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49ers Mailbag: Will they regret not trading for Stafford? What now?

By

Jacob Hutchinson

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© Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Happy offseason, folks. I come to you live and direct from the post-Stafford-Goff-trade-pocalypse. I hope you’re all enjoying the weird rumors and quarterback photoshops as much as I am. And if you still have your sanity after this past year and the start of this offseason, well, please keep it to yourself.

Should the 49ers have traded for Stafford?

Questions were submitted before the Matthew Stafford trade happened, and given the volume of Stafford-related questions, this is probably the most pressing question that would have been asked.

I think both the 49ers and the Rams made the right play here. I thought it was likely the 49ers would trade for Stafford. In my estimation, he is a pretty substantial upgrade from Jimmy Garoppolo. But two first-rounders and a third-rounder was absurd and not worth matching.

While it is absurd, it’s also reasonable from the Rams’ perspective.

They upgraded substantially at quarterback and got rid of Jared Goff’s money. As far as they’re concerned, the first round doesn’t exist. Their future is now. The only team I don’t understand is the Lions. They reportedly like Goff, which is very Lions-ey of them. They get two first-round picks, both of which will likely be in the 20s, and a late third-rounder this year. Per Albert Breer, all of this was on the table.

Why they didn’t take the Carolina offer or Washington’s, I’m not totally sure. They do get Goff for cheaper, and without his guaranteed money, though, which shouldn’t be underestimated.

Will the 49ers regret not trading for Stafford? Time will tell, but at the moment, I believe they made the right choice at that cost. At some point, however, they have to make a significant upgrade from Garoppolo. Unless they upgrade the defense substantially or add someone like Kyle Pitts and a stud interior offensive lineman, there’s no viable path to this team winning the Super Bowl.

It’s not that Garoppolo’s woeful. It’s that he’s average to above average, and when you’re probably going against Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen (really hit or miss, but we saw what happens when he hits), or maybe Deshaun Watson on a competent team every year, that just doesn’t cut it.

And to be fair, he choked in the Super Bowl. Not just on that overthrow of Emmanuel Sanders, but on at least three opportunities when George Kittle was open and Garoppolo failed to throw it to him. Many of those opportunities were late in the game, when even one more first down might have been all the 49ers needed. In case you forgot.

San Francisco could luck into easier competition in the playoffs, and with Garoppolo, they’re likely to go back there. But upgrading at quarterback is a much more direct line to sustained success than trying to plug the gaps in the secondary, defensive line, offensive line, etc. in a year with a falling cap.

Tom H. asks via Facebook:

“Let’s assume all these QB rumors are just those, rumors.

Obviously Sherman is gone… Verrett is really starting to regain his Pro-Bowl form in my opinion.

Do we go after a top DB in the draft? I think it’s the right move all things considered. I haven’t forgotten that the Niners were a few minutes away from Ring #6 this time last year.

I feel like no matter who’s behind center, or carrying the ball, the offense is going to be just fine.

If you thought along the same lines as me, what would be your move if you were John Lynch?”

We’ll start with Tom’s question because it effectively asks many of the other remaining questions. I’ll break this up because it gives me a chance to break down what I think the team should do, balanced with what their philosophy tells us about what’s realistic.

Quarterback

If I’m John Lynch, I’m making a call on Deshaun Watson. I’m sure he already has.

If the price is, as John McClain of the Houston Chronicle reported, it might be viable: Two first-rounders, two second-rounders and two starting-caliber defensive players. McClain knows Houston as well as anyone, so we should assume that’s what Houston is asking for.

The last part of that equation, though, is nebulous. Does that mean Emmanuel Moseley and Kevin Givens? Dre Greenlaw? Javon Kinlaw? Fred Warner?

If I’m the 49ers, I offer those four picks, Greenlaw and Givens. I’d prefer to give up more first-rounders rather than Greenlaw, obviously, or any current starter, but that seems a just price for a 25-year-old, top-five quarterback. That said, I really doubt Watson gets traded to San Francisco, and I still think it’s unlikely they trade him at all, no matter how (rightfully) unhappy he is.

