The 49ers are trying to start a new relationship without ending their old one.
They took a semester abroad, found someone new, and were hoping their soon-to-be-ex would have found someone else by the time they got home. So far, they have not found someone else.
The 49ers are coming home in a couple of months. They really think they like this new relationship. But they’re also thinking, hey, if that old safety net is still there, why close that door? They don’t have to sort this out with until they get back.
They’re at the point of trying to rationalize the situation, telling their friends, “No, it’s cool, they’ll actually get along.”
And for a few more months, this arrangement can work. Jimmy Garoppolo is recovering from shoulder surgery at least until training camp, so the shift to Trey Lance can begin with Garoppolo almost completely uninvolved.
The 49ers just want to be safe and to make sure nothing goes wrong with Lance in that time.
But this could all get very uncomfortable very quickly if and when Garoppolo starts throwing again in 49ers red.
It seems unlikely Kyle Shanahan would keep Garoppolo away from the team like an outcast once he gets healthy. It seems unlikely Garoppolo would be willing to accept a role as the backup. It seems unlikely the 49ers would be willing to pay north of $37 million to keep him, Lance and Nate Sudfeld. It seems unlikely they would waste another year of Lance’s rookie contract value and money that could go immediately towards a Deebo Samuel or Nick Bosa extension, and/or a straggler free agent.
But it seemed unlikely Jimmy Garoppolo would be on the roster at this point. Yet, here he is.
All parties involved wanted this to be dealt with. John Lynch said as much on Monday at the NFL owners’ meetings.
The 49ers are Ethan Hawke in White Fang telling Garoppolo, “Go on! Get out of here!”
But Jimmy won’t go. He’s got nowhere to go.
What is evident is that Garoppolo getting shoulder surgery blew up the whole plan the 49ers had been putting together for more than a year. Kyle Shanahan could not stop mentioning that on Tuesday. It’s safe to say he probably wasn’t enthralled when he found out about the surgery.
“I think the situation is clear,” Shanahan said. “We were trying to make a move to add some draft picks and get them back and I think we were pretty close to it. Then Jimmy ended up getting the surgery and that changes things.”
Lynch said there is a scenario in which Garoppolo could stick around. And while Lynch also said that “I don’t think it ever was awkward last year” between Garoppolo and Lance, the paradigm has shifted.
They drafted Lance and wanted to see where he was at in camp as a rookie with limited college experience at a small school. When Garoppolo appeared the more reliable option, there was a clear path that emerged.
Let him play out one more year, and when the 49ers make the playoffs, his value will climb and they can trade him to acquire some assets after spending a ton of them to get Lance.
Their gambit was that they could compete with Garoppolo and net a decent draft pick return for him. As Shanahan and Lynch have indicated, they probably would have executed on that had he not undergone shoulder surgery.
Even if the surgery was technically a surprise, it wasn’t surprising.
This organization made a bet on a quarterback who they had already publicly bet against. They wanted to move on from him because he is constantly injured, yet counted on him not being injured in order to trade him.
No one wanted him for the same reason the 49ers didn’t.
And what sound-of-mind offensive coach is going to look at Garoppolo, the picture of mediocrity, and say to themselves, “Yes, I can accomplish more with Jimmy Garoppolo than Kyle Shanahan.”
This is a logical, but bizarre result that’s left Garoppolo marooned on the 49ers’ roster. The 49ers are now waiting on either a pre-season injury, or that team down in Carolina to get desperate.
There could be movement at the draft, or in training camp, but teams are getting better at protecting their quarterbacks. Freak, preseason injuries that could open a spot for Garoppolo are far less common.
At some point this offseason, the 49ers will have to move on from Garoppolo. If it comes down to the day before the season, when his $26.95 million salary would become guaranteed, they need to cut him.
Financially, it is possible to keep Garoppolo on the roster. And this isn’t even about the deleterious effect keeping him could have on the locker room and the confusion it could cause. The 49ers barely got away with starting Garoppolo last season before they went on that midseason run.
Retaining Garoppolo for another year would put unnecessary pressure on Lance and be fiscally irresponsible. That money could be used for extensions, remaining free agents, acquiring the salary of a player who comes available via trade, or rolled into next season.
This is about making a firm commitment to the future of your franchise in Lance by allowing him to prove himself on the field, and embracing the obvious fact that Garoppolo has always been not quite good enough.
Kyle Shanahan knows that, and it’s why he traded up for Lance. He gave indications that he intends to move forward with Lance as the starter, and the 49ers’ desire to trade Garoppolo has become no less obvious than it was when the season ended.
But for now, the 49ers have found themselves in a situation where there is no immediate benefit to cutting Garoppolo. At some point, he will be off this roster, but the when is a matter of how far Lynch and Shanahan are willing to take this and whether anyone makes them a legitimate offer.