When the Giants and Padres open the second half of the season in San Diego on Friday evening, San Francisco will be in unfamiliar territory.
For a roster loaded with players who have contributed to the Giants’ championship culture, the second half of the year will feature what could ultimately feel like an interminable stretch of meaningless baseball.
San Francisco begins the second half of the season with a 34-56 record, needing to win 47 of their final 72 games to even go .500 this season. After posting a first half winning percentage of .378, it’s readily apparent Bruce Bochy’s club is headed for just its second losing season of the past decade, and could be headed for the second 100-loss season in franchise history.
It’s impossible to pin the Giants’ struggles on one particular issue, given the fact ace Madison Bumgarner has been out of the rotation since mid-April, the team has received wildly inconsistent production from its outfielders, the majority of its infield has under-performed relative to career norms and its bullpen has allowed the third-most inherited runners in the league to score.
“There are tough decisions and there are going to be hard deals that have to be made that may or may not be popular for us, even,” Giants’ general manager Bobby Evans said on KNBR on Thursday. “But we’ll have to see, we want to stick with our core and find a way to get stronger and give these guys a chance to show what they can do back in another postseason or two and that needs to happen but it’s going to take some adjustment to get us back there.”
Even amidst the franchise’s horrific slide, Giants’ management’s public message remains clear: San Francisco is not giving up on its core.
The Giants are built around Bumgarner, catcher Buster Posey and infielders Brandon Crawford, Joe Panik and Brandon Belt, all homegrown talents under team control for the foreseeable future. Though Evans admitted at the end of the All-Star break that the Giants may need to consider ‘tearing down a wall or two,’ San Francisco is confident it doesn’t need a significant renovation to fix its foundation.
“There are obviously adjustments we have to make, but I don’t anticipate major changes to our core,” Evans said. “We’ve got to find a way to get better and stronger and more effective, but some of that is just in getting more out of the guys that are still in the prime of their careers. There’s a reason why we’ve had success with the guys in the lineup and we also have to face there are reasons why we’ve struggled and how can we best address it and get ourselves playing better all-around baseball.”
With Evans’ plan for the franchise clear, I examined the Giants’ first half downfall and their hopes for the future to help determine what would characterize a successful second half for a team that’s already forced to play for pride.
Starting pitching
The Giants finished the first half with right-hander Johnny Cueto posting the best earned run average of any starter in the team’s rotation. In most seasons, that’s a sign that Cueto is pitching well and the rotation is falling in line behind him, but in 2017, it’s an awful omen for the Giants’ staff.
Cueto’s 4.51 ERA is two full points higher than his final ERA from last season, and two of the Giants’ first half starters, Matt Cain and Matt Moore, own the two worst ERAs among qualifying starters in the National League.
With Bumgarner set to return from his extended absence on Saturday, the Giants will open the second half with a rotation featuring Cueto, Bumgarner, Jeff Samardzija, Moore and rookie Ty Blach. In his 13th and what is all but certain to be his final season with San Francisco, Cain will shift to a swingman role in the bullpen.
For the Giants’ rotation to experience success in the second half, San Francisco needs Bumgarner to return to form after suffering the first serious injury of his career in a dirt-biking accident.
“It’s been a big hurt to us without him (Bumgarner),” Evans said. “He represents a lot of the heart and soul behind this club. He’s a huge presence every fifth day. The guys love him, the guys love competing against him and with him and I think his presence back in our rotation will be a huge boost back in our clubhouse. Probably not even measurable as to the impact that he makes.”
Because Bumgarner could eventually command more than $200 million on the free agent market, it’s imperative for San Francisco to know if he’s the same pitcher he was before his injury.
In the case of their remaining starters, the Giants are hopeful Cueto regains command of breaking pitches that have all-too-often found the heart of the plate this season, and begins to settle down after a tumultuous first half. Because Cueto has the ability to opt out of his contract at the end of the year, the Giants are hopeful they’ll give him enough reason to believe San Francisco can contend in the immediate future, as that could build a convincing case for Cueto to return, regardless of whether he opts out or not.
With Moore and Blach, San Francisco wants two left-handers who could be key parts of their 2018 rotation to be more effective strike-throwers. Both pitchers have had a tendency to leave balls over the plate this season –especially Moore– so if both can work out mechanical flaws during July and August, they could find themselves competing for the right to enter the offseason with a solidified spot on next season’s staff.
Bullpen
A successful second half for the Giants’ bullpen hinges on the healthy return of closer Mark Melancon.