But just know that if the 49ers acquired Watson, they would go to the Super Bowl next year. The NFC is a dumpster fire as much as we try and pretend like it’s not. The NFC West is just the thick cardboard part of that dumpster fire that looks fine on the surface, but is scorched underneath. If you add Watson to the 49ers, San Francisco is the Super Bowl favorite for this conference for the next half decade. 

But alas.

The scenario we’re looking at is Garoppolo returning, with 10 draft picks:

  • Round 1, Pick 12
  • Round 2, Pick 43
  • Round 3, end of round (TBD, compensatory from Saleh leaving)
  • Round 4, Pick 108
  • Round 5, Pick 139
  • Round 5, Pick 156 (compensatory from Emmanuel Sanders leaving in free agency)
  • Round 6, Pick 170
  • Round 7, Pick 194 (from Jordan Willis trade, sent away a 2022 sixth-round pick)
  • Round 7, Pick 204

If someone like Justin Fields fell to 12, or Zach Wilson fell outside the top five, I’d draft up for Wilson only and stash either quarterback behind Garoppolo. I have way too many questions about Trey Lance to feel comfortable drafting him in the first round. He might prove me wrong, but if I’m the 49ers, I’m staying away unless it’s round two or even three, which simply is not happening.

What I am more inclined to believe is the 49ers drafting Mac Jones in the second round, assuming he’s still there. Late round one is feasible, too. He is so much like Kyle Shanahan’s favorite quarterback, Kirk Cousins, and even if he doesn’t win the starting job, he provides you invaluable quarterback depth. We’ve seen what’s happened when Garoppolo is out, and that happens all too often.

Both Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard hit free agency (Mullens restricted), and given Garoppolo’s injury frequency, an upgrade in the form of a high floor rookie quarterback who shows vision, feel in the pocket and better arm talent than he’s given credit for, is a swing worth taking.

What to do with No. 12

This team also needs a No. 2 tight end who can block, or create consistent mismatches as a receiver. The burden on Kittle needs to be lessened.

Part of the reason the run game collapsed is that it doesn’t really work without Kittle, and he sacrifices his body on every play. Ross Dwelley is a shockingly poor blocker, Jordan Reed has always been a receiving tight end who didn’t click with Nick Mullens and Charlie Woerner just does not seem to have it. I’d be happy to be proven wrong there, and maybe it was just the abruptness of this season, but the signs were not encouraging.

I feel it’s necessary to take a swing on another tight end; someone with H-back experience would help, too.

As much as it might sound like a luxury choice, this team needs weapons. Adding Kyle Pitts at 12 would raise the ceiling of this offense, allow for more 22 personnel, and provide insurance if Kyle Juszczyk leaves. With Pitts, that’s four potentially elite receiving threats on the field at the same time, and a guy who with the length to reach for some of those less-than-savory throws from Garoppolo and create serious issues for defenses in the red zone.

The only other options to me at No. 12 are corner and defensive end. Safety could be in play, too, but the safety class this year is not viewed as being particularly top-heavy, and not many, if any first-round safeties are projected.

There are four options, as I see it, with No. 12:

  • Upgrade at quarterback (someone falls or you trade up), which doesn’t seem likely at this point
  • Add another offensive weapon like Pitts or a shocker in DeVonta Smith, with the former seeming more likely, but neither seeming probable
  • Beef up the defensive line with someone like Kwity Paye or Gregory Rousseau, potentially in a trade down. Knowing this team, this seems like the most likely course of action
  • Add youth into the secondary, preferably with a corner. Starting-caliber safeties are being found in late rounds frequently. You can do the same with corners, but you’re making a likelier bet the higher you draft (duh). This is the second most-likely option, but the 49ers see the first round as a place for tackles and the defensive line, and I’d be surprised if that changes.

