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Alex Cobb’s near no-no, by the numbers

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© Neville E. Guard | 2023 Aug 29

Alex Cobb knows, probably now more than ever, how much needs to fall into place for a pitcher to throw a no-hitter.

Cobb benefitted from a friendly (for him) scoring change. Austin Slater made a spectacular diving catch even he thought he had no chance on. A dribbler that would’ve gone for an easy hit veered inches foul — a moment so comical even Cobb stopped to chuckle by the mound.

Even still, with the baseball gods seemingly lifting him up, Cobb came one out short of dealing his first career no-hitter.

“So many things have to go right for that to happen,” Cobb said.

Against the Reds in Oracle Park on Tuesday night, Cobb struck out eight batters in a magnificent, if not historic, performance. The veteran righty added an unforgettable night to what has been a stellar season.

Here’s what made it so extraordinary.

83

Cobb’s career-high 131 pitches were more than any pitcher this season (Michael Lorenzen’s 124-pitch no-hitter was the previous leader).

Even more notable, though was Cobb’s pitch usage.

He threw 83 of his 131 pitches as splitters. Reds batters took cracks at 46 of them and whiffed 18 times. All of Cobb’s swing-and-misses came on the splitter, and seven of his eight strikeouts were on the pitch.

In the pitch-tracking era that goes back to 2008, nobody has thrown more splitters in a single game than Cobb did. The previous high was Tigers righty Alfredo Simon, who delivered 75 of his 85 pitches as splitters in a 2015 game.

Cobb now owns five the top-10 splitter-heaviest games. Former Giant Kevin Gausman is the other most frequent name on the leaderboard for single-game splitter usage.

It was also the pitch that Spencer Steer drove for a double with two outs in the ninth inning.

“The split’s what got me to that point, so I was going to live and die by it,” Cobb said postgame.

3

The Reds only earned three base runners against Cobb. Arguably even more famously than Steer’s double to end the no-hit bid was a seemingly innocuous infield single in the third inning.

When Nick Senzel beat out a dribbler down the third-base line, everyone in the ballpark thought Cobb’s no-hit bid was over before it even got real. But later, the hit was changed to an error.

Cobb said postgame that he didn’t even realize the scoring change until the seventh inning.

“It allowed me to not think about any type of pressure on pitches to try to keep the no-hitter preserved,” the starter said.

Senzel also reached base with a walk in the ninth inning, and Steer was the only other Red to reach base.

This season, only Gerrit Cole, Joe Ryan and Nathan Eovaldi have gone the distance while allowing three or fewer base runners.

2014

Cobb has never thrown a no-hitter in his 12-year career. But he has come close.

The last time he flirted with a no-no was Sept. 11, 2014 in Yankee Stadium when he was with the Tampa Bay Rays.

That night, Cobb took a no-hitter into the eighth inning. Then Chris Young beat an outside sinker for a double in the right-center gap — almost identical to Steer’s hit on Tuesday night.

On Young’s hit, Cobb said he shook off his catcher, Curt Casali, who called for a changeup. He still hasn’t heard the end of it from Casali, he joked.

Cobb left that game with a 4-0 lead. But Brad Boxberger gave up a two-run homer in relief of Cobb, giving him a no-decision. The Rays ended up losing the game, as Jake McGee gave up a walk-off home run in the ninth inning.

Against the Reds, Cobb left nothing up to chance, and the 6-1 victory was a much better result for him.

3.57

Before Tuesday, Cobb had been struggling. He revealed that he has had difficulties with his mechanics and has felt “lost” after the All-Star break.

In eight second-half starts, Cobb had a 5.48 ERA. He was terrific in the first half, earning his first All-Star selection with a 2.91 ERA and 6-2 record.

Entering Tuesday, Cobb’s season ERA stood at 3.74. With one magnificent start, he lowered it to 3.57. If that holds, it would be his finest season since 2014.

35

At 35 years old, Cobb is pitching as well as he ever has. It took a holistic approach and a commitment to finding any avenue to improve, but Cobb has overcome the injuries that made his career arc look like an inverted bell curve.

After his second complete game of 2023, Cobb showed off the baseballs he’s kept as souvenirs from this season. He has his 1,000th strikeout ball, the one from his first complete game shutout since 2012, his All-Star ball and now the almost no-no.

Could he have imagined having so much success at this stage of his career?

“I have all these balls in here, from accomplishments this year,” Cobb said. “I took a picture of them a couple weeks ago, just like one of those moments where you’re turning 36 in a month and having some of the coolest moments of your entire career this season. There’s been so many moments, ups and downs, throughout my career. Later in my career, when I just didn’t even want to play anymore. It was that difficult, that challenging overcoming injuries. The toll it takes mentally, physically, your family — dealing with that. My wife keeps pushing me to keep playing. It’s special when you have those thoughts and you’re able to keep doing them, keep collecting all those memories that you’re going to have for the rest of your life.”