For the Giants to reach the postseason, Joctober has to come early.
It’s unfair to expect a single player to lift up a 28-man roster — that’s not how baseball works. But the Giants signed Pederson to provide power to the middle of their lineup, and that lineup has been among the league’s worst since July.
Pederson is San Francisco’s highest-paid player, and he’s been one of their most underperforming.
The 31-year-old still has the capability of carrying an offense. He’s done so before for the Giants, and on the biggest stages for the Braves and Dodgers. In September, he has started to heat up from the plate at the most pivotal time. But his season, so far, has lagged behind the standard he set for himself. Among designated hitters, Pederson ranks eighth in Fangraphs WAR, 14th in home runs and 26th in slugging percentage.
Part of the reason Pederson has struggled this season — particularly in the field, where the Giants have needed to play him to optimize their lineup for power — can be traced to his conditioning. Asked if he’s in the type of shape he wants to be in at this point of the year, Pederson told KNBR “I feel good right now.”
At the beginning of spring training, Pederson was noticeably slimmer than he was in 2022. Manager Gabe Kapler said he looked more explosive and athletic. The Giants planned on a full-time designated hitter role for Pederson, but have always valued versatility and hoped he’d be able to play in the outfield or even first base in a pinch.
That hasn’t panned out.
Pederson admitted that the season — when he focuses more on baseball work than the weight room — “is always tougher than the offseason” when it comes to conditioning.
“Your body just fatigues a little bit, don’t work out as much,” Pederson said. “You’re more focused on the game and doing stuff on that.”
Pederson generated -15 defensive runs saved last year and graded out as the third-worst defender in baseball, per Fielding Bible. When he accepted the $19.6 million qualifying offer for 2023, he said he could prepare better and vowed to improve in the outfield.
This year, Pederson has played significantly fewer innings in the field as the Giants shield him, but has been worse on a per-game basis. His ultimate zone rating (UZR) per 150 games is a career-low -25.9. In a brutal loss last week in Wrigley Field, he fell on a routine fly ball.
“I messed it up,” Pederson told reporters in Chicago. “It’s frustrating when you’re scraping, grinding, trying to win games, trying to get into the playoffs. I let the team down, for sure. That play lost us the game. It doesn’t feel good.”
Pederson’s weight has been a point of contention for years. In 2017, when both were with the Dodgers, Farhan Zaidi publicly urged him to improve his conditioning.
Pederson said no similar conversations have happened in the past two seasons in which he’s been with the Giants, but that’s incredibly far-fetched. The Giants have a robust strength and conditioning staff dedicated to enhancing players’ health and performance. Their on-staff dietician is with the team daily and available to every player.
In 2017, when Zaidi made those comments, Pederson was 25-years-old and regularly playing center field for the Dodgers. A high school wide receiver, Pederson is an elite natural athlete. His sprint speed average from home plate to first in 2017 was 4.37 seconds. It’s at 4.52 seconds now, the slowest of his career.
Players naturally get slower as they age, but Pederson is only 31; Brandon Crawford, for instance, also has a 4.52 home-to-first speed at 36.
On the hitting side, Pederson’s OPS+ is down from 146 last year to 116 this season. He has hit 13 home runs, 10 shy of his All-Star season last year.
The underlying metrics, though, suggest he’s been unlucky. He grades in the 95th percentile in hard-hit rate, 90th percentile in average exit velocity, and 92nd percentile in wxOBA. Luis Robert and Mickey Moniak have robbed home runs from him.
“I hit home runs in bunches, that could easily be 13 then 17 and then they just keep coming,” Pederson said. “I’m not really worried about my power numbers. It sucks. Obviously I’d like to slug and hit more home runs, but that’s not always how the game works.”
Despite his unfortunate batted-ball luck, the Giants have still needed more from Pederson. During July and August, when the Giants slumped to a historically bad offense, Pederson hit .230 with four home runs in 49 games. SF went 21-28 in those games, falling from playoff contention to the wild card fringe.
“I think I’ve hit a lot of balls really hard,” Pederson said when asked to explain his year-over-year power dip.