The cap, and looming contracts

Before we talk cap stuff, understand that it’s at $198.2 million in 2020. It’s going to drop, which hasn’t happened since 2013. It may drop to $175 million. But, most people within the league seem to believe that number will at least be $180 million. That’s the projection I’m using in tandem with contract numbers from OverTheCap.

As for those looming free agents…

  • Re-sign Trent Williams for four years, $84 million. Guarantee him half of that. Give the man what he wants, but get him for something like $15 million in year one.
  • Re-sign Kyle Juszczyk for three years, $16-18 million. The question, of course, is whether someone else will offer more
  • Re-sign Jason Verrett for two years, $14 million. Has a $5 million, fully guaranteed cap hit in 2021, $9 million partially guaranteed in 2022
  • Re-sign Emmanuel Moseley for one year on the second round restricted free agent tender at roughly $3 million
  • Re-sign Ronald Blair III for one year on the same deal as this season, unless the Jets outbid you. The 49ers have an edge here in that due to a veteran salary exception, they can offer Blair more without it hitting the cap. So, I’m predicting basically the same deal as this year, where Blair makes roughly $2.1 million, with a roughly $1.05 million cap hit.
  • Minimum guys to re-sign to one-year deals: Ben Garland, Jordan Willis, Dion Jordan, Dontae Johnson, Taybor Pepper, Daniel Brunskill, Marcell Harris

Extend Fred Warner for five years, bumping his 2021 pay, but paying him heavily in guaranteed money in year three. Let’s say, six years (including 2021), $110 million. $25 million fully guaranteed, $55 million effectively fully guaranteed, and something like $80 million protected for injury. In the final three years, his roster bonus and contract guarantees all have trigger dates.

Here’s what this could look like, using OverTheCap’s extension tool (apologies for the small font):

Routes for cap savings:

  • Cut Weston Richburg with a post-June designation if possible (I’ve got a sneaking suspicion there will be some guys left in June due to the impending cap drop), saving $7.95 million.
  • Cut Dee Ford if possible. He has $11.6 million of his salary guarantee on April 1, so it would have to be before then. The issue is that Ford has a partial injury guarantee, and it doesn’t seem exceedingly likely that he’ll be able to pass a physical by then. If his injury guarantee is for more than the $5.7 million the 49ers would save by cutting him, they may just opt to retain him, and hope he can return this year. I’m proceeding under the assumption that you cannot cut Ford.
  • Cut Mark Nzeocha to save roughly $700k
  • Extend Laken Tomlinson for another three years, saving roughly $3 million
  • Restructure Jimmie Ward’s deal, saving roughly $5 million
  • Restructure Arik Armstead’s deal, saving roughly $4.5 million

One major wrinkle is Garoppolo, who will be heading into the final year of his deal with just $1.4 million guaranteed in 2022. The 49ers definitely don’t want that number to spike, but they could easily use his contract to open up as much cap space as they want. If they moved $3 million, they could still cut him or trade him with massive cap savings, it would just cost $4.4 million in 2022, which is a very reasonable cost.

With Garoppolo, the approach should be to leave the money alone if possible, but restructure as needed.

To recap, here’s my, if-I-was-John-Lynch approach:

  • If Zach Wilson falls past 5, trade up for him. If Justin Fields falls to 12, draft him. If neither scenario happens, draft a corner, edge or Kyle Pitts at 12, possibly trading back.
  • Trade up to from the 43rd pick in the 2nd round to draft Mac Jones, assuming he’s still available. 
  • Draft an interior offensive lineman and corner or safety in the third-through-fifth rounds.
  • If potential first-rounders fall, use those extra compensatory picks to get up into the second or third round.
  • Take a tight end if you don’t take Pitts with high athletic upside, who’s at least a little crazy.
  • Use whatever late picks you have on a guy like Demetric Felton from UCLA – someone who can return kicks/punts on special teams and compete to be the fourth running back or slip into the receiving rotation. And draft a wide receiver who projects well in the slot.
  • Re-sign Trent Wiliams, Kyle Juszczyk, Jason Verrett and a bunch of one-year guys around the minimum.
  • Extend Fred Warner: Six years, $110 million, but effectively five years, $104 million.
  • Extend Laken Tomlinson for three years: Takes a pay cut in 2021, but roughly a four-year, $23 million deal
  • Restructure as needed: Jimmie Ward, Arik Armstead, Jimmy Garoppolo 
  • Cut: Weston Richburg (post June-1 if possible), Mark Nzeocha, Dee Ford (unless injury guarantee makes it untenable)

