Sunday’s bout between the 49ers and Falcons is a clear-cut must-win game, perhaps only behind the win over the Rams in that respect, a game which San Francisco entered at 3-5.
There are multiple modelers out there who provide a look at what NFL teams’ chances are to make the playoffs depending on their upcoming games. A win against Atlanta wouldn’t clinch a playoff spot for San Francisco, but it would make a berth exceedingly likely and give the 49ers another tiebreaker against a Wild Card contender.
Here’s a recap from a few models:
The New York Times’ model has the 49ers as about 74 percent likely to make the playoffs heading into this weekend. A loss would drop that number to 44 or 43 percent, and a win would bump it up to 88 percent.
FiveThirtyEight has a much more drastic proposition. They give San Francisco a 75 percent chance to make the playoffs before this weekend. A loss drops that number to 32 percent, and a win, like the Times’ model, increases it to 88 percent.
Lee Sharpe of NFLGameData.com gives the 49ers a 50 percent leverage (the gap between how much winning and losing affects a team’s playoff chances), the most of any team. A win gives them an 86 percent chance to make the playoffs, and a loss drops them to 36 percent likely.
Suffice it to say, the result on Sunday is expected to be defining for the 49ers. A win makes them near locks to make the playoffs, and a loss, regardless of the model, makes them unlikely to make the playoffs.