“A lot that have gone at 107 or 108 (exit velocity) at 29, 30 degrees that have been outs. I’m a person who slugs in bunches, and when hits like that don’t fall, it’s hard to get a groove going. I guess I’ve just got to hit the ball harder. Usually 108 mph is pretty good. Even when you’re fat, it still usually plays.”
He’s in a tailor-made role for him — practically a full-time hitter, almost exclusively hitting with a platoon advantage — yet he’s sixth on the Giants in homers, fourth in RBI and fifth in runs scored. Something else is holding him back from thriving as much as he could. As much as the Giants expected him to.
It would never benefit any Giant to publicly criticize Pederson’s conditioning or work ethic. He’s a beloved and respected figure in the clubhouse. He connects with rookies as well as veterans, makes music suggestions to their on-field pregame playlist, talks fantasy football and plays cards.
But there’s a fine line between keeping things light and leading by example.
Before games, Pederson will often loaf through dynamic stretching in the outfield, lightly jogging or even walking as his teammates go through their progressions. He’s been known to smoke an occasional pregame cigar outside the batting cages.
The Giants under Kapler have valued pregame preparation and have high standards. Asked if his routine meets those, Pederson said “Yes.”
Every player is different. Individuals have vastly different routines, and they often know best what they need to do to prepare for a game.
Not all work comes directly before a game, or in front of the media, either. Veteran Alex Wood remembers one series this season, when Pederson was struggling, in which he stayed late after a game with hitting coach Justin Viele to get extra reps in the cage and then arrived before the rest of the team the next day, too.
“As far as baseball work goes, the guy is as locked in and focused and hard-working as you can be, for sure,” Wood, who also played with Pederson with the Dodgers, said.
It’s also important to note that nutrition isn’t a one-size-fits-all proposition. There isn’t always a simple playbook to follow — even for the best athletes in the world to optimize their conditioning. Pederson works with the team’s mental health staff to help with his flight anxiety, and it’s possible he deals with hurdles behind the scenes (though he didn’t elaborate on any when given the opportunity to).
Still, it’s easy to imagine it being frustrating if someone doesn’t appear to be putting everything he possibly can into being the best he can be. Particularly in moments when that person might be holding the team back.
One Giant, granted anonymity to speak freely, said he could see how Pederson’s approach to the game could rub some the wrong way, but stressed that the organization made clear that it expected him to DH. He added that Pederson typically arrives at the ballpark early and often hits in the cage twice as much as other teammates.
There’s little doubt that Pederson is trying to maximize his potential. He’s a consummate competitor. He hated last September, when the Giants put themselves in the position of playing meaningless baseball.
“I’ve played with Joc for a really long time,” Wood said. “All he cares about is winning. Showing up, putting our best foot forward. Him impacting us in any way he can to get to that end goal. He cares as much as anybody I’ve ever played with. He’s even directly said to me before ‘I don’t really care about the money aspect of it at all, all I want to do is be with an organization that has a chance to go to the postseason.’ That’s literally his No. 1 goal over everything.”
This is only a topic because of Pederson’s disappointing season thus far. Things can turn quickly. Over his past 17 games entering Tuesday, the two-time All-Star is slashing .327/.426/.539. He has hit two homers, a triple and three doubles in that stretch.
If those indicators hold true, and Pederson helps lead the Giants to the playoffs, none of the questions over his work ethic or conditioning will matter. He has 17 games left to rise to the occasion he relishes.
“He’s been on some pretty good teams,” Kapler said. “Been on teams that have gone to the playoffs. Has produced in big games, postseason games as well. There have been times this season where we have been dependent on guys like Casey Schmitt to carry a part of our offense, or Luis Matos to carry a part of our offense. Sometimes it’s been several young, inexperienced, unproven players. We’ve always said the guys that we’re really going to need to rely on consistently down the stretch are the Jocs and the Mitch Hanigers, the Mike Yastrzemskis, the LaMonte Wade Jr.s, the Thairo Estradas, the Wilmer Floreses.
I think Joc fits right into the middle of that group of experienced, tested players, and we’re definitely going to be leaning on him down the stretch.”