On Wednesday night, the two Los Angeles teams played a near winner-take-all game to set up what could be the final standings in the Western Conference.
With the Clippers’ 125-118 win over the Lakers (41-39), they leapfrogged the Warriors (both teams 42-38) for the fifth seed and pushed the Lakers into the seventh seed, for the top spot in the play-in tournament.
That sets the stage for the final two games of the season in what is still a very chaotic West.
Because Golden State lost the season series to the Phoenix Suns (44-35, three games left) they can only finish as high as the fifth seed, even if they win their final two and the Suns lose their final three.
And while the Suns play the Clippers on the final day of the season to potentially split the season series, Phoenix is guaranteed to have a better conference record (the tiebreaker in the standings). In other words, the Suns have secured the fourth seed.
The Warriors, who also lost the season series to both Los Angeles teams, can finish as high as the fifth seed and as low as the ninth seed.
That is in large part because they aren’t favored in any of their tiebreakers.
If the Pelicans win out and the Warriors win one of two, New Orleans would be 43-39 and with a better conference record than the Warriors (30-22 vs. 29-23).
If the Timberwolves win out and the Warriors lose out, they’d also jump the Warriors thanks to a better conference record (29-23 vs. 28-24).
First, here’s a look at the standings:
Here is the remaining schedules of the teams they’re competing with.
Clippers: vs. Blazers, at Suns
Warriors: at Kings, at Blazers
Lakers: vs. Suns, vs. Jazz
Pelicans: vs. Knicks, at Timberwolves
Timberwolves: at Spurs, vs. Pelicans
For clarity, the Warriors don’t own tiebreakers over any of the teams chasing them. Their late, 99-96 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves at home on March 26 looms extremely large. Even if they beat the Blazers on the final day but lose to the Kings on Friday, Golden State could fall to the eighth seed.
Here are how the scenarios could play out:
Fifth seed
- Warriors win final two games, Clippers lose one, to either the Trail Blazers or Suns.
- Warriors win one of final two games. Clippers lose final two games. Lakers, Pelicans win one or neither of final two games.
Sixth seed
- Win final two games, Clippers win final two games.
- Win one of final two games, Clippers win one of final two games. Lakers and Pelicans win one of final two games or lose both.
- Win one of final two games, Clippers lose final two games. Lakers win final two games. Pelicans win one or lose both of final games.
- Win one of final two games, Clippers lose final two games. Pelicans win final two games. Lakers win one or lose both of final games.
- Lose final two games. Lakers and Pelicans lose final two games. Timberwolves lose to the Spurs, but beat the Pelicans.
Seventh seed
- Win one of final two games. Clippers win one of final two games. Lakers win final two games, Pelicans win one of final two games.
- Win one of final two games. Clippers win one of final two games. Lakers win one of final two games, Pelicans win final two games.
- Lose final two games. Lakers win one game. Pelicans lose both games. Timberwolves lose to the Spurs, but beat the Pelicans.
- Lose final two games. Lakers lose both games. Pelicans win one game. Timberwolves lose to the Spurs, but beat the Pelicans.
- Lose final two games. Lakers lose both games. Pelicans lose both games. Timberwolves win final two games.
Eighth seed
- Win one of final two games. Clippers win one of final two games. Lakers win final two games, Pelicans win final two games.
- Lose final two games. Lakers and Pelicans win one of final two games. Timberwolves lose one or both of final two games.
- Lose final two games. Lakers win one of final two games, Timberwolves win final two games. Pelicans lose final two games.
Ninth seed
- Lose final two games. Lakers win one of final two games. Pelicans beat Knicks, but lose to Timberwolves. Timberwolves also beat Spurs to win out.
Suffice it to say, unless the Warriors win out, things are not in their control. Perhaps the most likely scenario for them is to lose to the Kings but beat the Blazers.
If that happens, they would be at serious risk of dropping into the play-in tournament if the Pelicans and/or Lakers win out. If both win out and the Warriors win just one game, Golden State will finish eighth.