© Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
All season, it was a looming question. The NFL set the floor for the 2021 salary cap at $175 million, a warning sign of what might come. It represented a potentially monumental drop from the $198.2 million cap from the 2020 season. It will be the first time since 2011 that the league’s cap has dropped.
According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the number has come into focus, and is expected to be set around $180-181 million. OverTheCap’s projections have been adjusted to a $180.5 million number, which currently projects the 49ers at $12.11 million of cap space.
Though the NFL’s salary cap is not expected to be officially set until next month, league sources believe it will be roughly $180-$181 million. Throughout the past season, many expected it to be around $175 million, but it now is projected to come in slightly higher, per sources.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 7, 2021
So, how on earth do you re-sign Trent Williams, Kyle Juszcyk, Richard Sherman, Jaquiski Tartt, K’Waun Williams, Jason Verrett and extend Fred Warner? Obviously, you don’t. The priority here is first to retain Williams. Everything else is (no pun intended) secondary.
While Williams will be a $20 million per year player, the 49ers are going to have to structure the deal to limit the cap burden in year one. Something in the range of a $14-16 million 2021 salary seems about right, with most of Williams’ contract guaranteed, and likely a very steep figure coming in year three.
I’ve explained what I would do as the 49ers general manager in the latest mailbag, here.
Here’s my plan:
- Re-sign Trent Williams for four years, $84 million. Guarantee him half of that. Give the man what he wants, but get him for something like $15 million in year one.
- Re-sign Kyle Juszczyk for three years, $16-18 million. The question, of course, is whether someone else will offer more
- Re-sign Jason Verrett for two years, $14 million. Has a $5 million, fully guaranteed cap hit in 2021, $9 million partially guaranteed in 2022
- Re-sign Emmanuel Moseley for one year on the second round restricted free agent tender at roughly $3 million
- Re-sign Ronald Blair III for one year on the same deal as this season, unless the Jets outbid you. The 49ers have an edge here in that due to a veteran salary exception, they can offer Blair more without it hitting the cap. So, I’m predicting basically the same deal as this year, where Blair makes roughly $2.1 million, with a roughly $1.05 million cap hit.
- Minimum guys to re-sign to one-year deals: Ben Garland, Jordan Willis, Dion Jordan, Dontae Johnson, Taybor Pepper, Daniel Brunskill, Marcell Harris
Extend Fred Warner for five years, bumping his 2021 pay, but paying him heavily in guaranteed money in year three. Let’s say, six years (including 2021), $110 million. $25 million fully guaranteed, $55 million effectively fully guaranteed, and something like $80 million protected for injury. In the final three years, his roster bonus and contract guarantees all have trigger dates.
Here’s what this could look like, using OverTheCap’s extension tool (apologies for the small font):
When John Lynch was asked about his cap expectations at the end of the season, he said the team was proceeding as if it would hit the $175 million floor. He’ll have at least $5 million more to work with, which isn’t much. Using that cap figure, the 49ers would have less than $13 million to work with.
Dee Ford is the greatest question mark here in that the 49ers may not be able to cut him.
To recap:
- Cut Weston Richburg, preferably after June 1: Net cap: Saves roughly $3.8 million (pre-June 1) or $7.3 million (post-June 1), depends on top-51 salaries
- Cut Mark Nzeocha: Net cap: Saves roughly $870,000, depends on top-51 salaries
- Cut Dee Ford if possible. Dee Ford has $11.6 million of his salary guarantee on April 1, so a cut would have to be before then. Part of his 2021 salary is guaranteed for injury, so depending on Ford’s injury guarantees, it might not actually save money off this year’s cap to cut him this season. It would, however, get him off the books in 2022. The issue is that the cap won’t ever be lower than it is in 2021. The 49ers can save roughly $5 million by cutting him if injury guarantee doesn’t come into play. If it’s a net zero, or close to it, it would be worth it to cut him this season. Would save $21 million in 2022 versus saving roughly $12 million if he stays on the roster and is cut next year.
- Extend Laken Tomlinson with a roughly $3 million 2021 cap hit. Net cap: Saves up to 3.5 million
- Restructure Arik Armstead’s contract: Net cap: Saves up to $5.13 million
- Restructure Jimmie Ward’s contract: Net cap: Saves up to $5.15 million
- Extend Fred Warner with a roughly $6.4 million 2021 cap hit. Net cap: Costs $2.8 million
- Re-sign Trent Williams with a roughly $15 million 2021 cap hit. Net cap: Costs $15 million
- Re-sign Jason Verrett for two years, $14 million. Gets a $5 million, fully guaranteed cap hit in 2021, $9 million partially guaranteed in 2022. Net cap: Costs $5 million
- Re-sign Emmanuel Moseley using the second round restricted free agent tender at roughly $3 million. Net Cap: Costs $3.4 million
- Re-sign multiple minimum (or roughly minimum) players: Ben Garland, Daniel Brunskill, Dion Jordan, Jordan Willis, Marcell Harris, Ross Dwelley, etc. Net cap: Depends on the final top-51, but each veteran deal, at the moment has a roughly $330,000 cost.
- If priced out of Kyle Juszczyk (seems like the Jets would be the team to do that, on a roughly three-year, $18 million deal), draft an athletic H-back type like Notre Dame’s Tommy Tremble.
Using the estimates above, re-signing Williams, Verrett, Moseley, six minimum free agents and extending Warner will leave the 49ers with roughly $7-8 million. Keep in mind that the 49ers need to budget a little less than $2.5 million for the draft, assuming they keep their picks, and more if they trade up. So, assuming all that, it’s $4.5 million of cap space remaining. That’s without cutting Ford, which would be a massive boon if viable.
At this point, it’s exceedingly difficult to tell how free agency will play out. There could be a mass exodus of mid-level contract players like Kwon Alexander; guys, who, in normal years, would probably feel secure on their roster, but will be cut with teams in a cap crunch.
It could also mean the market for free agents stays open later than usual, with teams using post-June 1 cuts to create additional cap space (say a player has $15 million remaining in guaranteed money over three years; instead of cutting them for a $15 million dead cap, you cut them for $5 million and take the $10 million remaining the following year).
This team clearly needs to add depth on both lines and figure out how to replenish its secondary. Much of that will come from the draft, but they’ll have to get sneaky with some free agent signings, too.
One major wrinkle is Garoppolo, who will be heading into the final year of his deal with just $1.4 million guaranteed in 2022. The 49ers definitely don’t want that number to spike, but they could easily use his contract to open up as much cap space as they want. If they moved, say, $3 million, they could still cut him or trade him with massive cap savings, it would just cost $4.4 million in dead cap in 2022.
With Garoppolo, the approach should be to leave the money alone if possible, but restructure as needed. That $4.5 million outlined above could stay that, or just as easily become $8 million or much more. The 49ers can open up to $11.8 million if they restructure Garoppolo’s contract. That would likely allow them to re-sign two out of the three of Juszcyzk, Tartt and K’Waun Williams, and leave some breathing room for in-season transactions.
The question, as always, is if they’ll be willing to touch Garoppolo’s contract. Thus far, in conspicuous fashion, they have not. In a normal year they’d certainly leave it alone, but they may have to use his deal to create some wiggle room in 2021.