© Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
We are one week away from the 49ers’ final 53-man roster cuts. San Francisco cut down to 80 players on Tuesday from 85, after starting camp with 90.
Sunday’s final preseason game against the Las Vegas Raiders is largely expected to feature first-team players, meaning opportunities for back-end guys will be sparse. Here’s a prediction at what the final roster may look like:
Quarterback:
In (2): Jimmy Garoppolo, Trey Lance
Out (1): Nate Sudfeld
The 49ers love to take three quarterbacks, but they probably can’t afford that luxury, at least at the start of the season. Sudfeld wants to be in Santa Clara and knows the 49ers want him there, so cutting him would be more about using roster spots on other, more pressing positions, especially for potential injury moves. Because he’s a vested veteran, the 49ers can cut him and re-sign him without having to worry about waivers.
A vested veteran is a player with at least four years of service time. Players with fewer than four years of service time hit waivers, and can be claimed by other teams.
Backfield:
In (5): Kyle Juszczyk, Raheem Mostert, Trey Sermon, Elijah Mitchell, JaMycal Hasty
Out (2): Wayne Gallman, Josh Hokit
PUP (1): Jeff Wilson Jr.
This is a tricky one, but like Sudfeld, Wayne Gallman is a vested veteran, and the 49ers can re-sign him after they put Elijah Mitchell on injured reserve. Hasty, meanwhile, has looked fantastic in the preseason, while Trey Sermon has battled a few knocks, and Hasty has special teams utility. Gallman, though is probably the best blocker the 49ers have, so they’d likely need to feel secure in cutting and re-signing him if they went with Hasty over him.
Tight end:
In (4): George Kittle, Ross Dwelley, Charlie Woerner, MyCole Pruitt
Out (1): Jordan Matthews
Kyle Shanahan pointed out during training camp how he regretted having to cut former Stanford sixth-round pick Kaden Smith, who the Giants picked up. He’s since been productive there. This could very well be a three-man tight end group, but Pruitt was brought in as a reliable second run blocker. Ross Dwelley definitely isn’t that, and Woerner has made strides, too, but is much better in space than as an in-line blocker. Pruitt did have a couple of holding penalties in the second preseason game, though, which is a bit of a concern when you’re being kept as a blocker.
Wide receiver:
In (6): Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Mohamed Sanu, Trent Sherfield, Jauan Jennings, Jalen Hurd
Out (3): Richie James Jr., Travis Benjamin, Nsimba Webster
Injured Reserve (1): Austin Watkins Jr.
Trying to figure out who the sixth receiver on this team is going to be is, well, a total crapshoot. The first five guys on this list should absolutely make the team. Jalen Hurd, meanwhile, has had one good day of practice. But, that one good day is better than the net of the last three guys out, which is to say, none of Richie James Jr., Travis Benjamin or Nsimba Webster have impressed consistently. They’ve all had problems with drops, all had flashes of exciting plays, and all have return ability.
Here’s the hypothesis: Why not bring Hurd on the 53-man roster, put him on injured reserve and see if he can get healthy at some point given his upside, and then re-sign one of those three guys as your returner? The main concern with that plan is that both Richie James Jr. and Nsimba Webster would go to waivers, and could then be claimed by any team. Then, you’d either have to keep Benjamin, or find a completely new returner in free agency. That might be worth the gamble given the gross lack of consistency from those last three names out.
Offensive line:
In (8): Trent Williams, Laken Tomlinson, Alex Mack, Daniel Brunskill, Mike McGlinchey, Aaron Banks, Jaylon Moore, Colton McKivitz
Out (5): Tom Compton, Shon Coleman, Dakoda Shepley, Jake Brendel, Senio Kelemente, Alfredo Gutierrez
The first six names on that list are givens. Really, it’s a question of whether you keep Jaylon Moore over Shon Coleman and Colton McKivitz over Tom Compton, or whether it’s worth keeping nine offensive linemen. Given that you have two extra gameday spots from the practice squad and can keep one additional offensive lineman active on gamedays, eight is probably enough.
Coleman has been struggling with a knee injury, and is the only real competitor for another tackle spot with Moore, who has had a lot of rookie moments. In that situation, you’d think the 49ers would opt for the healthier, younger player. Tom Compton has also worked at right tackle, but that’s not a confidence-inspiring sight. Maybe the coaching staff feels more comfortable with him over McKivitz shifting around the offensive line, but again, youth might be an advantage here, and Compton isn’t subject to waivers like McKivitz is.
