Any way you slice it, through 35 games, the San Francisco Giants are the worst team in baseball. Their 12-23 record and -68 run differential are both the lowest marks in the majors. Their 115 runs scored and 183 runs allowed are both the worst in the National League. According to Fangraphs, the Giants have an 8.3 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Nobody could’ve expected a start quite like this, even if there were warning signs during the second half of last year, when the Giants nearly missed the playoffs despite finishing with the best record in the majors at the All-Star break. Their luck hasn’t been great either. Ace Madison Bumgarner will be on the shelf for a few more months after a freak dirt bike accident. Brandon Crawford, who looked primed for a big season after an MVP-type performance in the World Baseball Classic, has spent the majority of time on the DL with a groin injury. Mark Melancon, the $62 million closer the Giants signed this offseason, is out with an elbow issue.
The question now is how do the Giants improve, not just for the remainder of this season, but for the foreseeable future?
The outlook, in that respect is also bleak. Put simply, the Giants don’t have the assets, either in the minor leagues or on the big league roster, to package in a trade that would be worth much of anything, for this season at least. This of course assumes the club will be sellers at the trade deadline, something that may be a bit too early to concede. But San Francisco should start preparing for that possibility now, and should the struggles continue, the club’s hands look pretty tied.
The Giants have most of their core under contract for the foreseeable future, aside from Hunter Pence who will be a free agent in 2019, and Denard Span, who the Giants have the option of letting walk during the same offseason. An optimist would argue that having a core of Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Madison Bumgarner and Mark Melancon is a good spot to be in. Even if Johnny Cueto walks this offseason, the Giants have never been afraid to spend freely on the open market when it comes to their rotation.
The hope is that this is simply a blip, and the aforementioned cornerstones help turn things around in 2018. If that doesn’t happen though, then what? The Giants have what many consider one of the thinnest farm systems in the league, and could use a handful of prospects in exchange for an established player, as a silver lining for what is looking like a lost season. But midseason trade chips traditionally only have a year, or less, left on their contracts before being moved, and the Giants don’t really have anyone in that situation with much value. The two primary trade candidates on the roster would be Matt Moore (club option next year) and Eduardo Nunez (unrestricted free agent). Unfortunately, both have been abysmal in 2017. Moore has racked up a 6.52 ERA in his seven starts, and Nunez is hitting .256 with a .606 OPS.
There is also Cueto, who the Giants should absolutely move if they believe he is leaving this offseason, but that situation is more complicated, as pointed out by Nicolas Stellini of Fangraphs:
Cueto could also be moved if the Giants anticipate that he’ll opt out, but that’s a much more complicated situation. San Francisco would be forfeiting the chance to put a qualifying offer on Cueto, and potential buyers could be wary of taking a chance on him, knowing that he’d be much more likely to opt in if he gets hurt following the trade. The acquiring team would then be saddled with a rather large payroll commitment for the future.
There’s Hunter Strickland who is young and having a nice start to the season, but he’s also a piece that the Giants are hoping they can turn into a pillar of their already thin bullpen.
This is all to say that the Giants are probably stuck with what they have this season. Their best players are under contract long term and they want to keep them. Everybody else on a short term contract is not playing well or is too injury prone to drum up interest, and the farm system is mostly bereft of close-to-MLB-ready prospects, especially after the call up of Christian Arroyo.
At least for now, the hope is that the current roster simply plays better, if not this season, than next. But the Giants aren’t just bad right now, they have been one of the worst teams in baseball since last July, and the assumption that they will just turn into a playoff team with what they have, is questionable at best.
Without the flexibility to make a move, however, that’s all Giants fans can hope for at the moment.