© Tim Heitman | 2020 Jan 11
The tea leaves were there. John Lynch’s open admission that the 49ers needed to upgrade at backup quarterback provided limited options. The team’s discernible interest in Matthew Stafford before being undercut by the Rams, and Jimmy Garoppolo’s total lack of availability over the last three years, made it abundantly clear that San Francisco would have to do something at the quarterback position not nameed C.J. Beathard or Nick Mullens.
While Friday’s move, trading three first-round picks and next year’s third-round pick to the Miami Dolphins for the No. 3 overall, is an absolutely massive haul, it makes total sense. The 49ers did not bite on the free agent quarterbacks who were available. Their only options remaining were via trade (Sam Darnold or Gardner Minshew the two most likely options), or the draft.
Clearly, they were not in a comfortable position at No. 12 to pick one of the top four quarterbacks, maybe even the top five. That left the next group, the Davis Mills, Kellen Monds, and Kyle Trasks of the world, to come in as very flawed prospects and compete for the No. 2 job.
That’s not a path that interested San Francisco.
They will not be in this position again, and rightfully chose to take advantage of it, while actually maintaining every pick they had in the draft. This reveals they want to upgrade the quarterback position while lowering their cost, knowing that players like Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw and Deebo Samuel are all going to have to be paid at some point.
Getting a quarterback on a rookie deal makes that equation a whole lot easier. The only question was whether this front office had the stomach for that sort of move. Clearly, they do.
Now, we ask, who is the guy? And what do you do with Garoppolo?
I’ll start with the latter question. Before you start yelling (okay, you’re already yelling) to trade Garoppolo, which is absolutely in play, let’s look at the situation.
If you trade Garoppolo now, it’s because his trade value is astonishingly good (say, a first-rounder or a second and other picks), and you feel both confident in both your rookie quarterback and your ability to snag a decent backup like Minshew. Or you’re trying to clear cap space. The only explanation for clearing cap space is to pursue someone like Melvin Ingram, Jadeveon Clowney or A.J. Bouye, a near top-of-the-market player you can’t really afford at the moment.
Either that, or you find a backup option you like nearly as much as you like Garoppolo for a much cheaper price.
But the 49ers have already addressed the vast majority of their needs, and the free agency market has dried up pretty quickly. You’re probably not trading Garoppolo, who has become your insurance policy for a rookie quarterback (who will have an abbreviated offseason and limited preseason games to learn the offense), solely to get an extra edge rusher, corner or receiver in the realm of Danny Amendola.
There is enough draft capital remaining to stock up on those positions, and enough remaining cap room to add depth there, too.
One complication is that Garoppolo may not be the ideal mentor for a rookie quarterback. There’s little chance he’ll be stoked to be what is essentially a lame duck QB, and you’d be hard-pressed to prove that he’s one of the great QB minds out there. So if it’s about imparting knowledge, Jimmy’s value is minimal.
On the flip side, you can look at what Aaron Rodgers did last season after the Packers drafted Jordan Love. Shanahan and Matt Lafleur are close; maybe he gleaned that he could replicate that motivation-by-fury with Garoppolo.
But regardless of what’s done with Garoppolo, this team is drafting a quarterback, and it will be one of three guys: Justin Fields, Trey Lance, or Mac Jones.
I’m not quite sure what to make of the Mac Jones hype and the intimation that he’s the 49ers’ guy. Trading up to No. 3 for him would high risk and a cataclysmic failure if things don’t go well. It would be used as a damning indictment of Shanahan, showing that he has not evolved in his preferred archetype of quarterback. Jones is Kirk Cousins 2.0. High floor, low ceiling, reliable, pretty boring quarterback who is unlikely to carry a franchise without tons of help.
That’s not to say that Jones isn’t talented, but the value is no longer there at No. 3. Jones as a late first-round pick makes sense, but swinging on him above the likes of Justin Fields and Trey Lance is questionable, especially at the cost of two first-round picks and a third-rounder. You absolutely have to take a leap and move for a guy with athletic upside.
Drafting Jones would show that the 49ers haven’t learned from the success of Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers (yes, he’s athletic), Justin Herbert, even Kyler Murray. He’s not a player to catapult you. But Fields, and even Lance, can be.
Both have similar athletic tools; massive arms, with the ability to feather the ball in with touch, and plus-plus athletic ability. Fields, though, has faced exponentially more difficult competition and succeeded in back-to-back seasons on a national scale. Lance has been limited in his opportunities at North Dakota State and rarely threw the ball more than 20 times a game. He’s not as elusive laterally as Fields, and looked poor in his one showoff game this year.
The reason you’d take Lance over Fields is that Lance is a bit more decisive. He played in an offense closer to what the 49ers run and delivers the ball quick. Fields, though, had issues with being too deliberate and delivering the ball either late, or overthinking his progressions and not making the right read. But Fields is the surer prospect, and is likely suffering from a case of over-evaluation from having too much tape.
If his season ended with the win over Clemson as opposed to the national title loss to Alabama (a loss which was not on his shoulders), how many people would still be talking him at No. 2, where he was mocked for most of the last two seasons?
We don’t know whether the 49ers really intend to keep Garoppolo this season, but there’s reason to believe, unless they find spectacular trade value or a stellar backup, that they will keep him. Beyond that point, he’s gone, and it’s one of Fields, Lance or Jones.
As long as San Francisco makes a bet on one of those first two names, it will be a bet worth making. If they bet on Jones, they risk, and probably deserve, being sent back to the stone age.