With no outs in the third inning on Opening Day, Roberto Pérez put down a sign to Logan Webb.
Pérez didn’t want a sinker or slider — Webb’s primary pitches — to strike out DJ LeMahieu in an 0-2 count. He didn’t want Webb, who went on to fan 12 hitters in a franchise record for an Opening Day start, to try a changeup, either.
The catcher told Webb to pick off speedy rookie Anthony Volpe at first base. Webb obliged. But Volpe’s foot was still standing on the first base bag. First baseman LaMonte Wade Jr. wasn’t holding him on and looked surprised to receive Webb’s throwover.
That awkward moment is controlling the run game in 2023. So far, the thieves are way ahead of the detectives.
On Opening Day this year, base runners stole 21 of 23 bags. That represented a stunning increase both in volume and success rate. The 21 steals was the most league-wide for an Opening Day since 1907.
The succeeding games continued the trend, with runners converting 83.3% of stolen base attempts and taking off nearly twice as frequently as they did last year. Pizza box-sized bases, a three-disengagement per batter maximum, and pitch timer, are creating a stolen base frenzy.
Teams, then, have a common problem: how to control the running game. The Giants, and their in-flux catching group, may have to scramble more than others to address it. That is, if it actually makes sense to even try.
“I don’t think, at this point, the goal should be preventing it because it’s just not going to happen,” Yankees ace Gerrit Cole told KNBR.com
The Giants entered spring training with four catchers in a publicly open competition for playing time: Pérez, Blake Sabol, Joey Bart and Austin Wynns. The first three made the team, and each presents strengths and weaknesses when it comes to controlling the running game.
Pérez is a two-time Gold Glover who started three of San Francisco’s first four games of 2023. He’s by far San Francisco’s best option when it comes to throwing runners out.
Pérez led MLB in caught stealing percentage in 2020 (71%) and topped the American League the year prior (41%) with Cleveland.
“Especially as a catcher, I like to throw guys out,” Pérez told KNBR.com. “It’s fun now. I think stealing bases is a game-changer in the game. Now with the pitch clock, and you only have two attempts to throw down to first base, there’s going to be a lot of stolen bases this year. I like it. As a catcher, I think that’s what we do best — as a catcher, that’s the most exciting play for me, throwing guys out.”
But the 34-year-old has dealt with injuries the past two seasons, likely won’t be able to catch every day and may not provide much of a threat as a hitter.
Sabol is the most inexperienced of the bunch. The Rule 5 Draft acquisition caught his first MLB game on Sunday in Yankee Stadium. He received praise from starter Ross Stripling but also endured a tough inning that featured three wild pitches from Sean Hjelle — one of which was his fault, Hjelle and Gabe Kapler said — and a miscommunication on a double-steal attempt.
The double steal play represented both of the two successful steals against Sabol, who was also credited with a caught stealing when Stripling stepped off the rubber and got Anthony Rizzo in a rundown.
Sabol caught at the University of Southern California and in the minors for the past two seasons, but came into Giants camp raw. Kapler said he made strides in spring training and excels at framing. But throwing to bases remains a major question mark for the rookie.
Bart, the former second overall pick, has a strong arm but grades out as average on pop time and framing. To earn a regular role, Bart needed to prove that he could eliminate the swing-and-miss regularity at the plate that led him to rank fifth in strikeout rate in 2022. But improving defensively wouldn’t hurt, either.
Complicating things are Bart’s mid-back strain — suffered while taking batting practice before his scheduled season debut April 2 — and the Giants signing veteran Gary Sánchez.
Sánchez struggled with blocking pitches in New York, but improved as a framer in Minnesota. The two-time All-Star was available for a minor league deal because the power that made him “The Kraken” dissipated over the past three seasons. One of the main reasons San Francisco sought him was for his arm strength.
His deal with San Francisco reportedly includes an opt-out on May 1. At his best, Sánchez is what Bart’s ceiling might look like: 30-bomb power with a lot of strikeouts and a serviceable glove.
Sánchez may be ready for MLB action before Bart. He also grades out better defensively than SF’s homegrown option. Having two catchers with similar profiles would probably be redundant. Tough decisions are looming.
So the Giants have options — albeit flawed ones. Conventional thinking would suggest that this year, with the rule changes, strong catchers should be in the highest demand. Pérez said he thinks he’s a more valuable player under the current rules that incentivize baserunning.
But might attempts at even trying to keep base-stealers at bay be futile? If the early returns continue, perhaps not even Yadier Molina, Buster Posey or Roy Campanella could throw out runners consistently.
“From a defending that perspective, I think it’s probably irrational to think you’re going to be generally better — nobody’s going to be better from a raw statistical standpoint of preventing the running game this year relative to last year,” Yankees ace Gerrit Cole told KNBR.com.
“But that doesn’t mean there aren’t improvements to be made. And I think as we continue to move through the season, we’ll start to see tendencies of different things. Pitchers will get comfortable or catchers will get comfortable strategizing on how to best give themselves an opportunity to limit that.”
Stolen base success rates have hovered around 75% in recent years. But that extremely high safe percentage reflects a reluctance to actually steal. It’s become a math equation, with pop times and delivery tendencies and first-to-second speeds baked into algorithms.
The new rules change the equation.
As outfielder Bryce Johnson learned in the minors, base-stealers can become more and more bold with every pickoff attempt. They can also time their jumps easier by glimpsing at a dwindling pitch timer.
One popular defensive strategy in anticipation of more running that the Giants deployed often in spring training was the backpick — when the catcher receives a pitch and throws to a base to try to catch a runner taking too far of a secondary lead. This is tactic will become more prevalent because it doesn’t count as a pitcher disengagement and can make baserunners more hesitant.
Sabol threw one on Sunday, but it was uncompetitive. The Yankees tried one when LaMonte Wade Jr. was mid-steal against Clarke Schmidt, throwing behind Wade helplessly.
In the series, the Yankees went 5-for-6 on steals compared to the Giants’ 3-for-3 mark. No runner got picked off.
“I think the rules are set up for us to see more stolen base attempts, probably a higher stolen base success rate,” Kapler said. “I don’t think that’s any sort of guarantee, because there’s always the counter punch possibility, that pitchers — it’s really pitchers more than catchers — figure out a way to combat the stolen base attempts. We’re working on it. I’m sure all the teams are working on it as well.”
Kapler noted that controlling the running game is a group effort. It involves the pitcher, catcher, tagger and coaches to gameplan. But the spotlight now, as it has been all spring, is behind the plate.
“I don’t think we’ll ever get to a place where it’s just like, ‘Go ahead, second base is yours,’” Kapler said. “I think we’re still going to be trying to combat that, and that’s going to be the result of the hard work of a lot of people.”