© Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Quarterback, quarterback, quarterback. We know, it’s a lot. Blame the 49ers for betting their future on getting Kirk Cousins back in 2017 instead of on Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes, not us. Jimmy Garoppolo did nothing last year to suggest that he is definitely the guy, and until he proves that, the speculation will reign on.
With Matthew Stafford, the likeliest option to upgrade from Garoppolo, in Los Angeles, the choices have become much more limited. Watson may not be traded at all, and the 49ers can be outbid if he is available. Trevor Lawrence is heading to Jacksonville. Zach Wilson’s probably going in the top five. Justin Fields may do the same. The wild card here is North Dakota State’s Trey Lance.
In NFL Network’s Lance Zierlein’s first mock draft, he sees the 49ers taking Lance at 12.
“Lance could go higher with a run on quarterbacks. If he’s available at 12th overall, he might be too enticing to pass up. His background and skill set fit perfectly within Kyle Shanahan’s offense.”
The issue with Lance—or issues, rather—is that he’s played college football for all of one full season and is from an FCS school, facing talent that’s lightyears away from any of the Power 5 conferences. Of course, you have to evaluate players independently, and Lance has a well-built, 6’3″, 224-pound frame which can get downhill in an instant.
While he had a perfect touchdown-to-interception ratio (28:0) in his lone full season, he had just 279 pass attempts in 16 games. That’s less than 18 throws per game. In North Dakota State’s power-heavy run scheme, he was used similar to how Lamar Jackson has been used as a runner in Baltimore.
But Lance isn’t in the same stratosphere as Jackson in terms of elusiveness. His straight-line speed might be comparable, but his agility on the horizontal plane leaves a lot to be desired.
His arm talent is obvious, and there are clear example of some basket-dropped dime passes pushed effortlessly down the field. But there are also plenty of examples of inconsistent accuracy, especially on “easy” throws he’ll have to make at the next level.
In his lone game in 2020, he threw an interception, looked jittery, and was not inspiring as a passer. Blame that on the layoff or short notice, but it was his one opportunity to show off this year, and in just his second career game throwing the ball more than 30 times, he didn’t look confident doing it, going 15-of-30 for 149 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT with three sacks taken. He also ran 15 times for 143 yards and 2 TD, looking, as usual, like a dominating downhill runner.
The talent and upside with Lance is clear, but his floor is terrifyingly low. He would unquestionably be a developmental prospect, not a Day 1 starter. Drafting him behind Jimmy Garoppolo might be a fantastic plan, and it might provide you the quarterback of the future, but there are more questions about Lance than any quarterback in this draft.