First things first: Chip Kelly has to start to Colin Kaepernick Friday against the Green Bay Packers in the all-important third preseason game.
It’s irresponsible to let a quarterback competition fester for months and not give the second guy a fair shot. Now that his arm fatigue has finally subsided and Kaepernick is reportedly making big plays in practice, Kelly really doesn’t have an option here.
In a scenario that should not be startling, Blaine Gabbert has left the door wide open for his competitor to storm right through it. If Kaepernick makes quick decisions, moves the 49ers offense and puts a touchdown or two on the scoreboard, he will have called the 49ers’ bluff. Media members, fans and possibly even San Francisco teammates will begin pining for Kap to start Week 1 on Monday Night Football — sample size be damned.
It’s detrimental to a football team to let a quarterback competition last this long, but there is a reason Kelly hasn’t already named his guy. GM Trent Baalke may love Gabbert’s low-risk brand of football, but Kelly certainly hasn’t been swooning about Gabbert’s unreliable summer. The 49ers’ coach hasn’t uttered a critical word about Kaepernick since walking in the building in January. It’s believable to think Kelly favors No. 7, but needs the proper evidence to tab him the starter.
Kelly was asked why the quarterback decision is taking so long earlier in August.
“Because you could be wrong,” he said, flatly. His decision is not about who is the right choice; it’s about who is the least wrong choice.
Realistically, the odds of a revival against Green Bay aren’t in Kap’s favor, given all the time off, the lack of weapons surrounding him and the fact that the Packers will game plan for blitzing and disguised coverages. He really needed growing pains against the Texans and Broncos to get a better handle on Kelly’s system. And we’ve argued that winning the Week 1 starting job for the 49ers has the potential to be disastrous. The Rams, Panthers and Seahawks’ defenses will be fully prepared to ambush whoever is under center, setting up the backup for an October renewal.
But it’s worth noting Kaepernick’s sins from a year ago have quelled considerably. Part of that has to do with Gabbert being so underwhelming in training camp and in the preseason. But part of it is human nature. 49ers fans want to see a Kaepernick resurrection. A Chris Biderman starting QB poll has Kaepernick at 62 percent and Gabbert at just 24.
An improved offensive line will help his chances against the Packers. The boys upfront clearly are the strength of the offense heading into 2016; one year ago they were arguably the worst unit in the NFL. More protection in the pocket leads to less panicking from quarterbacks. If every other player on the roster was given a clean slate by Kelly, so should Kaepernick.
In an interesting subplot, this decision may not be entirely Kelly’s alone. Remember when Anthony Davis was slated to return to training camp? Kelly didn’t give that a green-light until he talked with veteran leaders, Joe Staley, Torrey Smith, NaVorro Bowman and a handful of others. The reports of Kelly’s personality change aren’t just training camp fodder. This is a more inclusive head coach. San Francisco will be more of a bureaucracy compared to Kelly’s full-on totalitarian state in Philadelphia.
What if Kaepernick is so-so? What if he goes 11-for-18, 145 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT with some hesitancy and inaccurate throws. Isn’t that the same exact thing Gabbert has showed in two preseason games? Kaepernick’s big play ability gives him the higher ceiling — but his faults give him the lower floor.
Kap certainly has his flaws. So does Gabbert. So does Kelly. So does this entire 49ers roster. Obviously, consistency equals playing time, but players on this downtrodden team should be judged more on their potential and less for their blemishes.
The stage is set for Kaepernick to win back a job many thought he’d have for an entire decade. And if he plays well enough, Kelly is going to have a tough time ignoring results.