The 2021 National League West champion Giants showed just how much preseason projections can matter. But as the 2022 season — pending the ongoing lockout — rolls around, another round of models will start to trickle out.
Given the offseason isn’t over yet, the 2022 projections may be even less applicable. Still, Fangraphs released its annual ZiPS standings projections, with the Giants slated to finish third in the NL West with a record of 81-81. That would mean a 26-win regression from San Francisco’s franchise-record regular season last year.
The departures of Buster Posey and Kevin Gausman are the main factors in San Francisco’s .500 projection, Fangraphs noted. Adding Alex Cobb in free agency could help replace Gausman’s production, but his injury history adds variability to SF’s rotation.
The same model has the Dodgers winning the division with a 94-68 record and San Diego bouncing back from its hellish 2021 with a 90-72 second-place finish.
The ZiPS model uses multi-year statistics, with more recent seasons weighed heavier, to estimate an individual player’s baseline expectation. The methodology is extrapolated roster-wide to predict a team’s success.
ZiPS is projecting major regression among San Francisco’s position players across the board. Brandon Crawford is projected to fall off from his MVP-level form and hit .256, but still lead San Francisco’s hitters in WAR. Wilmer Flores is projected to lead SF in batting average at .276, with Brandon Belt pacing the Giants with an .814 OPS.
Logan Webb is projected to build on his breakout 2021 and lead SF’s pitching staff, and Camilo Doval is estimated to anchor the bullpen with 26 saves.
Vegas is also similarly cold on the Giants. Odds via BetMGM also gives the Giants the third-best chances to win the NL West.
The Giants have +1100 odds to win the 2022 National League pennant, per BetMGM — seventh best in the league. The Dodgers are the favorite at +275, followed by the Mets and defending World Series champion Braves. The Padres, at 7-to-1, have the fourth-best odds.
San Francisco has the 13th best odds to win the World Series at 20-to-1.
Of course, much can change once the lockout ends and league activity resumes. A couple big swings in free agency or on the trade market can bolster the Giants’ roster and significantly embolden their chances.
When asked by Andy Baggarly of The Athletic this week how the coaching staff aims to follow up last year’s 107-win season, manager Gabe Kapler said focusing on process over result is the right mindset.
“It’s not by examining the outcome,” Kapler told The Athletic. “Of course, the outcome is what everyone focuses on. It was an excellent outcome by any measure to win 107 games and the National League West. But it’s tough to say, ‘Well, how do we win 108 or 109?’ That’s just not a helpful way for me to think about it…What we can do and have been doing is to examine the processes and practices. Are we as efficient as we can be? Are we as intense in short bursts as we can be while also respecting the recovery of the players? We did a fine job. But I think we can do better.”