If there’s a bromide that applies to this Giants offseason, it’s that they can’t simply run it back.
A 79-83 team that ranked last in stolen bases, set a franchise record for striking out, didn’t hit for nearly enough power and struggled defensively needs substantial upgrades to return to true contention. To achieve the type of relevance the franchise should seek, they’ll need even more than roster improvements; they’ll need star power.
The quickest avenue to both objectives is making signings at the top of a free agent class that includes Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cody Bellinger, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell and Matt Chapman.
But free agency can be capricious, as Giants fans all too familiar with finishing in second place for stars know.
This winter, pursuing trades could be the more fruitful path for the Giants. Their roster appears to have certain areas of depth that need consolidation, and their areas to improve upon are ubiquitous.
President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi’s biggest trade in San Francisco was acquiring Kris Bryant at the 2021 trade deadline. While that’s not a signature move, it proves Zaidi is willing to dip into the trade market.
Zaidi has been consistently open in public comments about the team’s willingness to execute trades this winter.
“We’ve talked about athleticism and defense. Some of that you can get in free agency, but some of it may have to come in trades,” Zaidi most recently told The San Francisco Chronicle.
Below are some completely fake, hypothetical trades the Giants could have interest in making. They shouldn’t be viewed as endorsements, but more so as thought exercises.
Trade target 1: Juan Soto
Soto should be viewed as the pipe dream.
Already one of the best hitters in the game, at just 25 years old, Soto has already changed teams once via trade. This time, the Padres — who reportedly took out a $50 million loan to address cash flow issues related to their payroll — could look to deal Soto as he’s set to hit free agency for the first time after this season.
Any Soto trade would probably happen during the season, not this winter, because the Padres wouldn’t want to lose him if they’re contending. It would also be tough for the Giants to pry him away as a division rival.
But since Soto will be an unrestricted free agent in 2025, the package wouldn’t cost as much as San Diego gave up to acquire him (five prospects, including C.J. Abrams and Mackenzie Gore).
Fake trade:
Giants get: Juan Soto
Padres get: Marco Luciano, Mason Black, Carson Whisenhunt, Michael Conforto
For what it’s worth, Baseball Trade Values deems this a roughly fair trade, with the Giants winning it slightly.
The Giants trade from the depth of starting pitching prospects they’ve amassed — you build the farm to break it down — without losing Kyle Harrison. Conforto could help the Padres compete in 2024, but also is cheaper than Soto and would come off their books at the end of the year. With Conforto’s opt-in, the Giants have more outfielders than they can bring back.
If the Padres demanded Harrison, the Giants could make that happen, too. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden floated Harrison, Luis Matos and Walker Martin for Soto. Without a guaranteed extension for Soto, that’s probably too much for San Francisco to give, but isn’t outlandish.
Either way, if Soto becomes available, the Giants have the capital — and the urgency, to put together a compelling package. They could put the ball in the Padres’ hands as to if they could stomach sending the three-time All-Star to a division foe.
Trade target 2: Pete Alonso
The Mets’ situation after last year’s debacle is murky, with 2024 shaping up to essentially amount to a gap year.
And if New York doesn’t intend to compete this season, why hold onto Alonso? The slugger is set to hit free agency in 2025 and will be due over $20 million in arbitration this season.
Alonso has averaged 46 home runs per 162 games in his career. His power is exactly what the Giants have been searching for in the middle of their lineup. And instead of waiting a year to maybe lull him to San Francisco, the Giants could have the chance to add him right now for the low, low price of prospects.
While it might not make much sense for the Mets to keep Alonso, he remains the face of their franchise. There’s real intangible value. For that reason, a team may have to overpay for him.
A team like the Giants.
Fake trade:
Giants get: Pete Alonso
Mets get: Tristan Beck, Keaton Winn, Hayden Birdsong
The Mets would be exchanging an expensive first baseman for two young, cost-controlled players in Beck and Winn who proved they’re ready to start MLB games right now. New York doesn’t have a clear path to fill out a competitive starting rotation in the near-term (without again splurging in free agency); none of their top 100 prospects are pitchers.
Baseball Trade Values considers that package an overpay for the Giants. Given Alonso’s history with the Mets, they’d probably disagree.
Trade target 3: Matt McLain
The Reds have a burgeoning young core of position players, but need some help on the pitching side. The Giants are the inverse.
The two clubs make for great hypothetical trade partners.
