In the overreaction nature of the NFL, some fans and members of the media have already convinced themselves Colin Kaepernick will be a suitable option as San Francisco’s starting quarterback in 2017.
Slow your roll.
Chip Kelly is finding a rhythm with the play calling and Kaepernick — besides his 32nd ranked completion percentage — is making big plays. It’s encouraging and the reason many of us called for a switch weeks ago. But a consistent Kaepernick is not gospel. People should understand that.
So while they look to reset the entire culture and makeup of the franchise after a 1-10 start to the season, the 49ers need to be careful they don’t get lured into the same familiar trap at quarterback. Betting on the fact Kaepernick has had a mid-career epiphany and loading up again on defense in the draft is not smart. It’s dangerous.
The vicious cycle of searching for a quarterback on their own roster has to end in Santa Clara and I discussed why on The KJ Podcast.
“What are going to do, fix the defense with Myles Garrett and say Kap’s going to play consistently for an entire 16-game season and they will all of a sudden become a winner? I don’t see that. Chip Kelly year two with Kaepernick, I see 5-11? 6-10? Is that the step you want? Then what do you do in 2018? ‘Well, Kap was better, but he wasn’t really what we need at quarterback.’ There have to be other options available and a new talent evaluator should openly tell the media we need a franchise quarterback. Stop minimizing the quarterback position.”
Three quick reminders:
A) Don’t fall in love with statistics. After 10 losses in a row, people see 293 yards, 115 yards and three touchdowns and tend to feel tickled inside. Kelly’s offenses in Philadelphia generally wracked up yards no matter who was slinging the rock — a credit to his coaching.
B) We’ve seen this situation before. Blaine Gabbert beat the Bears late last season, played mistake free football late in December and people mistakingly thought he could be a solution at the position. They were wrong and it was a reason why the 49ers wasted another season.
C) When you don’t have a franchise quarterback, you don’t have an ID to get into the club. You aren’t really even really in the NFL, you just play games on Sunday. You have to throw darts at the board. Expecting to find a Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott in the third or fourth round is a flawed strategy.
Quarterbacks do not grow on trees. They are hard to find and can set your franchise back quite awhile if you whiff on one early in the draft or free agency. The 49ers are lucky they even have a quarterback that’s playing well. Keeping Kaepernick (due $19 million) as a backup next season is not entirely out of the question. And remember, Kaepernick has the right to stay on this team next year. Kelly will probably want him to.
But if you are okay with anything less than a franchise quarterback at the position, your chances of building a contender rely upon too many different factors — staying healthy, being able to run the football, an incredible defense. Those are so many ducks that have to be lined in a row. Those are harder stars to align.
Run-first, defensive teams rarely win Super Bowls. Ask Joe Montana and Steve Young about it.