Defensive line:
In (10): Nick Bosa, Javon Kinlaw, D.J. Jones, Arik Armstead, Dee Ford, Samson Ebukam, Maurice Hurst, Kentavius Street, Kevin Givens, Arden Key
Out (4): Zach Kerr, Darrion Daniels, Eddie Yarbrough, Alex Barrett
Suspended (1): Jordan Willis
Is it worth keeping 11 players here? It might be, with Arden Key being the last one worth keeping. You at least have to keep 10. The debate is how to handle Maurice Hurst’s injury. He’s been terrific, and the 49ers will want to keep him around, but to do so, they need to use up a roster spot on him to get him to injured reserve for the start of the season.
With him out, you’d need to keep Kevin Givens and Zach Kerr, both of whom deserve to make the roster. And without Arden Key, you’re going with a group of Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Samson Ebukam and Arik Armstead in Week 1. Bosa is coming off a torn ACL, Ford off a season-ending back injury, Ebukam having dealt with some injuries in camp, and Armstead more effective as a three-technique (aligns on the outside shoulder of an offensive guard in the B-gap between the guard and tackle). The depth that Key would provide is significant, at least until Jordan Willis’ suspension ends by Week 7.
That’s all to say that one scenario would be cutting Kerr, age 30, the only vested, cuttable veteran of that group. He does, however, have an $87,500 roster bonus, so the 49ers would probably need to work that out with him if they’re to work out a swift cut-and-re-sign situation.
This is probably overthinking the situation, because Kerr should absolutely be on the roster, but the 49ers have such a wealth of riches on the interior, that someone is probably going to be looking at the short end of the stick. Given that Kerr isn’t subject to waivers, and there’s likely going to be an immediate spot on the roster if Hurst goes to injured reserve, this could be a clever way to keep everyone around, if Kerr is amenable to it. The other option is to work out a trade, perhaps with Givens going elsewhere.
Linebackers:
In (5): Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, Azeez Al-Shaair, Jonas Griffith, Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
Out (3): Marcell Harris, Elijah Sullivan, Justin Hilliard
Injured Reserve (1): Mychal Kendricks
The first three names on this list are roster locks, and Jonas Griffith might be, too. The 49ers have loved what they’ve seen from him and he’s repped as Fred Warner’s direct middle linebacker backup. That’s not an accident. Marcell Harris has had his moments in camp, but has cooled off from an early, hot start, while Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles — another safety-turned-linebacker — is coming off an impressive preseason game. They probably can’t afford to keep both players, and it may be a matter of who the team feels more comfortable making it to practice squad, along with the two six-year college linebackers in Elijah Sullivan and Justin Hililard.
Corners:
In (6): K’Waun Williams, Jason Verrett, Emmanuel Moseley, Ambry Thomas, Deommodore Lenoir, Dontae Johnson
Out (2): Davontae Harris, Alexander Myres
The first five names on here are pretty much locked in, but Moseley is nursing a hamstring injury and if the 49ers keep five corners, they’re relying on two rookies to immediately step in. That’s not an outrageous scenario, but Johnson gives them another body who’s been with the team for about seven-plus years now and who is coming off a surprisingly reliable season in which he played both in the slot and outside. They could always keep him on the practice squad, too, but Johnson might deserve a roster spot.
Safeties:
In (4): Jimmie Ward, Talanoa Hufanga, Tavon Wilson, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
Out (2): Jared Mayden, Kai Nacua
PUP/IR (1): Jaquiski Tartt, Tarvarius Moore, Tony Jefferson
It’s incredible how the 49ers seemingly had this wealth of riches with safeties, and how quickly it fell apart. Marcell Harris (rightfully) converted to linebacker, Tarvarius Moore tore his Achilles, Jaquiski Tartt is dealing with a bad turf toe injury and Tony Jefferson was placed on injured reserve with a groin and hamstring injury.
Both Jared Mayden and Kai Nacua are intriguing prospects, but are probably destined for the practice squad. Meanwhile, Talanoa Hufanga has been impressive (there were, no doubt, some concerning coverage moments in joint practices, but which DeMeco Ryans chalked up to bad communication), as has Tavon Wilson, who’s had a few knocks as of late. Regardless of the lack of tape on Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, they’ll likely need a fourth body, and him being healthy, plus his former Pro Bowl pedigree is likely enough reason to keep him around.
Special teams (3): Taybor Pepper, Mitch Wishnowsky, Robbie Gould
Yup.