The Giants passed their first postseason test in incredible fashion with Wednesday’s 3-0 victory over the New York Mets in the NL Wild Card game, but now face a different animal in the NLDS, a Chicago Cubs powerhouse that was the best team in the major leagues by a country mile.
In case you weren’t aware, Chicago hasn’t won a World Series in over 100 years, but this 2016 squad might be the most complete team they’ve had since then. In addition to finishing with the league’s best record, Chicago scored at total of 252 more runs than their opponents in 2016. For perspective, the Boston Red Sox finished second in that category, with a run differential of 187. It’s a telling and significant number, and the Cubs are an intimidating and incredibly well-rounded bunch, finishing third in runs scored and first in runs allowed during the regular season.
Conversely, the Giants are trying to win their fourth title in six years, but squeaked their way into the playoffs on the season’s final day, and experienced a second-half free fall after having a better record than Chicago at the All-Star break.
That’s all irrelevant now, especially as the Giants once again seem to be peaking at the right time, winning their last five games, including another legendary playoff performance by Madison Bumgarner in Wednesday night’s victory.
Much of the Giants’ free-fall had to do with their bats going dormant, ranking 12th in the NL in OPS after the break, but starting pitching was a consistent strength for San Francisco in 2016 and will certainly be a key against a Chicago team with a staff that’s just as impressive.
The Cubs edged the Giants in the season series 4-3, and the seven contests were defined by quality pitching on both sides, with neither team scoring more than three runs in four of the games, and both teams doing it only once.
Unsurprisingly, the Giants were most successful in their matchups against the Cubs this season with Bumgarner on the hill, winning two of their four contests with the big lefty on the bump. Bumgarner outdueled Cubs ace Jake Arrieta in a 3-2 victory on September 3, a preview of the matchup we’ll see in Game 3 at AT&T Park. Bumgarner is an even more imposing beast in the postseason, but he won’t be able to pitch every game (we think) so the rest of San Francisco’s talented rotation will have to buckle down against Chicago’s potent bats.
Luckily for San Francisco, the Cubs don’t hit right-handed pitching nearly as well as lefties, and the Giants have two talented right-handers in Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija starting Games 1 and 2. Samardzija struggled in a September 1st appearance against his former team, lasting only four innings, but seems to be peaking at the right time, allowing just three runs in his last 19 and 2/3 innings. Cueto pitched well in his appearance against Chicago, giving up just one run in seven innings, with the Cubs going 5-for-25 against him.
Cueto will face a resurgent Jon Lester in Game 1, who has an impressive playoff resume, and was utterly dominant the last time he faced the Giants in early September, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning. Back in May, Lester was knocked around at AT&T Park, giving up five runs in 2 and 2/3 innings.
Wildly unpredictable lefty Matt Moore is the fourth arm in the Giants rotation. It will be interesting to see if the Giants elect to trot out Moore against a Cubs lineup that has put up a .807 OPS against lefties, or have Cueto make the start on short rest in what could be a series-deciding Game 4.
The Giants blew a league-leading 30 save opportunities and the bullpen remains the biggest x-factor, especially in this series with Chicago. Four of the seven regular season contests were decided by a single run, meaning San Francisco will likely have to rely on its unreliable arms in the ‘pen to hold onto to slim leads in high pressure situations. The starters going deep into games can help alleviate this issue, but the Cubs are too good with the bats for anybody to expect the Giants to coast with their rotation.
Luckily it seems as if the Giants have sorted out their issues at closer, with Sergio Romo notching four consecutive saves since being given ninth inning duties on September 20. The group also should be well rested, with Giants starters going at least seven innings in their last five games.
The value of rest is another storyline in this series as the Cubs haven’t played a meaningful baseball game in weeks, while the Giants have been playing with their season on the line for the better part of a month.
If the Cubs pick up right where they left off, it’s hard to imagine them having an issue with anybody, especially playing three of the potential five games at the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. But the Giants have won six playoff series in the last six years against teams who had better regular season records, and after watching Wednesday night’s game it sure seems like they once again have the playoff mojo that’s propelled them to three titles.
Will the Cubs take another step towards breaking the curse or can the Giants make another magical postseason run? This one is going to be fun.