Matt McLain has raked at every level since Cincinnati drafted him in 2021. In his first 89 MLB games, the infielder posted a .864 OPS, hitting .290 with power. He also swiped 14 bags and graded out as a positive fielder at shortstop and second base.
What’s not to like?
Fake trade:
Giants get: Matt McLain
Reds get: Kyle Harrison
Both teams might instantly hang up the phone. That’s when fake trades get fun.
Harrison is the Giants’ top prospect, a potentially generational left-handed starter. He sure looked like it when the De La Salle product punched out 11 in his home debut. He also looked excellent in his final outing — five scoreless frames against the Dodgers.
You have to give something to get something. If the Giants are as high on Carson Whisenhunt, Mason Black and Hayden Birdsong internally as they are Harrison, it might make sense to sell high on the top prospect.
Baseball Trade Values surprisingly considers McLain a much more valuable asset than Harrison despite being two full years older.
Harrison has 200-inning seasons on his mind. His work ethic and competitiveness will never be a question. He’s a hometown kid. The Giants trading him away, especially for anything less than a superstar, would be shocking.
As for the Reds, Jonathan India might also become available, and would cost significantly less than McLain. Outfielder Will Benson could also bring positive change to San Francisco’s outfield mix.
Trade target 4: Dylan Cease
Cease is coming off a rough year in which he posted a 4.58 ERA, and his Baseball Reference page ominously makes his 2022 Cy Young-caliber season look like an anomaly.
But since 2021, Cease ranks fourth in strikeout rate and has amassed the eighth most WAR among pitchers, per Fangraphs. The 27-year-old also has two more seasons of team control, making him immensely valuable.
It’s unclear what direction the White Sox are heading, but they’ll reportedly take calls on Cease this winter.
Fake trade:
Giants get: Dylan Cease
White Sox get: Patrick Bailey
The Giants get an ace to pair with Logan Webb, but lose potentially their franchise catcher in the process.
Now, why would they do that?
Bailey had a tremendous rookie season, ranking as the top framer in baseball and among the best defensive catchers in the league. He was a finalist for the NL Gold Glove award and showed glimpses at the plate as a switch hitter. Giants pitchers raved about working with him, and most gave him autonomy over game-calling.
But Bailey’s bat was well below league average and he wore down in the second half. For him to truly become a cornerstone, his hit tool will have to improve, as will his conditioning. Both are entirely possible, if not likely.
There’s a worst-case scenario with Bailey, though — one that would put his value at an all-time high this winter. If Bailey’s offensive skills never come around to a starter’s level, and MLB installs the automated balls and strikes system, how much value would he still have?
Bailey might be untouchable. That would be completely warranted and show great organizational confidence in his potential. There’s still a risk that league rule changes — which the commissioner appears to be pursuing — could eat away at a lot of what makes Bailey special.
Trade target 5: Lars Nootbaar
A fantastic defender in center field with elite chase rates and serviceable power? Sign the Giants up.
The Cardinals are in desperate need of pitching — both in the rotation and bullpen — and they might need to part with one of their most promising young players to acquire that.
Fake trade:
Giants get: Lars Nootbaar, Willson Contreras
Cardinals get: Camilo Doval, Tristan Beck, Keaton Winn, Sean Hjelle, Joey Bart
Contreras’ contract makes him somewhat of a liability, but the Giants could sure use his 20-homer power. Nootbaar would make them more dynamic and younger. St. Louis immediately overhauls their pitching staff, and gets to take a flier on Bart.
Doval has emerged over the past two seasons as one of the most dominant closers in MLB, but closers have historically been overvalued and their stars often burn out quickly. The Giants also have the bullpen infrastructure — both Rogers and Ryan Walker have closer potential — to replace Doval if needed.
If San Francisco deals Beck and Winn in any deal (or Harrison, for that matter) it’ll become even more imperative that they add a starter in free agency.
Trade target 6: Corbin Burnes
Burnes has been in trade rumors because he likely won’t re-sign with Milwaukee once he hits free agency after the 2024 season.
The 29-year-old is a perennial All-Star candidate and has the rare capability of reaching 200 innings consistently. He’d be a perfect fit in Oracle Park, where his low home run rate would only improve. He and Webb would be as tough a 1-2 punch as they come.
