As expected, Carlos Rodón rejected the Giants’ qualifying offer. The ace will hit free agency as one of the top starting pitchers on the market.
If Rodón signs with another team, the Giants will receive a compensatory draft pick, set for after Competitive Balance Round B — between the second and third rounds.
This year’s qualifying offer is worth $19.65 million. Rodón is in line to make more than that on an annual basis, but for a long-term deal. Models project Rodón to earn a five-year, $100-plus million contract.
Only Joc Pederson and Martín Perez accepted the qualifying offer this year, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
Last winter, the Giants signed Rodón to a two-year, $44 million contract with an opt-out after the first year. The deal allowed Rodón to bet on himself and prove that he could stay healthy for an entire season.
Not only did Rodón avoid the injured list all season, he led MLB in FIP (2.25) and strikeouts per nine innings (12.0). The lefty broke Tim Lincecum’s franchise record for double-digit strikeout games in a season. He isn’t a finalist for the National League Cy Young award, but will surely finish in the top-10 of voting after putting together arguably the most dominant One Hit Wonder season in Giants history.
That short-term contract is the structure president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has preferred for starting pitchers. He let Kevin Gausman walk for a massive contract and has signed Rodón, Alex Wood and Alex Cobb to short deals. The three-year, $36 million pact with Anthony DeSclafani is the biggest Zaidi has engineered with a starter.
Zaidi’s track record with starters makes it unlikely San Francisco will re-sign Rodón. Zaidi has publicly forecasted as much.
“We fully anticipate Carlos to opt out and that will create an opening on our pitching staff,” Zaidi said in his end-of-season press conference.
While Zaidi’s history makes a Rodón reunion unlikely, it points to potential targets like Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander, who could be interested in a similar Giants-esque deal.
A source told John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle that up to 18 teams could be in on Rodón. Rumored destinations include the Rangers, Cubs and Mets.
Even if the Giants don’t replace Rodón with one of the other top arms available, they will need to find a way to support Logan Webb at the top of their rotation.