Mac Jones is having a nice rookie season. The Patriots first-round pick has helped lead the team to a 7-4 start, and is fresh off a walloping of the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night.
It’s an interesting situation to compare to what’s going on with Trey Lance and the 49ers, in part because Jones was rumored to be Kyle Shanahan’s pick at No. 3 overall. Jones has looked solid, more consistent than any of the quarterbacks picked above him. Meanwhile, Trey Lance has barely seen the field, and sat on the bench while Jimmy Garoppolo has looked like, well, Jimmy Garoppolo.
So, did the 49ers make a mistake taking Lance instead of Jones? According to KNBR’s John Lund, the answer is a resounding no.
(The following has been condensed for brevity)
Mac Jones is in the perfect spot at No. 15. He’s got a great offensive coordinator, he’s got a great head coach, he’s got a tremendous defense, he has a really good running game. Does that remind you of anybody? Maybe Jimmy Garoppolo in 2019? They’re 7-4, he’s in a great situation. But if Mac Jones went to the Jets would he be doing this? If he was the No. 1 pick, if he was the No. 2 pick?
Atmosphere is everything, what surrounds you. Trevor Lawrence if he’s with the Patriots is he doing this? Probably.
We look at Mac Jones, we see the success of the Patriots, and automatically we say that the 49ers should have taken Mac Jones.
I was just looking at the numbers a little bit, and I’m not going to go deep into the analytics, but suffice it to say that air yards per completion and air yards per attempt and all that stuff that shows how you throw the football, Mac Jones is at the bottom of the NFL in all those things. Why? Because Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick are running the football, playing defense…and they’re playing a safe passing game and to his strengths which is get the ball to the receivers.
They went out and got a couple of receivers including one they poached from the 49ers. They got a couple of tight ends, they got an offensive line, because they have a young quarterback they are not going to ask to do too much. So when I hear like a Tom Brady comparison, slow down. He’s not that.
Mac Jones is Jimmy Garoppolo. That’s what he is. Does he have upside? Yeah, he’s 23. So can he be better than Jimmy Garoppolo? Yes. But Mac Jones is a guy who a lot of people like because he’s an efficient quarterback, more of an Alex Smith type, he’s going to complete a lot of passes and not go down the field. Maybe as he progresses in his career, he’s going to go down the field more, he’s going to turn into a really good quarterback, but for right now they are playing a safe passing game, he completes a high percentage of his passes, they’ve got a great running game and they have the second best defense in the NFL. That’s what Mac Jones is and that’s what the Patriots are.
So what was the front office thinking when the 49ers decided to get Trey Lance? They wanted upside. They had Mac Jones in Jimmy Garoppolo. The numbers are strikingly similar. Two years ago when they had a great defense and great running game, and Jimmy Garoppolo being efficient, that’s what they have and that’s what they had.
So Kyle Shanahan and the front office look at this thing and said that’s not enough. We’re going to go out and get some upside.
If we had to do it over right now, would I take Trey Lance or Mac Jones? I’d take Trey Lance. Because if Trey Lance is what he’s supposed to be, and I don’t know if he is, but if he is what he’s supposed to be, than he’s an efficient quarterback that gives you the upside and mobility in the pocket, and that’s what Kyle Shanahan ultimately decided. I’m going to take a wild card, and take a swing.
I think Mac Jones is going to have a very nice career, but he’s going to be a double, to make a baseball comparison. You hit a double, it’s nice. What Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers think is let’s try and hit it out of the park. And when the draft came around, what do we as fans always think? Hit it out of the park.
We always want the upside. As fans we always want the crazy athlete, the upside, we always want the swing for the fences. Then when the other guy is solid, and our guy blows out, ‘We should’ve taken that guy!’ Well we don’t know yet.
Three or five years down the road, if Trey Lance doesn’t work out, he’s going to get panned. But to sit here and rip the organization now…when Lance hasn’t had an opportunity to play, I don’t think it’s accurate.
Listen to the full segment below. You can listen to every KNBR interview on our podcast page at knbr.com/podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts.
Catch Papa & Lund weekdays from 10 a.m. – 2 p.m. on KNBR 104.5 / 680 and streaming live on KNBR.com.