When the first half of Sunday’s exhausting 49ers loss ended, San Francisco had a 23-21 lead. Unfortunately, there was a pretty clear sense that the best chance to put Russell Wilson away had already been wasted.
Sunday’s was a loss which was, in many ways, similar to the ones sustained over the first six games of the season. It was defined by inefficiency on third down, recklessness leading to an untenable number of penalties, and an issue with turnovers.
The 49ers also lost the possession battle for the first time in four games against Seattle, who came into this game with the lowest average time of possession in the NFL.
They turned the ball over three times — the same as Seattle — but that fails to include Garoppolo’s safety, which is a turnover on downs that is worse than many turnovers that count. If you include that, they lost the turnover differential, and would be 1-5 this season in games they lose in that area.
Their 10 penalties were the most on the season, and 86 penalty yards were the second-most on the season. There were two roughing the passer penalties on one Seattle drive, which ended in a touchdown to end the first half. A false start penalty, when Alex Mack lost his handle on the football, prevented a fourth down attempt. A potential touchdown drive turned into a long field goal after holding and false start calls on the same series.
The most concerning part of Sunday’s performance was that the 49ers, who were 3-of-10 on third downs — after converting 46.6 percent of their third downs over the previous five games — put themselves in disadvantageous situations, especially in the first half.
In six situations they had third and less than seven yards, they were 3-for-6. On the three remaining plays, they converted a QB sneak on fourth down and had one fourth down attempt negated by a penalty. The last third down was the play in which Trent Sherfield was arguably held in the end zone.
They were 0-for-4 on third and more than eight yards.
The other legitimate points of concern were the special teams play and Garoppolo’s recklessness.
Garoppolo can’t throw multiple interceptions, especially without Deebo Samuel in the lineup.
Shanahan said on the first interception, Garoppolo tried to throw it in the first window — it’s a second window throw.” On the second one, Garoppolo was aware of the linebackers and tried to force the ball in high, and overthrew it; he should have checked it down, according to Shanahan.
Even with his mistakes, they nearly tied the game at the end, and if Robbie Gould had not bricked an extra point off the upright, that final drive would have been to win the game.
Shanahan’s assessment of the special teams unit highlighted the extent of their failure.
“Not good enough today, at all,” Shanahan said. “I mean, we gave up a fake punt for whatever it was, 70-plus yards. We had a turnover as the kick returner. Obviously it hurt losing Trenton [Cannon], but Travis [Benjamin] has got to hold onto that ball when he comes in. We also gave up a big kick return at the end of the second quarter and that led to a touchdown, and we missed an extra point. So we have to play a hell of a lot better.”
This is the second-straight poor performance by the special teams unit, which allowed a 99-yard kickoff return touchdown to the Vikings’ Kene Nwangwu last week, and missed what would have been a game-icing field goal from 42 yards.
Special teams coordinator Richard Hightower — whose seat continues to get hotter — said this week that the type of failure sustained last week could not happen again.
“Obviously we had a terrible play in the ball game and we can’t have that happen,” Hightower said. “The sky’s not falling down. We’re not going to push the panic button.”
The 49ers had multiple terrible plays this week, and even if Hightower doesn’t think the sky is falling, he should probably invest in a better umbrella.
Despite those failures, this game was one very long arm away from at least going to overtime.
On the third down on the final drive, the ball was there to Sherfield, but he was pulled back and covered tightly. The next, and final, play was a would-be touchdown if not for a game-winning swat from the 6’7″ Carlos Dunlap, who Trent Williams said has “power forward arms.”
In a game in which you don’t have Samuel or Fred Warner, the takeaway for the 49ers is that if you just limit your mistakes like you did in the three weeks prior, you’re going to get back on track.
Even with the loss, the 49ers still have the seventh Wild Card spot, and hold tiebreakers over the next two teams behind them in Minnesota and Philadelphia. They’ll also get a chance to add one against Atlanta in a couple weeks.
There is the more frustrating element for 49ers fans, which is legitimate and sympathetic.
That is the fact that the 49ers have now lost 16 of the last 20 games against Seattle, and you almost feel like if Seattle had beaten Washington — who now jump the 49ers in the Wild Card standings — in the game prior to this one, the 49ers would have had a better chance to win. Instead, they faced the reality of trying to send the Seahawks towards a fourth-straight and a would-be season-ending loss, which seems like just the type of game they would decide to show up for.
But that’s also why it’s worth cautioning against making more of this loss because of the emotions involved.
There’s an element of pure lunacy that comes with playing Seattle that will not be replicated again this season. George Kittle said he wasn’t sure he’d played in a game like that in his life.
“That was one of the wildest games I’ve ever been a part of. The first half was absolutely crazy,” Kittle said. “I was talking to (Quandre) Diggs about that. I was like, ‘I’ve never been a part of game like this,’ from the fake punt, safety, to turnovers. It was a long first half, and then a hell of a way to end the game, right? Stop them on the one, go 96 yards and then it stops on fourth down. Crazy.”
If Robbie Gould makes an extra point and Dunlap doesn’t swat the final pass of the game, the 49ers win, and the narrative is completely different. But they didn’t, and it’s another loss to Seattle, in Seattle, so the sense of dread deepens.
But if we’re looking just at this season, you have a 49ers team with an extremely efficient offense missing its most valuable player, and one of its most valuable players on defense. Seattle was bailed out by a fake punt, which says much more about the 49ers’ ailing special teams unit than it does the rest of their team.
Garoppolo’s decision-making is worrisome, the special teams unit looks dreadful, and turning the ball over roughly four times is untenable.
But the defense has looked steady. Russell Wilson was sacked four times, and Nick Bosa, who now has 12 sacks in 12 games, hit him three times and ruined a handful of screens. That same defense forced four fumbles.
The greater concern for this team is that they seem to lose their identity without Samuel.
They are now 4-8 in games without him (this includes last year’s loss to Washington, when he was injured on the first play), and have not shown that they are capable of finding consistent ways to win in his stead:
- 49ers’ record since 2019: 27-20 (57.4 percent)
- Record when Deebo plays: 23-12 (65.7 percent)
- Record without Deebo: 4-8 (33.3 percent)
On the bright side, Samuel should return in one-to-two weeks. But when and until he does return, the 49ers cannot return to their early-season habit of consistently turning the ball over and committing penalties. And they absolutely have to sort out their special teams failures.
These issues were present before Seattle, and arose again amidst the chaos. It’s fairly simple for the 49ers; if they limit these mistakes, they will likely win. If they continue, they’ll likely lose. Whether it’s a division rival or anyone else, the 49ers are almost always the arbiter of their own success and failure.
Right now, this is still a team that’s likely to make the playoffs. Beyond that, there’s not much reason to believe this team is a contender to win the conference, let alone compete for a Super Bowl. But it’s a weak conference, and there are decidedly more teams worse than the 49ers than there are ones better than them. It’s not a noble distinction, but it’s fitting for a team sitting at least rung below the NFL’s nobility.