Fake trade:
Giants get: Corbin Burnes, Rowdy Tellez
Brewers get: Casey Schmitt, LaMonte Wade Jr., Mason Black
The Giants improve in the rotation and get some thump in Tellez, while Milwuakee improves both at first and second — two of their most deficient positions last year. Mason Black is the real prize, as he’s a top-10 prospect in SF’s system and should be ready to contribute in 2024. For the Brewers, he’d likely be a better fit in their organization than Burnes in his walk year.
We’re getting warmer.
Trade target 7: Jarren Duran
Duran could be the Giants’ single best chance to get younger, more dynamic, and stronger up the middle.
After a miserable start to his MLB career, Duran broke out in 2023 with 34 doubles and 24 steals in 102 games. He’s 27 and under team control through 2028, making him a piece to build around. He ranks in the 96th percentile in sprint speed and is one of the best base runners in MLB.
The only reasons Boston, under new president Craig Breslow, could move him is if they think last season was an aberration or if they feel the need to instantly upgrade their rotation.
Fake trade:
Giants get: Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu
Red Sox get: Kyle Harrison, Anthony DeSclafani
Harrison would immediately become Boston’s most exciting starter since Chris Sale joined the team, and the Giants would get two potential impact outfielders. The Red Sox could take a flier on DeSclafani, as they have with several other veteran starters in recent years, and make a playoff push.
Harrison is probably too much to give up for Duran, but the Red Sox would probably only listen to offers with Harrison in them.
Trade target 8: Nolan Gorman
Gorman isn’t far behind Nootbaar in the pecking order of St. Louis’ enticing crop of young position players, so he’ll still come at a cost.
The infielder fits into the Giants’ ethos of positional versatility, but is more bat-first. Even while hitting 27 home runs last year, Gorman’s high strikeout numbers prevented him from having an elite OPS (he still finished with an impressive .805 mark).
Under the hood, Gorman’s metrics are stellar, giving him the makings as a potentially elite hitter.
The Giants need some of those.
Fake trade:
Giants get: Nolan Gorman
Cardinals get: Keaton Winn, Tristan Beck, Walker Martin, Bryce Eldridge
This would be quite a haul for the Cardinals, but it still isn’t close to fair value for him, per Baseball Trade Values.
San Francisco would be sending its first and second round pick from its most recent draft, plus two pitchers who could help the Cardinals immediately in Beck and Winn, for an infielder who might end up being more of a designated hitter.
This isn’t the cleanest fit. Gorman is certainly talented enough for the Giants to call on him, but probably not up to the caliber of including Harrison in a deal.
Trade target 9: Tyler Glasnow
When he’s healthy, Glasnow is as nasty as any pitcher in the game. He just hasn’t been healthy enough to rack up the accolades.
Glasnow’s 3.03 ERA since 2019 ranks 15th among starters. His strikeout rate in that span ranks third.
But Glasnow could be on the table because of his back-loaded contract the Rays signed him to that owes him $25 million in his walk year this season. Tampa Bay historically hasn’t spent that kind of cash, and may not be confident in its ability to retain the righty long-term.
Fake trade:
Giants get: Tyler Glasnow
Rays get: Carson Whisenhunt, Wade Meckler, Adrian Sugastey
Whisenhunt could be the next great left-handed starter, and Meckler’s video game minor league numbers still mean something, right? Minor league catching depth is important, and the Giants have always liked Sugastey (No. 25 in MLB.com’s Giants prospect rankings).
Both teams might have to hold meetings about this one.
Trade target 10: Sandy Alcantara
The runaway 2022 National League Cy Young winner, like Cease, struggled in 2023. But struggling for Alcantara still featured 184.2 innings of posting.
The 28-year-old has been durable, but will miss the entire 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery. He’s still under contract for the next three years after that (including a club option in 2027).
Acquiring Alcantara would be risky, but there’s a whole lot of upside if he can recover from Tommy John as other pitchers have.
Fake trade:
Giants get: Sandy Alcantara
Marlins get: Vaun Brown, Austin Slater, Tristan Beck
Jesús Sánchez needs a right-handed hitting platoon partner, after all.
The Giants clear up their outfield mix just a bit, and pluck out of their depth of young back-end starters to do so. Brown (No. 13 Giants prospect) had a much better 2022 than 2023 in the minors, but still has tremendous potential.
Adding an ace who won’t pitch in 2024 obviously doesn’t immediately solve SF’s need. But perhaps they make a move like this in addition to another signing, and reload in 2025 with an elite top-three.
The Marlins just replaced general manager Kim Ng for no apparent reason. Who knows what they’re thinking?