saying he was done… that, too.