Tom M. asks on Facebook: What offensive line positions need to be upgraded in the offseason? What other offensive positions should be addressed? I see slot receiver as a big need also.

To me, Brunskill is starting somewhere. I don’t know whether that’s guard or center. Weston Richburg should be, and likely will be cut. Ben Garland could be back, but Garland and Brunskill is not what this team should enter the season with. Few teams could benefit more from an athletic interior player than the 49ers.

The responsibility they put on guards and centers to pull and get second level in the run game is almost unparalleled. They should look to the draft for an upgrade there, or hope that Alex Mack really wants to play with Kyle Shanahan again and will do so at less than market value.

San Francisco has drafted a receiver every year since 2002. It’s about to be 19-straight years. I think Kendrick Bourne gets a better deal elsewhere, and the 49ers make a late swing at a shifty special teams player who can project in the slot.

As I mentioned above, tight end is a far more pressing need for this team than gets credit for. Dwelley is a liability as a blocker, Woerner didn’t show much last year, and who knows if Jordan Reed will be back. They need someone to take some pressure off Kittle.

And if you’re saying, “Well the Chiefs don’t need that with Travis Kelce,”… Kelce is a wide receiver. Kittle effectively is the 49ers’ run game.

Josh B. asks via Facebook: What do you foresee happening with the defensive backfield? 

Verrett, Moseley and Harris re-sign. Everyone else departs and hopefully gets paid what they’re worth in a very uncertain market.

Jeff S. asks via Facebook: Is Deebo the best young receiver in the league ?

No. Justin Jefferson on Minnesota is better. There are a handful of others. 

Omar A. asks via Facebook: Why cant we get rid of Dee “broken down like a ford” Ford?

First of all, boo. Boooooo. BOOOOOOOOOOO.

That is maybe the worst attempt at an insulting nickname I’ve ever seen. It’s also just unnecessarily insulting and I hate the notion some people hold that athletes should be chastised for being injured. But, horrible nickname aside, it’s a fair question.

Ford underwent serious back surgery when he was in Kansas City and his doctor wasn’t sure if he’d ever walk again leading up to it. Discernibly what he’s dealing with is related to that, and let’s hope, football aside, he gets healthy.

From a business perspective, though, part of Ford’s 2021 money is guaranteed for injury, meaning he gets that money if he can’t pass a physical. And if the 49ers don’t cut him by April 1, $11.6 million of his $15.1 million base salary becomes guaranteed. If they were to cut him, they’d save $5.7 million, but if his injury guarantee is more than that, they may just have to bite the bullet and hope he gets healthy later in the year.

Garret C. asks via Instagram: What would it take to bring back Juszczyk?

It’s tough to know who they’re bidding against, but I have to imagine it’s a similar deal to the one he signed back in 2017, but for three years instead of four. To me, in a market like this, I can’t imagine Juszczyk getting more than $7 million per year. It feels like three years, $16-18 million.

Rda asks via Instagram: Why is McGlinchey so terrible?

*In pass protection*

He lost weight and couldn’t anchor. That also allowed him to get into space more effectively, but he didn’t need to improve as a run blocker. McGlinchey is clearly one of those offensive linemen that you need to keep fat. Like Staley, the second you’re not force-feeding him, he’ll start losing weight. It’s a great quality to have in terms of long-term health, but not for being an elite offensive linemen. Because he’s so tall, at 6’8″ he, especially, needs a heavier base, or he’s basically a power forward.

