The next big date of the offseason is here, as the deadline for teams to add Rule 5 Draft eligible players to their 40-man roster is Nov. 14.
For any team, the Rule 5 Draft is a game of risk versus reward. Teams must consider how much value placing a player who likely won’t contribute immediately on the 40-man roster would be compared to guaranteeing said player can’t get poached from another team.
Players eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this year, essentially, are college selections from the 2020 MLB Draft who haven’t yet been added to a 40-man roster, and many international signings from 2019.
The Giants picked up Blake Sabol in last year’s Rule 5 Draft, carrying him on the active roster for the entire year to keep him in the organization. That’s typically a major hurdle for teams to overcome; the players eligible for the Rule 5 Draft never have any MLB experience, yet they must play a full MLB season to stick.
Before looking at who the Giants might have to add to their 40-man roster, a timely exercise would be to figure out where their 40-man roster stands in the first place. Given the contract option deadline has passed, there’s a sliver more clarity now than a week ago.
Here is a version of what the Giants could be heading into the Rule 5 roster crunch deadline with, listed in order of most to least likely to be on the team.
Starting Pitchers
- Logan Webb
- Alex Cobb
- Kyle Harrison
- Keaton Winn
- Tristan Beck
- Ross Stripling
- Anthony DeSclafani
- Sean Hjelle
Relief Pitchers
- Camilo Doval
- Tyler Rogers
- Taylor Rogers
- Ryan Walker
- Luke Jackson
- Cole Waites
- Randy Rodriguez
- José Cruz
- Thomas Szapucki
Outfielders
- Michael Conforto
- Mitch Haniger
- Luis Matos
- Tyler Fitzgerald
- Wade Meckler
- Mike Yastrzemski
- Austin Slater
- Heliot Ramos
Infielders
- Thairo Estrada
- Patrick Bailey
- Marco Luciano
- Casey Schmitt
- Wilmer Flores
- Blake Sabol
- LaMonte Wade Jr.
- J.D. Davis
- David Villar
- Brett Wisely
- Joey Bart
That list gives the Giants 36 players on the 40-man roster spots — before any free agent acquisitions or trades. Clearing more space would require designating players for assignment.
Roster spots are going to be valuable for San Francisco, given its clear need to reimagine the roster. Still, the club has ample room to tinker.
Some of that room could be used to protect a player or two — probably not more — from the Rule 5 Draft. SF has plenty of eligible players, but no surefire candidates. Three stand out.
Aeverson Arteaga, SS
Arteaga may have the best case to get added to the 40-man, and the case is simple: what’s the opportunity cost of keeping the most promising non-Marco Luciano shortstop in the system?
The 20-year-old from Venezuela could start the year at Double-A. Last year, he hit a career-high 17 home runs, though that came with dips in average and on-base percentage. He’s only going to get stronger, and the question will become whether he can balance power and plate discipline.
Since Arteaga is so far away from the big leagues, it’s unlikely a team would pick him in the Rule 5 Draft. But a rebuilding club could still look at his potential and stash him on the bench for the year.
Losing Arteaga would put even more of the Giants’ long-term eggs in the Marco Luciano basket. That wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing, but having an in-house backup option in case Luciano doesn’t pan out could be worth burning a roster spot in 2024.
Kai-Wei Teng, SP
Teng spent the majority of 2023 in Triple-A with the River Cats, posting a solid 4.22 ERA in a hitter-friendly league. He fanned 96 batters in 79 innings for Sacramento.
The starter walked 5.5 batters per nine innings — a red flag for any team willing to take a flier on him as a Rule 5 Draft pick — but his swing-and-miss arsenal and durability gives him starter potential. He’ll be 25 years old this year and upper minors pitching depth is always important.
Teng might be able to help a team right away. He didn’t get plucked in the Rule 5 Draft last year, but that could change this time around.
Grant McCray, CF
Ranked seventh in San Francisco’s farm by MLB.com, McCray may be the most defensively gifted and athletic outfielder in the system.
In 127 games with Eugene last year, McCray swiped 52 bags and hit 14 home runs from a premium position. Even though his strikeout rate was high, repeating that production would elevate him through the minors quickly.
McCray is probably a year or two away from the big leagues, so a team plucking him in the Rule 5 Draft would still be taking a risk. But his traits as a defensive specialist and pinch runner could justify doing so.
The Giants need to get younger, faster and better defensively. There should be a premium on keeping players like McCray, who check all of those boxes, in the organization.
Other eligible players to consider:
Brett Auerbach, Erik Miller, Nick Swiney, Victor Bericoto, Trevor McDonald, Ryan Murphy, Jimmy Glowenke, Logan Wyatt, R.J. Dabovich, Carson Ragsdale, Jairo Pomares