Roger Goodell strolls slowly to the stage seven days from now in Philadelphia.
“With the second overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft,” the commissioner begins, “the San Francisco 49ers select … Solomon Thomas, defensive linemen, Stanford.”
Clutching his cellphone, an emotional Thomas throws on a 49ers cap. He hugs his family. He climbs on stage to pose for pictures with Goodell. It’ll be a watershed moment for a first-time GM and head coach, a player they’ll be linked to for their entire tenure in San Francisco.
But is Thomas, by far the most heavily mocked player to the 49ers, actually who John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan want?
Consider this: When Lynch got hired, what was the number one thing the GM wanted about the process? Secrecy.
“One of the great and liberating things for me, and I think why this thing came to fruition, I made a big deal that this stay quiet,” Lynch said on the Murph and Mac show back on Feb. 1. “First of all, you know what I was doing? Part of the rumors are things fly out of that building. And I wanted to see if I could trust this person. And so that was part of my thinking.”
This is purely speculation on my part — everyone is playing poker right now — but I truly believe the same will ring true next Thursday. I think Lynch and Shanahan will flip the script at No. 2 and take a player not named Solomon Thomas. I think the power players are purposely steering draft experts and other teams in a direction they don’t actually intend to go. It’s smart, perceptive behavior you expect from playoff contending organizations. Behavior like this is why so many people raved about the hirings.
Because according to the experts, anyone other than Thomas would be considered a shock. Name whichever prognosticator you want, they have the 6-foot-2, 273-pound defensive lineman pegged to the 49ers at No. 2. Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, Cris Collinsworth, Dane Brugler, Rob Rang, Tony Pauline, Walter Football, Jayson Braddock, Rotoworld, The Ringer, Daniel Jeremiah and Charlie Casserly all believe this is the right draft pick for Lynch to make (thanks to the great Niners Nation for tracking these mock drafts).
For every single player in this draft, there are scenarios where you could project a solid career. The same goes for Thomas in San Francisco. He can win as a pass rusher with speed and power. He can shed blockers in gaps and could be an elite run defender. He’s smart and charismatic. There are aspects to really, really like.
But for such a “safe pick” there are a cumulative factors that would make this pick head-scratching.
The theory is you draft good football players and figure out where to play them. The problem with Thomas is that he’s best-suited to play three-technique — a position that last year’s draft pick DeForest Buckner would theoretically thrive in. The position is close to a traditional defensive tackle whose job is to create havoc over the guard. Thomas could then play defensive end over Arik Armstead, but are the 49ers already giving up on the 2015 first round pick. So now you want to play everyone out of position because Thomas is the best player on the board? Sounds counterintuitive.
Playing Thomas at the LEO pass rushing position isn’t fair to him. He won’t be able to meet the expectations of sacking the quarterback 10 times a year. That’s not his skill set. His skill set is versatility and run-stopping. Thomas told MMQB.com he estimates 85 percent of his snaps came at defensive tackle at Stanford. At 273 pounds, he would be one of the lightest interior defensive linemen in the NFL. It’s why there are a handful of mock drafts projecting Jamal Adams, Malik Hooker, Leonard Fournette or Marshon Lattimore instead.
It’s not something that will be admittedly publicly, but the word towering expectations will exist for a draft pick taken this high. There are no ifs, and’s or buts: The No. 2 overall pick in the draft has to become a Pro Bowler, at the minimum. Other No. 2 overall picks since 2000 include players who will be considered for the Pro Football Hall of Fame — Julius Peppers, Calvin Johnson, Ndamukong Suh, Von Miller.
Is Solomon Thomas that player? Can the 49ers put Thomas in a position to succeed for years? Is he the center piece of an entire defense?
It’s almost as if the 49ers are trying to jam together too many puzzle pieces if they add Thomas. Drafting a defensive linemen for a third straight year this high in the draft feels like a crude waste of resources. The Los Angeles Rams have spent gallons of picks and money on defensive linemen, and while it’s the strength of their team, it’s led to virtually zero success.
Trading down makes the most sense for the 49ers. Even if it’s just an extra third-round pick, the 49ers have to be in love with the player they take. A safety, a linebacker, a wide receiver, a pass rusher, even a quarterback would be acceptable. The Bay Area should be going to bed giddy Thursday night about the newest 49er. They have to have a plan for him to succeed.
Shanahan and Lynch are a team. But it’s been made clear the head coach focused on free agency, while the GM is running the show for the draft. This pick is huge for Lynch’s resume. This is his pick.