My belief is that because he struggled with speed rushers in 2019, he set out to slim down a bit, and instead, he just got bull-rushed into oblivion. He needs to add at least 10-15 pounds in this offseason. He’ll always be a dominant run blocker and showed pass blocking upside in the past, but really needs to work extensively over the offseason on finding the right playing weight and getting his footwork right so that he’s not overcompensating for specific types of rushers.

Mlb asks via Instagram: Should we trade McGlinchey?

No, at least not right now, unless a team offers a first-rounder for him, which I really don’t imagine happening. I thought 2020 would be a breakout year for him which… woof.

He’s a great bellwether for the team. If McGlinchey is playing well, the 49ers are probably playing well, and vice versa. He’s a guy who seems to feed off energy, so when the run game starts working, you tend to see the mistakes in pass protection decrease.

Josh asks via Instagram: Is there anyway they keep Tartt?

To me, after Trent Williams, the 49ers can only afford to re-sign two of Jaquiski Tartt, Jason Verrett, K’Waun Williams and Kyle Juszczyk, and maybe only one, depending on who they’re willing to restructure. It’s difficult to tell what he’ll get in this market, and he’s a crucial glue in the secondary. But if it’s him or Verrett or Juszczyk, I lean towards Tartt being the odd man out.

Del asks via Instagram: Would Charlie Woerner be able to replace Jus if the 49ers can’t re-sign him?

No. Not even close based on what we saw this season. He got bullied as a blocker which… was sort of his whole thing in college.

FD asks via Instagram: Is Bosa going to return to DROY form?

Bosa’s going to be fine. The guy was literally created to sack quarterbacks.

Madison M. asks via Instagram: What is our secondary going to look like for 2021? Who might stay? What new additions?

I expect the secondary is Verrett, Moseley, Ward and Moore, with a rookie at slot corner, and a handful of undrafted rookie free agents. They’ll need to get more depth than that, but that’s roughly the foundation. They need to swing on athleticism like the Chiefs did with L’Jariud Sneed.

Dan M. asks via Instagram: Can you see Ronald Blair III returning? What is the cap savings/hit on Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon?

  1. Yes. I’d expect him back on that $2 million-ish deal that only costs about $1 million on the cap.
  2. They’re both gone. McKinnon has a $2 million dead cap and Coleman has no dead cap.

Elias B. asks via Instagram: Who will be in the backfield?

Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr., JaMycal Hasty and a rookie undrafted free agent who will somehow be solid enough to start.

Danny B. asks via Instagram: Do we need to get another offensive weapon?

I suspect Kendrick Bourne gets better offers elsewhere, so there could be a hole for a third-down type receiver, though maybe Richie James Jr. steps into that. Again, I firmly believe this team needs to swing on an athletic tight end who could project, potentially as a fullback replacement for Kyle Juszczyk and is either a reliable blocker to start his career or a receiving threat.

Jason C. asks via Instagram: Does a 100 percent healthy Jimmy Garoppolo give us a Super Bowl run?

Probably. This team is well-coached enough and the NFC is weak enough (though the Rams are genuinely scary now) that it wouldn’t totally surprise me to see this team get back to the Super Bowl with Garoppolo. I’m not making that bet, but it’s not really the NFC you need to worry about. It’s the Chiefs and Bills, and maybe even the Ravens (though I’d like the 49ers’ chances in that matchup). I’m definitely not betting on San Francisco against Kansas City or Buffalo with Garoppolo.

Thomas W. asks via Instagram: What is the No. 1 priority? Finding a new QB or keeping the team together?

It’s re-signing Trent Williams, extending Fred Warner, and making cap maneuvers to be able to make moves that allow for other retentions and upgrades. This team doesn’t go back to the Super Bowl with Garoppolo unless you get reinforcements (in addition to Bosa) on the defensive line or offense (offensive line, tight end, fullback), or the secondary.

There are a lot of holes to plug with not much cap space, and unless Garoppolo takes a leap or the 49ers are willing to restructure his deal to open up cap space, they’re going to have to make moves to raise their ceiling independent of his.

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