How are you feeling right now?
Stop wringing your hands over the picks. We’ll get to that. Think about the player. It’s Christian McCaffrey.
Christian McCaffrey.
I know we live in an era when running backs stocks are at an all-time low, and for good reason. They are for the most part, highly replaceable.
McCaffrey — a healthy McCaffrey — transcends those perceptions.
McCaffrey’s value
Running backs are generally replaceable because they’re innately prone to injuries. If you hand the ball to a remotely athletic and/or physical player whose vision isn’t horrendous and the blocking is decent, you’ll have a positive play.
The 49ers have consistently found value in undrafted and late-round backs like Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr. and Elijah Mitchell.
There are so many more levels to running back play, though. That positive play might be a touchdown with a home run hitter like McCaffrey versus a seven-yard run with a replacement-level back. San Francisco, especially with Garoppolo at the helm, has always bet on putting the ball in the hands of their playmakers and letting them go to work.
The receiving ability of McCaffrey is what makes him so much more than a traditional tailback. He can be used in a plethora of roles and alignments. He creates mismatches even if he’s not targeted. He has to be accounted for at all times.
San Francisco has targeted their backs just 24 times this season, which ranks tied for 26th in the league, but with a league-leading 12.26 yards per reception. The yards per target number may decline, but that target number will increase with McCaffrey and better balance the offense.
The 49ers under Kyle Shanahan have never had such a versatile back.
At least, if you’re counting running backs. Deebo Samuel, the “wide back” is certainly in that vein.
Not since Roger Craig has San Francisco had a dual-threat back of this ilk. McCaffrey was the first since Marshall Faulk to have a 1,000-1,000-yard season in 2019, joining Craig as the third ever.
Watching old clips of Craig and knowing what McCaffrey can do is exhilarating stuff.
If you’re not thinking about the 49ers going back to the 80s and running wishbone with Samuel and McCaffrey right now, start. We’re talking three-point stance, long sleeves, defensive backs doing a weird tiptoe thing as a “technique.” The 49ers even have a No. 44 fullback (Kyle Juszczyk now, Tom Rathman then) to lead the way.
This trade gives the 49ers arguably the best running back, left tackle, fullback, tight end, a top-10 WR in Samuel, a surging talent in Brandon Aiyuk, plus a third-down stud and domineering blocker in Jauan Jennings.
Let’s say the 49ers use their traditional 21 personnel. They split out Samuel and Aiyuk with both Juszczyk and McCaffrey in the backfield. Kittle is on the line.
How, exactly, does a defensive coordinator account for everyone? What happens when Juszczyk and McCaffrey split out wide and defenders are put in conflict?
Teams have been adjusting for Deebo Samuel as a ball carrier much better this season. McCaffrey will keep them honest. If they don’t adjust, they’ll get beat, badly.
The thought of what the 49ers could do with pre-snap motion and creativity in their formations is a tantalizing proposition. McCaffrey’s impact in the red zone could be enormous.
Even if they run basic concepts — let’s say a levels concept — they have too much talent to not get favorable matchups on every play. They have enough talent that there should be multiple one-on-ones for players who are all capable of beating those one-on-ones even without excellent scheme.
McCaffrey has 50 career touchdowns in 64 regular season games. He’s averaging 62.2 rush yards and 51.4 receiving yards per game for his career (113.6 yards per game) and 5.8 yards per touch.
He’s more than a traditional running back, and should cost more.
The cost
But the cost…
Now, there’s legitimate cause for concern.
McCaffrey’s injury history is… enough to challenge a strong constitution. In the two prior seasons, McCaffrey missed 23 games.
San Francisco gave up a 2nd, 3rd and 4th in this year’s draft and a 5th next year for him.
The 49ers are left with a pair of compensatory 3rds from Mike McDaniel and Martin Mayhew’s hirings as diversity candidates, a 5th, and pair of 7ths next year.
OverTheCap’s compensatory formula currently projects that they’ll receive 5th, 6th and 7th-round compensatory selections for the departures of D.J. Jones, Arden Key and Raheem Mostert.
The price is substantial, but the 49ers could still have a pair of 3rds, a pair of 5ths, a 6th and three 7ths.
