Sunday is set to be the most consequential game of the 49ers’ season. They will welcome the Minnesota Vikings back to Levi’s Stadium for the first time since they ran the ball 47 times for 186 yards in a 27-10 divisional playoff win.
A win would make the 49ers favorites to make the playoffs, while a loss would make their path exponentially more difficult. Per FiveThirtyEight, the 49ers have a 52 percent chance to make the playoffs; a win would bump that number to 69 percent, and a loss would drop it to 27 percent.
That’s due to the fact that the top tiebreaker for Wild Card spots is head-to-head, and the 49ers lose almost every other tiebreaker against the Vikings and other contenders.
Here are the tiebreakers, as we mentioned here:
- Head-to-head, if applicable.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
- Strength of victory.
- Strength of schedule.
With the Saints having lost, a 49ers win would boost them to 6-5 with a permanent tiebreaker over the Vikings, the second-best Wild Card contender. Going 3-3 through the final six games of the season would probably be enough to make the playoffs, while a loss might require them to go 5-1 over the final six games, given that they lose most tiebreakers to other teams if they were to finish 9-8.
Suffice it to say, this is a monumental game, and the 49ers still have a few injury questions, especially at running back.
Here’s their game status report for Sunday:
OUT: RB JaMycal Hasty (ankle)
Doubtful: DT Maurice Hurst (calf)
Questionable: RB Elijah Mitchell (finger, rib)
Kyle Shanahan said Friday that Mitchell has been able to function with his fractured finger, so at this point, it’s a matter of whether he’s comfortable carrying and protecting the ball.
There’s also the potential returns of Dee Ford and Dre Greenlaw looming. Ford had his injured reserve practice window opened on Thursday, and Greenlaw had his window opened last week. Ford was limited in practice on Friday; Shanahan said their statuses won’t be determined until Sunday.
The Vikings, meanwhile, will be without star edge rusher Everson Griffen, who recently posted some disturbing videos with a gun to Instagram and reportedly had police come to his house, at which point he refused to come out.
He was placed on the Reserve/Non-Football Illness list on Friday.
Below is the Vikings’ game status report:
OUT: DE Everson Griffen (not injury related – personal matter)
Questionable: S Camryn Bynum (ankle), G Wyatt Davis (ankle), S Josh Metellus (not injury related)