The Carlos Correa news has left the Giants without a superstar in a stage of the offseason in which there are none left in free agency. Pitchers and catchers will report to Scottsdale in roughly two months, giving the club short time to improve the roster.
San Francisco has a clear need to change the mix after an 81-81 season. So far this winter, they have added starters Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling and outfielder Mitch Haniger. They brought back Joc Pederson on the qualifying offer. They’ve lost Carlos Rodón to the Yankees and let multiple relievers go. Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria remain unsigned.
Without Correa, the Giants face many of the same problems they entered the winter with. They need to get younger and more athletic up the middle and on the base paths. They need to improve defensively. They need a presence in the middle of their order and more help in the bullpen.
This is a pivotal offseason for the franchise, and now it has to pivot. The Giants are now Charlie in The Gang Beats Boggs episode of “Always Sunny in Philadelphia,” stumbling and disoriented, bumbling “what do now?”
Here’s a guide to where the Giants stand, and where they might look next.
The current roster
As of Thursday, Dec. 22, the Giants’ roster looks very similar to the one it fielded in 2022. Here is a rough sketch of an Opening Day 26-man group.
Catchers: Joey Bart, Austin Wynns
First base: J.D. Davis, LaMonte Wade Jr.
Second base: Thairo Estrada
Shortstop: Brandon Crawford
Third base: Wilmer Flores, David Villar
Outfield: Mike Yastrzemski, Austin Slater, Mitch Haniger, Luis González
Designated hitter: Joc Pederson
Starting pitchers: Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Ross Stripling, Sean Manaea, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood
Relief pitchers: Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers, Scott Alexander, John Brebbia, Jakob Junis, Sam Long, Yunior Marte
That list doesn’t include Tommy La Stella, who’s owed $11.5 million. It doesn’t reflect the optionality of the bullpen, with arms like Hjelle, Long, Marte, Cole Waites and others likely going in and out. It doesn’t feature top pitching prospect Kyle Harrison, who’s expected to make an impact this season.
That depth chart is imperfect, but it shows a team with an abundance of platoons, an impressively deep rotation, and hardly any can’t-miss position player talent.
Below is a chart with Fangraphs WAR estimates indicating San Francisco is roughly average at every spot.
WAR projections certainly don’t mean everything. Players can overperform and platooning can squeeze more value out of players by putting them in advantageous situations. But the Giants can look to upgrade virtually any position.
Free agents the Giants might target
The Giants have been reportedly linked to Michael Conforto, the outfielder who missed all of last season with a shoulder injury. He was an All-Star in 2017 and put together three consecutive seasons with at least 25 homers from 2017 to 2019.
Conforto, 30, doesn’t grade particularly well with defensive metrics but would make sense as a high-upside bat. Like Correa, Conforto is represented by Scott Boras. And like Correa, he’d have to pass a physical.
Reliever Taylor Rogers is an obvious pairing for the Giants, who could use another left-handed, late-inning reliever. Rogers recorded 31 saves last year but was much more effective in the first half of the season with the Padres before getting traded to Milwaukee. MLB Trade Rumors projects Rogers to earn a three-year, $30 million contract.
The Giants, of course, already employ his twin brother, Tyler. Knowing the cast of characters in the bullpen, shenanigans would ensue.
At 30, Trey Mancini is younger than you’d think. He’s historically been a serviceable fielder and has some positional flexibility the Giants crave. He struggled last year in Houston but before that put together four straight seasons with at least 20 home runs (he missed 2020 with colon cancer).
Mancini has neutral career splits (.790 vs. LHP, .786 vs. RHP), so the Giants could use him as an everyday first baseman, downshifting J.D. Davis into more of a full-time DH platoon role with Joc Pederson.
On the topic of first base, there’s always the chance to bring Brandon Belt back. The Captain has insisted that he’s healthy and has interest in returning.
Possible trade options
Shifting their energy to the trade market is the only way for the Giants’ front office to make a splash in the short term. Whether or not San Francisco has an appetite for putting their best prospects on the table is to be determined.