Losing that second, though, will sting. It stings more given how much the 49ers have invested in running backs, and how little value they’ve gotten out of those investments.
They have now spent one 2nd-round pick, three 3rd-round picks, two 4th-round picks, a 5th-round pick and a 6th-round picks on running backs since Shanahan took over in 2017:
2017
- 4th-round pick, Joe Williams. Never played a down.
2021
- 3rd-round pick: Trey Sermon. Cut this offseason. Has 43 career rush attempts.
- 6th-round pick: Elijah Mitchell. Only draft pick who has led the 49ers in rushing. Currently on IR.
2022
- 3rd-round pick: Ty Davis-Price. Has 14 rush attempts. Is currently the 4th-string running back.
2023-beyond
- 2023 2nd-round, 3rd-round pick, 4th-round pick, 2024 5th-round pick: Christian McCaffrey. TBD
That is a hell of a lot of draft capital investment on running backs. Now, clearly Shanahan has been affected by previous injury-riddled campaigns, in which he lost running backs left and right. At one point in 2020, he turned to off-the-street signing Jacques Patrick for one of the worst trick play attempts in recent memory.
Attrition is a very real concern for running backs.
That’s also why the investment in McCaffrey feels odd for this era. It is a lot to spend on one player at a position that is as prone to injury as any in the NFL. It’s the most a team has traded in draft capital on a running back since the Indianapolis Colts gave up a first-round pick for Trent Richardson. That went poorly.
This is the closest we’ve seen to Ricky Williams trade (1st, and two 3rds to New Orleans, with a 4th and Williams going to the Dolphins) as anything we’ve seen in the modern era.
And it’s for player who has a lengthy injury history. The wear and tear on a 26-year-old running back is more than McCaffrey’s age belies. Here’s his injury history, per Draft Sharks:
Injury History
| Date | League | Injury | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2020 | NFL | Pedal Ankle (high) Sprain Grade 3 | McCaffrey suffered a right high-ankle sprain during Week 2’s loss to the Buccaneers and missed six games |
| Nov 8, 2020 | NFL | Shoulder A/C Joint Sprain | McCaffrey injured his shoulder on the last drive of Week 9’s loss to the Chiefs. He missed 4 games |
| Dec 9, 2020 | NFL | Thigh Glute Strain | McCaffrey’s thigh tightened up ahead of Week 14 game. He missed 4 games due to that injury. |
| Sep 23, 2021 | NFL | Thigh Hamstring Strain Grade 2 | McCaffrey suffered a strained hamstring in Week 3’s Panthers win over the Texans. He missed five games. |
| Nov 28, 2021 | NFL | Pedal Ankle Sprain Grade 2 | McCaffrey rolled his left ankle in Week 12’s loss to the Dolphins. He was placed on injured reserve Monday and has been ruled out for the remainder of the season. |
The injury concerns are monumental. As we detailed here, the 49ers are the most injured team of the last decade. There are no indications that will change.
Your worries about spending four draft picks on an injury-prone player at an injury-prone position joining an injury-prone organization are legitimate. That is magnified by the fact that the 49ers have gotten most of their running back value without spending premium picks.
The most Shanahan has spent on their leading rusher over the last five years was Elijah Mitchell, a sixth-round pick (Carlos Hyde was a former second-round pick from the Jim Harbaugh era).
The trade also sets up questions about this offseason and what to do with McCaffrey’s contract.
The contract and offseason questions
McCaffrey is due just $690,000 this season, effectively the minimum.
After this year, he has just $1 million guaranteed for injury. He’s due $11.8 million, $11.8 million and $12 million, respectively. That’s all non-guaranteed money.
There will almost certainly be a restructure. The assets given up suggest this is not a short-term acquisition, and McCaffrey is far too talented to view it that way.
San Francisco is going to work that number down. The question is by how much. He’s too talented to play for pennies, though he’s already locked up $30 million in fully guaranteed dollars on this contract, plus about $14 million from his rookie deal.
To pull off a deal of this size, though, they likely had confidence in working his future figures to a more amenable number.
