Over the weekend, Miguel Cabrera joined one of the most esteemed Clubs in baseball when he smacked his 3,000th career hit into right field.
Cabrera is the 33rd player ever to have at least 3,000 hits. Even more impressive, only he, Willie Mays and Hank Aaron have recorded 3,000 base knocks, a .300 batting average and at least 500 home runs.
But ignoring power, hits are becoming harder to come by. No player in 2021 recorded 200 — the previous standard for the premiere contact hitters. In the previous full season, 2019, only Whit Merrifield and Rafael Devers eclipsed 200.
Evan Longoria, ninth among active players in hits with 1,818, marveled at Cabrera’s achievement.
“I’m a long way from 3,000,” Longoria said in the Giants’ clubhouse Tuesday. “It’s an incredible accomplishment.”
Longoria spent most of his career, and collected most of his hits, in the American League. He and Cabrera crossed paths quite frequently, and Longoria, 37, would pick his brain occasionally.
“He’s as talented and as smart a hitter as I’ve ever seen,” Longoria said. “Just talking to him very briefly, through the years, just what he thinks about. The great, great hitters in this game, they see the game differently than everybody else. Little things that he sees, I’m not even close to recognizing stuff like that. Just his ability — even his 3,000th hit — he’s been able to do that his whole career. The shift has not really affected him. He has the ability to manipulate the bat, hit the ball wherever he wants, hit the ball out of the ballpark at will. It’s what’s made him so special for so long.”
Cabrera’s milestone was so impressive, Longoria is convinced we won’t see someone top it for a long, long time.
“I don’t know that we’ll ever see somebody again with 3,000 hits,” the veteran third baseman added. “Even just to imagine a guy coming into the league now. When I first broke in…it felt like 200 hits was like an attainable goal, like if you had a great year. Now 170 seems impossible.”
Currently, Robinson Cano is closest to 3,000 with 2,631. But he’s 39-years-old and would need to play at least three more productive seasons.
After Cano it drops off over 500 hits to Yadier Molina, 39. Younger players on a trajectory to potentially approach 3,000 are Jose Altuve (1783 hits, 12 years), Manny Machado (1446, 11), Mike Trout (1434, 12), and Bryce Harper (1288, 11).
But especially for players starting their careers now, Longoria doesn’t see it. Pitching has gotten too good. Defensive alignment and positioning steal too many base-hits. Hitters are taught to walk more.
“For a player breaking in now, 2,000 might be that new standard,” Longoria said. “In 10 years, we may be looking back like, ‘This kid broke in 12 years ago and he’s got 800 hits, he’s on pace for 2,000. That’s a huge accomplishment.’ I really think that could be the case. Maybe it’s not 2,000, maybe it’s 2,500 or something like that. Even the difference between 2,500 and 3,000 is incredible. It’s wild.”
Giants manager Gabe Kapler (799 career hits) agrees that “hitting is harder than it ever has been.”
It wouldn’t shock Kapler if a player like Machado or Harper eventually joined Cabrera in the 3,000 Hit Club. Forever is a long time.
But it’s still a whole new ballgame now than it once was. In 1998, Kapler’s first year in the big leagues, eight players eclipsed 200 hits.
“Pitchers have never been nastier,” Kapler said. “Velocities have never been higher. Pitch movement profiles have never been more difficult to predict. So it’s a challenging environment. Way more challenging — my last year was 2010. It looks way more challenging now than it did then. So even 12 years.”
For Longoria, who’s currently on the injured list after getting finger surgery a month ago, 2,000 hits is within reach. Of course he’s thought about it.
“I mean obviously, I want to get as many hits as I can,” the 15th-year third baseman said with a laugh.
Accomplishing that will require getting back on the field. He remains optimistic that he’s still on course for the initial four-to-six week timetable. He’s resumed hitting activities and took ground balls and made throws Tuesday on the Oracle Park field.
“It obviously starts with being healthy and on the field,” Longoria said. “So that’s always, every year I come into camp and had a job, my sole focus has just been to play as many games as I can. I’ve never really looked at personal statistics, I just feel like obviously I feel like if I’m on the field I can be productive. That’s goal No. 1.”
Longoria’s 182 away from 2,000. He hasn’t played over 140 games in a season since 2017 or recorded over 100 hits since 2019. Joining the 2,000 Club will require multiple more strong years.
Joining these Clubs isn’t supposed to be easy. But it’s getting tougher.
“If I had to guess, I wouldn’t pick anybody ever — like, a person starting now,” Longoria said. “It’s kind of like a perfect storm type thing, I think, nowadays.”