Photo Credit: Chris Mezzavilla
It’s finally here, folks. The 49ers are playing football against another team. Saturday will provide the first extended look at Trey Lance against another NFL team, and whether that’s the Kansas City Chiefs’ first or second team, it will be informative. Here are five things to look for.
Trey Lance
Well, yeah. Duh. Lance is the reason this is the most consequential preseason the 49ers have had in recent memory, if not… ever? But there are a few specific things to look for in his first (mostly) real game action.
Zone read exchanges, watching the mesh point
There have been a plethora of fumbles on bad exchanges with Lance and his running backs in camp thus far. They’re almost all coming at the mesh point, when Lance is deciding whether to pull it himself or let the back run the ball.
Running backs coach Bobby Turner told KNBR it’s a product of time; the more accustomed Lance and his backs get to one another, and the tempo of zone read plays, the less likely exchange issues will be. Turner said he hopes to have those issues ironed out by the regular season, but it will be interesting to see if those practice errors show up in the game.
This isn’t a huge cause for concern yet, but if Lance and his backs don’t look comfortable together and continue fumbling on the read packages which Shanahan has all but said he’s going to employ (whether Lance is the starter or not), that’s a bit of a worry. Just keep an eye out for those exchanges and the snap-to-handoff fluidity even on standard run plays. These guys are all still feeling each other out, and all you really want to see is progress over these three games.
Reading middle-field coverage
Lance has only thrown one interception thus far that I can recall that was his fault in 11-on-11s. He’s had other throws which should have been picked off, and at least one other interception that came off Elijah Mitchell’s hands. His lone bad interception was when he missed middle linebacker Jonas Griffith dropping back in coverage a la Fred Warner and Griffith undercut the throw. He’s also forced a few balls over the middle which had the potential to be picked off, but the pace on the balls allowed him to get away with it.
At some point, he’ll get punished for those plays, but what’s important is the process; how is he reading those coverages and understanding what he can and can’t get away with? Every indication, though, is that when he does get punished, he’s going to keep challenging defenses, which is exactly what you’d hope for and want to see continue in a game setting.
How he protects himself
Shanahan said this week that the 49ers don’t practice sliding or diving in practice, and obviously there’s a firm “do not touch” order for defenders as it pertains to the quarterbacks. So Saturday will be the first chance to see how Lance protects himself; he’s going to run the ball, and he’s going to get hit. Will he get out of bounds, will he slide? A mobile quarterback is a massive advantage, but one who can’t protect himself is a liability.
At North Dakota State, that was one of the major concerns and reasons some people (including myself) wondered if Shanahan would draft Lance. He had a propensity to fight for extra yardage and lower his shoulders like a running back towards defenders. Now, Lance is as athletic and strong as any quarterback in the league, but trying to fight for those yards works a little differently in the Missouri Valley Conference than it does in the NFL.
Here’s what Shanahan said he’s looking for in that respect:
“Every time that you evaluate a run and where you get to, you always talk about, alright, ‘How would you protect yourself here? How are you going down? Are you going for more? Are you sliding? Are you going to head first, are you stepping out of bounds?” Shanahan said. “That’s something that we’re all going to see in the game. Trey says the right things. He’s a pretty good runner, he’s pretty competitive. So I hope he takes my word for it. Sometimes those guys don’t believe how hard people hit and then they get it a couple times in the NFL, and then they’re like, “Ok, now I know what you’re talking about.”
Footwork and movement under pressure
With that “hands off” order for defenders, there’s been no contact to deal with. That’s not to say Lance hasn’t had to deal with pressure; the second-team offensive line has been getting whooped day in and day out by the second team defensive line, with the likes of Maurice Hurst, Zach Kerr, Kentavius Street and even Eddie Yarbrough running riot.
The difference is when that pressure comes on Saturday, those rushers are under no obligation to hold back. How will Lance navigate that?
I suspect it will be mostly impressive; he showed a real sense of feeling pressure and knowing when to get out of the pocket in college, and he’s flashed that plenty of times in training camp already. He has a knack for escaping that rush and buying time towards the sideline while looking for a throw, he just has to show it in a game setting.
How damn exciting he is
Seriously. This kid is special. That last part about the way he escapes pressure and buys time is legitimately like Aaron Rodgers. That’s not to anoint Lance as the next Rodgers, but that’s also not an unreasonable target given his skillset and intelligence if he stays healthy. He has the ability to get himself additional time and find receivers breaking away from coverage late in a way that no other 49ers quarterback can.
He’s also obviously the only 49ers quarterback who can reliably throw dimes 40-plus yards down the field and on a line. He challenges the deep third of the field in a way that this offense has been crying out for.