And they will have to. OverTheCap currently projects the 49ers to have just $15,909,109 in cap space, with some key free agents hitting the market. Here’s what they’re looking at and what they might do:
- Jimmie Ward: Might let him walk with Talanoa Hufanga and Tashaun Gipson playing as well as they are, or strike a favorable one- or two-year deal. He’s due $6.4 million in dead cap if you don’t keep him. That guaranteed figure can be spread around, especially with void years, if you extend him even for one year.
- Mike McGlinchey: Injury background means you’ve got to get really affordable deal. Does something like one-year, $6 million make sense? This is where the lack of a 2nd-round pick hurts the most.
- Daniel Brunskill: TBD. Versatile, depends on the cost.
- Jimmy Garoppolo: Gone (right?… right???)
- Samson Ebukam: Might have to let him walk given his performance. This is where you’d just bet on more snaps for Drake Jackson in 2023.
- Azeez Al-Shaair: Might have to let him walk given that you decided to play Greenlaw, unless he comes in cheap. Team generally finds good undrafted LBs. Got draft capital from one by trading Jonas Griffith to the Broncos at the end of the 2020 training camp.
- Emmanuel Moseley: ACL tear means you might be able to keep him around at an affordable figure, another one of those cheap-ish two-year deals might make sense. Signed for two years, $9.21 million last time. Something like two years, $14 million could make sense. Range is tough to predict with injury.
- Charles Omenihu: Damn good player, they’re going to want to keep him. Tough to know what his market will look like.
Where the lack of picks hurts the most is the McGlinchey situation. Tackle is a position they would have loved to use that second-round pick on. It’s also a brutal reminder of the Javon Kinlaw trade down, eschewing Tristan Wirfs. But the 49ers would have to extend Wirfs at a sizable figure and may not have gotten Brandon Aiyuk without their trade down one slot to draft Kinlaw.
Their first selection is now late in the third round. That’s not to say you can’t find tackle talent that late, but the pedigree and confidence they can play year one goes way down. You might need another gap year from McGlinchey and a more developmental prospect.
The decision to draft Ty Davis-Price with a third-round pick, rather than drafting a safety or tackle looks awfully foolish right now. It was a head-scratching pick then, and seemed pretty early for him, but you thought the 49ers would use him as the No. 2 back at some point this season with Elijah Mitchell, and lessen that burden.
Now, he’s, what, fourth in the pecking order when Mitchell comes back?
F them picks
You can question the investment. You should question the investment, for all the reason previously stated.
But no one will care about those picks and McCaffrey’s contract if the 49ers win the Super Bowl this year. They were already likely to be a playoff team.
With McCaffrey, they won’t be Super Bowl favorites, and probably won’t even be NFC favorites with the Eagles at 6-0, but they should be favorites for the No. 2 seed and a return to the NFC title game.
This is an elite defense and the league’s best at full strength. We don’t know when Arik Armstead will return, if Javon Kinlaw or Azeez Al-Shaair will return, or if Jason Verrett will be healthy enough to replace Emmanuel Moseley.
But even without those pieces, it’s a defense good enough to anchor this team and wreak havoc if mostly healthy in the playoffs.
The offense is too talented, with too many mismatch opportunities to continue to put up less than 21 points per game. Shanahan has no excuses for his offense to fail to produce.
If this doesn’t work out, it’s a massive failure. There’s too much draft capital tied up for the offense not to take a leap with this move.
But for a moment, let’s stop peddling in anxiety.
The 49ers just acquired arguably the best running back in the NFL.
Kyle Shanahan clearly wasn’t going to let Sean McVay and the Rams beat him to the punch for another star player. The 49ers can no longer be criticized for watching the Rams take swings for the fences while they sit on the sidelines.
This is going to be damn fun and an important reminder that the NFL is an entertainment product.
Yes, draft picks, blah blah blah. But aren’t you excited to see Christian McCaffrey on the 49ers’ offense? Isn’t being entertained what this is all about?
This is a Madden fantasy that we all get to watch play out in real life. That’s worth being sincerely excited about, regardless of the cost, which will be well worth it if the 49ers win a Super Bowl.