When Juan Soto became available before the trade deadline last year, the Giants didn’t have enough prospect equity to make a compelling offer. San Francisco’s farm system, headlined by infielder Marco Luciano and starter Kyle Harrison, was ranked 18th in August by MLB.com. That’s as the Farhan Zaidi baseball operations team has had four seasons to rebuild the farm.
Also with their abundance of starting pitching depth, the Giants could try to make more of a lateral move by swapping a starter for a position player. But the return for a player like Alex Wood or Anthony DeSclafani wouldn’t change the world.
Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds has requested a trade, but it’s unclear if Pittsburgh will deal him. The Giants drafted Reynolds before trading him to the Pirates in the Andrew McCutchen deal.
Reynolds made the All-Star team in 2021 and has perennial 20-plus home run power. He’ll be 28 this year and would help the Giants get quicker and younger. But his defensive metrics are confounding, and it’s unclear if he’ll be able to stick in center field — where he’d be most valuable — long-term.
The Pirates are reportedly asking for a top-line pitching prospect in return for Reynolds.
Other outfielders who also might become available for the right trade package include Cedric Mullins, Ramón Laureano and Jake McCarthy.
Mullins, the Orioles’ 28-year-old center fielder, will get expensive in arbitration. But Baltimore has built an exciting team ready to take a leap, and they’d likely want Mullins, an All-Star, to be a part of it.
Laureano, a glove-first outfielder capable of holding down center, likely isn’t part of Oakland’s long-term plans. He’s 28.
In Arizona, McCarthy could be the odd man out of an impressive, promising outfield group of Alek Thomas, Daulton Varsho and Cody Carroll. Ketel Marte also can play outfield and even Stone Garrett impressed in bursta last year. Kyle Lewis and Pavin Smith are also in the mix.
McCarthy, 25, has speed (98th percentile) and hit .283 last year. He hasn’t displayed much power and his Baseball Savant profile is riddled with blue, but he’s still developing and hasn’t hit arbitration yet. He finished fourth in National League Rookie of the Year voting in 2022 and has even splits (.764, .747 OPS).
If Arizona is keen on keeping McCarthy, perhaps one of their other outfielders could be on the move.
On the pitching side, the Giants could look to bolster the bullpen via trade. San Francisco relievers ranked 20th in ERA in 2022.
Liam Hendriks’ name has floated out recently in rumors, and he knows the Bay Area well from his Athletics days. The righty is still an elite high leverage offseason, having made three All-Star teams in the past four years and leading the American League in saves in 2021.
Given how the Giants’ roster is currently constructed, going all-in on the pitching staff might make sense. Adding a player of Hendriks’ caliber, plus perhaps Rogers in free agency, would fortify a bullpen that struggled in 2022 and could make the Giants an elite run prevention team. Shortening games with nasty relievers could hide weaknesses elsewhere.
Then there’s the pipe dreams, the trades that would re-establish confidence in a Giants organization currently bereft of much.
Boston could look to trade Rafael Devers like they flipped Mookie Betts a year before he was set to hit free agency. The star third baseman and the Red Sox are reportedly galaxies apart in contract negotiations and the Sox let Xander Bogaerts — Devers’ mentor and the face of their franchise — walk.
It would take an absolute haul to land Devers, who at 26 is already one of the best hitting infielders in baseball. His 141 wRC+ last year ranked fifth among third basemen.
And of course, there’s the biggest talent — and fantasy — of them all in two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani. The Angels have upgraded this offseason in hopes of reaching the postseason for the first time since 2014. But if things go sideways, might the Angels look to deal Ohtani before he becomes a free agent next winter?
Any team trading for Ohtani would have to do so with confidence that they’d be willing to extend him. Ohtani’s next contract will likely shatter the record for average annual value.
Poaching Ohtani, even in a walk year, would probably take everything the Giants have. But he’s the type of generational player who, if convinced to sign long-term, would be worth it.
The best way to recover from the disastrous events of this week is to contend for the playoffs in 2023. Fielding a competitive team would buy goodwill with an aggrieved fanbase and show the next cycle of free agents that the organization is ready to win.
To do that, the Giants must improve — any way they can.