Oh, he can run. The defense started to catch on to some of the zone read plays the 49ers’ offense ran, but they were also prepared for them. I’d feel confident putting money on him gashing the Chiefs’ defense for at least 15 yards with his legs, and by design, on Saturday. This is going to be fun.
How do rookie backs respond to contact
One of the great challenges in evaluating running backs — as Kyle Shanahan and pretty much any football coach will tell you — is projecting how those players will respond to contact. The 49ers try to simulate some of that in practice, with their running backs getting as close to real contact as any offensive player, but you’re not positive how it will look until it’s another team going full speed.
Now, there’s a lot of reason to feel optimistic about both Trey Sermon and Elijah Mitchell. There’s a more in-depth look at them here, from Friday’s mailbag, but here’s what running backs coach Bobby Turner told KNBR about both:
“On Sermon: “He has the size, but more so than you know than the size is the mindset, that, ‘Hey, I can do this, I want to do that.’… He definitely wants the football. He has no fear.”
On Mitchell: “Yeah, he’s what he thought he was. He’s a big play guy. Big play guy. He has the speed, the overall foot quickness and the mindset. He wants to be good, he wants to be coached. And that’s with both players. They want to be great.
“Oh, and the other thing is, he’s a stand up guy. ‘Hey coach, I should have done this better,’ he’s all ears. He’s all ears and eyes and all he’s going to be doing is getting better, but he has the athletic skills. Now he just needs some playing time.”
Interior defensive line glut
The 49ers have something of a good problem along the interior of the defensive line, in that they might have one too many players. There are six players who are locks to make the roster on the defensive line in Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Arik Armstead, Samson Ebukam, D.J. Jones and Javon Kinlaw. At least one of Zach Kerr and Maurice Hurst — and probably both — will make the team, but you’ve also got Kentavius Street and Kevin Givens, who both absolutely deserve to make the roster.
The problem there is that’s 10 defensive linemen with only four real edge options including Armstead, one of whom is Dee Ford and other of whom is Nick Bosa, recovering from an ACL surgery. In fact, all four of those edge options have missed some sort of time or have been limited in camp thus far. Street is in sort of the Armstead backup as a three- and five-technique guy, but he’s much better working from the interior.
Jordan Willis is suspended for the first six games of the season, so the real question is whether Arden Key, who didn’t practice on Thursday with a thigh contusion, can do enough to make the roster. If those interior guys all continue to dominate, the 49ers could just stock up on the interior; Saturday is a prime opportunity for all of those guys to continue to prove that’s a viable plan.
Can tight ends stand out?
The 49ers prefer four tight ends, and have two roster locks in George Kittle and the blocking-challenged, but receiving-gifted Ross Dwelley. Then there’s three real options in Charlie Woerner, Jordan Matthews and MyCole Pruitt. Pruitt is still working back from a calf injury and won’t play on Saturday, leaving a prime opportunity for Woerner and Matthews.
Woerner will probably make the roster, but had an extremely rough season last year. He was known as a blocker in college, but was one of the NFL’s worst last season (you can refer to PFF if you want, but the eye test was enough). He’s looked more comfortable — especially in blocking on outside zone runs — after a full camp, but really needs to reprove himself in game situations.
For Matthews, it’s even more pressing. He hasn’t really showed that he’s capable of blocking how a tight end needs to, and got bowled over and put on his back the other day in practice. He’s also had a concerning number of drops.
If you’re not a reliable pass catcher, and you can’t block, why would a team keep you around? He’s flashed the potential of a former receiver moving to tight end with a few nice grabs, and some occasional blocks, but absolutely has to show growth. Pruitt was brought in as the much-needed run blocking tight end, and Matthews needs to ball out in these preseason games if he’s to beat out him or Woerner.
Rookie corners and battle for depth
There’s Emmanuel Moseley, Jason Verrett and K’Waun Williams. Ambry Thomas is a lock to make the roster, but no one else in the corner group can feel even remotely confident about their chances. It’s easily been Ken Webster and B.W. Webb (who’s Williams’ nickel backup) who have stood out.
Deommodore Lenoir, meanwhile, has looked inconsistent. There have been impressive pass breakups at times, but he’s looked out of position and gotten beat far too often. This is a team built to compete right now (with either quarterback) and which just drafted eight rookies. It’s more likely than not that not all of them make the 53-man roster, and Lenoir is going to have to show up in these preseason games to avoid being on the outside looking in.
Thomas will also get a long run on Saturday, so you’d like to see how he handles the Chiefs’ receivers, who are seemingly all guys who run sub-4.4-second 40, or who are extremely long and crafty at finding space.
There might only be six corner spots available (possibly seven), and really two viable competitive spots, so all these guys — Webster, Webb, Lenoir, Dontae Johnson — are going to have to show some sort of consistency starting tonight.