The Stephen Curry Chasing History watch may have begun prematurely, but the Warriors guard is now starting to really zero in on the all-time 3-point record.
There was chatter last Wednesday about whether Curry could hit 16 3s at home against Portland. He sunk six. He needed 10 against Philadelphia, but Matisse Thybulle’s hounding defense held him to three. Those targets didn’t seem gargantuan for the historically great Curry, but he only chipped away at the record.
Now, heading into Monday night’s game in Indianapolis, Curry is six 3-pointers shy of Ray Allen’s record of 2,973 — meaning he needs seven to become the all-time leader. The target will get more and more manageable with each game. But how likely is it Curry becomes the most prolific long range shooter in NBA history tonight?
“I think that conversation (about potentially making 16) sparked a little extra anxiousness about the whole thing,” Curry said Monday after shootaround. “But, yeah, it feels a little bit different now knowing we’re right there. Again, it will happen when it happens and I’ll enjoy it when it does.”
According to the Action Network, Curry is a +125 underdog to break the record in the building Reggie Miller — one of Curry’s idols — revolutionized 3-point shooting. There may have been more betting hype on Curry last Saturday in Philadelphia, when his odds were -110 to make over six.
But those are just odds. Since the 2012-13 season, the first year he shot a high volume of 3s, Curry has hit at least seven 3s in 100 regular season games. He’s played 607 games in that stretch, meaning he’s connected on as many 3s as he needs to break the record 16.5% of the time.
That 16.5% number may undersell Curry’s chances, though. During his unanimous MVP season, Curry had 24 games with at least 7 triples. This, year he already has eight in 25 games (32%) and he’s attempting more per game — 13.4 — than ever.
In his career playing in the Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Curry averages 23 points per game on 50/41.7/87.9 shooting splits. But he averages just 3.1 3-pointers on 7.5 attempts in those eight games. He could hoist double that on Monday.
Even with the incentive to put the record past him, Curry has said he’s playing the same style as ever. To win games, the Warriors need Curry to take and make a lot of 3s, and that’s what he’s trying to do. Over the past six games, Curry has shot 41-for-124 from the field, his worst field goal percentage in a six-game span in his NBA career, as San Francisco Chronicle’s Ron Kroichick pointed out. In that stretch, Curry is 30-for-86 from deep (34.9%).
Knowing Curry, it seems just as likely he bounces back from the rough shooting and explode as it is he continues to struggle — at least by his standards. But signs point to him needing at least one more game after Monday to break Allen’s record.