Michael Conforto is coming back to the Giants, complicating their offseason plans and reflecting the faults in last winter’s offseason haul.
Conforto, 30, is opting into his $18 million deal to remain in San Francisco, per multiple reports. Because the outfielder struggled in 2023, he was unlikely to earn more guaranteed money annually from a new team, but is making 2024 potentially his last chance to prove he’s worthy of a multi-year deal.
Conforto returned to the field last year after missing all of 2022 due to shoulder surgery. For the Giants, he hit .239 with 15 home runs. His OPS+ was 99, one point shy of the league average.
The New York Post’s Jon Heyman was the first to report Conforto’s decision.
With Conforto returning, the Giants suddenly have a crowded outfield room, with a mix of veterans and recently graduated prospects. It’s possible Conforto, Mitch Haniger, Mike Yastrzemski, Austin Slater, Tyler Fitzgerald, Luis Matos, Heliot Ramos and Wade Meckler see time.
San Francisco’s stated goal is to get more athletic and better defensively; to do that, they may have to hand more innings to the younger players. But the above list wouldn’t be super conducive to that. Conforto’s return could make the Giants’ decisions on whether to tender contracts to Yastrzemski and Slater more difficult.
The Giants could also seek to trade from their depth to consolidate.
Conforto’s decision could also complicate the Giants’ targets in free agency. Not only does Conforto’s $18 million bring SF closer (but still not within striking distance) of the competitive balance tax, it may make them less inclined to pursue an outfielder like Cody Bellinger.
Conforto still has the potential to break out in 2024; from 2017 to 2020, he averaged a 134 OPS+ and 34 homers per 162 games. But if he again performs at an average rate, that $18 million will look tough.
The Giants’ round of 1-plus-1 deals last winter hasn’t panned out as intending, underscoring the flaws in the player option contract structure Farhan Zaidi has often utilized. Those who sign a two-year deal with a player option in the second are only inclined to return if they get injured or underperform in the first year. Conforto and Ross Stripling are coming back to the Giants on big salary numbers after tough seasons, while Sean Manaea, who finished strong, didn’t provide much value and is still departing.
That contract format has opened up more risk than reward for the Giants. If Conforto and Stripling snap back to their potential in contract years, though, SF will be validated.