Since July 1, 377 players in MLB have stepped up to the plate at least 60 times.
Fifteen of those 377 players are Giants. Wilmer Flores, the unassuming veteran who has set his career-high in homers, is the only one in the top-25 in weighted runs created (wRC+), the most comprehensive hitting statistic.
Flores is also the only Giant in the top-50.
He’s also the only Giant in the top-75. And the top-100.
The next Giant on the wRC+ leaderboard since July 1 is Michael Conforto, at 105 wRC+. No other player is above the league average of 100. The list not pretty:
166: Conforto (105)
200: Luis Matos (97)
219: Blake Sabol (92)
254: Joc Pederson (85)
258: Thairo Estrada (84)
291: Mike Yastrzemski (74)
293: Austin Slater (73)
301: Wade Meckler (71)
328: J.D. Davis (59)
332: LaMonte Wade Jr. (58)
335: Patrick Bailey (58)
368: Brandon Crawford (25)
370: Casey Schmitt (21)
373: Paul DeJong (16)
The question everyone surely saw coming at this point of the season, then: when is someone going to give Wilmer Flores some help?
Over the last 56 games, the Giants have the worst offense in baseball. They’re 30th out of 30 teams in batting average (.215), slugging percentage (.338) and wOBA (.277). They’ve stolen half as many bases as the second to last team and are the only club with less than than 50 home runs. They’ve scored 188 runs, 27 fewer than anyone else.
The advanced numbers don’t provide much optimism, either. It’s been two months of historically bad offense; only two teams since integration have hit .215 or worse in a season.
This is what would happen if a team started swinging toothpicks instead of bats. It’s how a legitimate contender can turn into a team on the edge of the expanded postseason picture.
“We have to be more aggressive,” Giants manager Gabe Kapler told reporters after their second straight shutout loss, a defeat in Wrigley Field in which they didn’t advance a runner to second base.
“We have to have, and forgive my French, kind of a f— it mentality,” Kapler added. “And what that means is we’re walking up to the plate and we’re going to be on the offensive. We’re going to be the ones who are forcing the action, and right now, we’re a little defensive at the plate, and it’s hurting us.”
Before their two-month, team-wide slump, the Giants (70-68) had a completely serviceable offense. They were comfortably in the middle of the pack in all the important indicators. Coupled with their unconventional-yet-effective run prevention strategy, an average offense was plenty.
The above list explains what has happened since. The blame, almost squarely, falls on the veterans whom the Giants were depending on this season.
The front office built this roster for Bailey, Meckler, Schmitt, Matos, Heliot Ramos and Marco Luciano to support the veterans, not supplant them. The rookies have held up their end.
Every time a new rookie has debuted for the Giants, they’re like a magic mushroom in Mario Kart — they provide only a fleeting burst. This year, that should be quite enough. But the veterans haven’t bottled up that energy and propelled it toward any sustained momentum.
The Giants’ established hitters have just less than a month left to turn it around. All they need is to regress positively towards their previous track records.
There are three batters who the Giants need to start helping out San Francisco — and Flores — the most.
Joc Pederson
Pre-July 1: 48 games, .260/.385/.473 (.858 OPS), 8 HR, 30 RBI
Post-July 1: 51 games, .217/.313/.357 (.670 OPS), 4 HR, 14 RBI
In the first 40 games of the 2022 season, Pederson belted 12 home runs. He carried the Giants’ offense, driving in 29 runs in 34 starts.
Pederson has shown that he can put a team on his back — both last spring and in various postseason runs during his career.
In a National League wild card race that could come down to a game or two, he could easily be the difference.
Pederson came back to the Giants on the $19.6 million qualifying offer. He’s the highest-paid player on the team this year. A beloved personality in the clubhouse, Pederson still has the faith of his teammates.
His production, though, speaks louder than anything.
