Considering the season Russell Westbrook is putting together, this one might catch people by surprise.
Basketball Reference, one of the most reliable places to find statistics for NBA players past and present, has Kevin Durant as their odds on favorite to win this year’s NBA MVP award. The site states that the tracker is built on a model that uses previous results to predict future winners.
“This list does not represent the opinion of this site. Rather, these are the players that the voters are likely to target (maximum two players per team).”
The chart changes with every game, but here are the site’s current standings, along with the probability it gives every player to win:
- Kevin Durant – 39.7%
- James Harden – 23.9%
- Russell Westbrook – 14.7%
- Stephen Curry – 6.4%
- Chris Paul – 6.1%
- LeBron James – 4.3%
- Jimmy Butler – 1.9%
- Blake Griffin – 1.8%
- Kawhi Leonard – 1.7%
- Kevin Love – 0.9%
If you had a vote, and based it solely on statistics, Durant’s old teammate Russell Westbrook likely would already have the award signed, sealed, and delivered, as he’s currently on pace to be the first player since Oscar Robinson to average a triple-double for an entire NBA season.
Most likely holding Westbrook back, however – at least in the eyes of the voters – will be his team’s record. Since 1983, almost every NBA MVP has come from a team that finished the season with a 1 or 2-seed in the playoffs. Only two players have defied those odds: Karl Malone and Michael Jordan, and their teams both ended up with the 3-seed.
It’s not like KD hasn’t been putting up monster numbers of his own. He leads the Warriors with 27.0 PPG, and is second on the team to only the Warriors’ motor engine, Draymond Green, with 8.4 RPG. His additional 4.7 assists per game are nothing to sneeze at either and are good for 3rd on the team.
Durant’s offensive numbers have always spoken for themselves. This year it may be his defensive contributions that have him hoisting the Maurice Podoloff Trophy.
Durant has been a major factor on the defensive side of the ball, blocking 1.8 shots per game, adding up 1.5 steals. The season is still young – but if it ended today – his rebound rate, steal rate and block rate would be the highest of his career. Oh, and his 2.2 turnovers per game would be the lowest average of his career.
These defensive numbers can probably be attributed to the Warriors asking Durant to play a different position than he’s used to. Basketball Reference currently shows Durant has played 39% of his minutes at small forward, 60% at power forward, and 1% at center. Considering he averaged 13% of his minutes at shooting guard, 71% at small forward, and 16% at power forward (not to mention zero minutes at center) this is a drastic change from what he was expected to do in OKC.
We’re still a long way away from Durant driving off into the sunset in a shiny new KIA. But in the eyes of Basketball Reference, KD…you the real (current) MVP.