The Giants paid $62 million this offseason to have Melancon shore up the team’s late-inning leaks, and so far, Melancon has been one of the team’s greatest disappointments. Even though a team with the Giants’ record doesn’t have many save situations to offer a closer, Melancon has already blown four of his 14 chances, and finished the first half on the disabled list for the second time this season.
If the Giants are going to contend in 2018 and 2019, they need a healthy Melancon shutting the door at the end of games to make that possible.
During the second half, San Francisco also needs to see improvement from homegrown products like Steven Okert, Josh Osich and Kyle Crick, because all three pitchers could have expanded roles in a 2018 bullpen. Right-handers Hunter Strickland and Cory Gearrin have been solid for much of the year, and Bochy has confirmed his trust time after time in veteran George Kontos.
Another positive takeaway the Giants are hoping to see is a continued resurgence from former Rangers’ closer Sam Dyson, who could be the team’s set-up man over the long haul if he continues a recent hot streak.
If Melancon can prove he’s healthy, though, many of the lingering questions over the long-term viability of the Giants’ current bullpen makeup will disappear.
Outfield
The Giants’ greatest question marks come in the form of a pair of aging outfielders in center and right, and a “black hole” in left.
Denard Span and Hunter Pence are owed a combined $29 million in 2018, and neither player appears capable of filling an everyday role for a championship contender at this point in their career.
Span has enjoyed an uptick in his performance at the plate over the last month, raising his average to .284, but Span’s center field defense has left plenty to be desired for the Giants this season. Pence, meanwhile, has battled a handful of nagging injuries and his .252 average is 30 points below his career mark.
Perhaps the greatest concern for the Giants, though, is in left field, a position Bochy termed a “black hole” before rookie Austin Slater debuted and hit .290 over his first 100 at-bats. Slater, though, tore the adductor muscle off the bone in his hip and is out until at least September.
For the Giants to term the second half of the season a success in the outfield, they may need a prospect like Chris Shaw to arrive at the Major League level and give the team an immediate boost at the plate from a power-hitting standpoint. Shaw profiles as a first baseman or left fielder, and given San Francisco’s outfield struggles this year, a prospect could be the saving grace.
Though San Francisco will be reluctant to promote Shaw because of 40-man roster implications, Shaw forcing the team’s hand down at AAA Sacramento would generally be a very positive sign.
Of course, San Francisco also wants Slater to return and take productive at-bats in September, and would like to see Pence look like a more disciplined hitter during the second half.
In actuality, the Giants may not be able to solve their outfield issues until the offseason, and it could take a considerable salary dump and a key free agent signing this winter to make San Francisco more competitive in the near future. At this point, the outfield problems are glaring, and there are no easy fixes.
Infield
Though the challenges in the Giants’ infield aren’t as problematic as those facing the outfield, the underwhelming approach at the plate from shortstop Brandon Crawford through the first half of the year is an issue that San Francisco hopes works itself out over the next 70 games.
Crawford’s average has dipped as low as .220 in recent weeks, and coupled with an injury to third baseman Eduardo Nunez and up-and-down play from first baseman Brandon Belt, San Francisco has received less than it expected at three key positions.
Over the past few weeks, Belt has begun to resurrect his average, and his on-base percentage and power numbers have been there throughout the season. If he can hit 20 points higher during the second half, the Giants will be in good hands at first base moving forward.
The immediate goal for the Giants’ infield is for Nunez to demonstrate he’s completely healthy over the next two weeks, so San Francisco can find a suitable trade partner and exchange Nunez for a prospect. The Giants could have Ryder Jones or Jae-gyun Hwang man third base until September, when the team hopes one of its top prospects, Christian Arroyo, will be completely recovered from hand surgery and ready to take Major League at-bats.
The Giants don’t have much to worry about with second baseman Joe Panik and catcher Buster Posey, but certainly want to see both players continue to perform at the level they’ve demonstrated they’re capable of playing.
Because Posey, Crawford, Panik and Belt represent the core of the Giants’ position players, management should be hoping to see more encouraging signs than just having the players perform closer to their career norms. It’s a quartet that represents how the Giants were built, and it’s a group that the franchise believes in moving forward. Whether those positive signs come in the form of leadership, late-game success or in another manner, after all San Francisco has been through this season, the organization is counting on its core to give its fan base hope that the 2017 season is just an out-of-character setback for a group that’s accustomed to doing so much more.