If Colin Kaepernick walks into Sunday’s game against the Buffalo Bills and looks like an average NFL quarterback, the 49ers will reap major rewards on offense and Chip Kelly will be praised as a genius.
After an analyzation the film so far in 2016, Kelly has actually been scheming his rag-tag wide receiving corps to get open. Had Blaine Gabbert hit Torrey Smith in the Cowboys game and Rod Streater in the Cardinals game, he would’ve kept his starting job.
Those late night sleepovers Kelly’s been having in Santa Clara are working schematically. Now it’s up to Kaepernick to deliver the football accurately and make the right decisions. Easier said than done.
While Kelly tailors his game plan to try and make Kap 2.0 as successful as possible, there’s a good chance he watches the 2015 season and deems the film a complete mulligan. Offensive coordinator Geep Chryst’s pathetic play-calling teamed with a repulsive offensive line play paralyzed the 49ers on offense. You can argue Kaepernick’s game started falling apart in 2014 under Jim Harbaugh, but he’s had little help in rebooting his career with a well-versed coaching staff.
If Kelly can somehow prop up Kaepernick from the depths of despair, it’ll be an extraordinary feat. His job? Highlight three major strengths Kaepernick displayed in the 2012 and 2013 seasons: deep passing, play-action throws and his rushing ability.
Remember when Kaepernick was one of the most accurate deep passers in the NFL? In 2013, the only two current NFL quarterbacks who completed a higher percentage of deep passes were Jay Cutler and Nick Foles, the latter was of course coached by Kelly. Enter Torrey Smith, who was also once upon a time one of the best deep threats in the league. Expect Kelly to concoct some chemistry between these two players.
Also in 2013, 28 percent of the 49ers’ pass plays were of the play-action variety, and the team finished 3rd in the NFL in DVOA according to football outsiders.
As for Kaepernick’s running ability, the Gabbert has 39 QB rushes in 2016, 10 more than any other quarterback around the league. Kaepernick had eight carries for 54 yards in the preseason against the Chargers. You could expect similar numbers against the Bills.
While 2014 and 2015 were an entirely different story for Kaepernick, arm talent shouldn’t have rapidly eroded like his has. Theoretically, Kelly’s precise coaching style could help repair some accuracy issues. There should still be some honey left in Kaepernick’s talent jar.
Hard work is being put in. The 49ers’ offensive staff has spent months marrying Kaepernick’s footwork to his eyes in the pocket. He still has a frantic windup and delivery when humming the football, but there’s one last shred of hope that a different set of coaches can define what went wrong with Kap.
There’s also other reasons analysts always say Kelly’s system would fit like a glove for Kaepernick. It’s not an overly complex system for quarterbacks; decision-making is often made for you. Kelly’s rhythmic passing offense makes it so there’s very little time to think the pocket. It’s more about reading routes than it is about reading defenses. That’s a major plus for Kap
There was once upon a time defensive coordinators had nightmares over the things Kaepernick could do on a football field. Nobody is ready to say he can return to his 2013 level of play, when the 49ers (12-4) dominated the league. There was also once upon a time where Kelly made the playoffs with Foles and nearly did with Mark Sanchez, too.
There will be internal debate amongst 49ers fans that they aren’t even rooting for Kaepernick to play well. People want a higher draft pick and are convinced Kaepernick is no longer a viable long term solution.
But as Kelly remodels an old Ferrari, he might realize Kaepernick’s skill set is not completely deteriorated. Tapping into his deep passing, play-action and rushing skills could help the 49ers shock the Bills and the rest of the NFL.