In the perfect role for him — almost exclusively designated hitting and playing against right-handed pitching — Pederson is eighth on the team in position player WAR (he’s been worth 0.1 more WAR than 2022 Giants DFA-ee Stuart Fairchild).
As the Giants offense has sunk to the bottom, Pederson has homered in once every 41.5 plate appearances. He has 12 on the year, behind Flores, Davis, Wade and Conforto.
With runners in scoring position this season, Pederson has posted a .694 OPS (for reference, that’s exactly Curt Casali’s career OPS). When the Giants have needed him most, Pederson hasn’t delivered.
All that can change. Pederson’s Baseball Savant page has more red than a Levi’s Stadium Sunday tailgate. He’s walking and squaring up pitches at elite rates. He has the big-game experience and returned to SF in part to play meaningful September baseball.
He got his wish there. Time to dust off the pearls.
J.D. Davis
Pre-July 1: 76 games, .282/.362/.456 (.818 OPS), 10 HR, 44 RBI
Post-July 1: 51 games, .193/.262/.313 (.574 OPS), 5 HR, 16 RBI
Davis has never played more baseball in his MLB career. This season is his first real crack at an everyday role, and it seems like the toll of that has set in.
The third baseman performed at a near-All-Star level in the first half, flashing an improved glove while maintaining his elite power.
But the strikeout bug has come for him. His 60 strikeouts to 15 walks since July 1 is almost Schmittsian. Overall, he ranks in the 15th percentile in strikeout rate; whiffing is okay when there’s a real power threat, not when you’re going deep twice per month.
Davis is at his best when he’s spraying line drives to all parts of the field, but to do that, he has to make more consistent contact. Often, it looks like Davis is late on pitches, a possible sign of lower-body fatigue.
At this point of the season, bumps and bruises catch up to players. A tough travel schedule can be grueling. Self doubt can compound with poor performance.
Those types of issues can affect any player. But maybe Davis, under the stresses of the role he always wanted, could be wearing down more than otherwise.
Getting Davis rolling again means fewer at-bats for Schmitt and more off-days for Flores and Wade. It would give the Giants some right-handed pop opponents need to actually worry about.
Mitch Haniger
Pre-July 1: 40 games, .230/.281/.372 (.653 OPS), 4 HR, 22 RBI
Post-July 1: N/A
Haniger hasn’t played enough games since coming back from his fractured forearm to make any conclusions. But his play when healthy in 2023 has been less than inspiring, even when considering the fact that struggling after so much time off is to be expected.
This is the Giants’ biggest offseason acquisition. When they signed him to a three-year, $43.5 million deal, they expected him to hit and hit for power.
Two years ago, Haniger blasted 39 home runs. The questions with him for years have been whether or not he can stay healthy. Now, it’s also fair to wonder if he can recapture that pop.
Haniger is hitting very well against fastballs and has posted a career-high sweet-spot rate, per Baseball Savant (batted balls with launch angles between eight and 32 degrees). He’s not necessarily getting unlucky, but perhaps more of his contact will find grass once he regains his rhythm at the plate.
Given the Giants’ need for a platoon-neutral force in the middle of their lineup — both now and in the future — that can’t come soon enough.
The Giants planned on hitting home runs. They haven’t. But their best chance at finding some in September is with Pederson, Davis and Haniger.
The Giants would take help wherever they can get it, but the onus isn’t on the rookies, who have helped keep the club afloat. It’s not on Brandon Crawford, whom the Giants can’t bank on as a 36-year-old shortstop. It’s not on LaMonte Wade Jr., who has been playing through discomfort and still competing from the leadoff spot. Or Thairo Estrada, who puts the ball in play and causes havoc on the bases even when he’s slumping. Or center fielders Mike Yastrzesmki and Austin Slater, bit players in bit roles befit for them.
Winless so far in September, Giants have real problems. They need to put up more crooked innings. They need to drive home more runners in scoring position. They need to do more damage.
They have veterans who can solve them.