© Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Richard Sherman understands the numbers. He’s one of the few NFL players, like Deandre Hopkins, who negotiates his own contracts, and tends to do so successfully. The 32-year-old corner said last week that his time with San Francisco, though fruitful and enjoyable, is almost certainly nearing its end.
He reaffirmed that on Thursday, matter-of-factly pointing out that, especially with a salary cap that’s likely to drop, and the 49ers with more than 40 pending free agents, there’s no room for him.
“If there’s some miracle that happens then, sure, there’s an opening,” Sherman said. “But there’s 40 free agents and they’ll probably have $30 million or less in cap space. They got to bring back Trent who costs over $20 million, they have to pay Fred who costs, $18 million plus a year. So I mean, anybody who knows the situation understands that.”
That’s a rare thing, for a player to assess the cap which such incisiveness. But it’s Richard Sherman, a guy who’s long been known for winning with his mind first, and his body second.
The numbers that Sherman put up? They’re accurate.
Bobby Wagner is currently the top-paid inside linebacker in the NFL, making $18 million per year, but he’s also 30 years old. Fred Warner can be argued as the best linebacker in football, and he turned 24 last month.
We broke down the money that’s coming Trent Williams’ way here, but put simply, there were three massive left tackle extensions handed out recently, all near or above the $20 million per year threshold. That’s roughly what Williams is in for, with the only thing that could go against him being his age (he turns 33 this offseason).
Williams confirmed on Thursday that, as part of a contract restructure at the start of the season—in which the 49ers effectively gave him a cash advance, guaranteeing him money early—the team gave up the option of franchise-tagging him in the offseason. It was a good-faith move, but one which ridded the 49ers of the only tangible leverage they have over him.
The salary cap can land anywhere from $175 million to more than the current $198.2 million figure, but it is almost certain to drop, and Pro Football Talk recently reported the number will likely be around $195 million.
If that number is indeed accurate, the 49ers would have roughly $40 million in cap space. As we also explored here, there are a few easy ways to clear more:
Cuts:
- Jimmy Garoppolo: Saves $24.1 million
- Dee Ford: Saves $6.43 million
- Weston Richburg: Saves $4.89 million
- Robbie Gould: Saves $3.75 million
- Mark Nzeocha: Saves $1.6 million
Assuming that $195 million cap, with these five cuts, San Francisco could create as much as $80-plus million in cap space. One complicating factor is that Dee Ford has a reported partial injury guarantee for 2021, so if he can’t get healthy, it may cost too much to cut him.
Warner’s deal likely won’t immediately go to $18 million next season, but even if it did, and if the 49ers gave Williams $20 million per year, that would leave more than $42 million in cap space.
That all, of course, depends on the quarterback position. If Garoppolo gets cut, there’s either going to be a more expensive quarterback traded for, or a combination of a fairly cheap veteran and rookie at the position.
It’s the only path which could leave the door open for Sherman’s return, and it looks unlikely, because it’s not just Williams and Warner.
The following players are among the team’s free agents:
Jaquiski Tartt, K’Waun Williams, Kyle Juszczyk, Solomon Thomas, Kendrick Bourne, Ben Garland, Kerry Hyder, Ronald Blair, Ezekiel Ansah, Jordan Reed, Jason Verrett, Ahkello Witherspoon, Jamar Taylor, C.J. Beathard, Jordan Willis, Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon.
The following players are among the restricted free agents:
Nick Mullens, Ross Dwelley, Jeff Wilson Jr., Daniel Brunskill, Emmanuel Moseley, D.J. Jones, Marcell Harris
Even if San Francisco clears cap space, which is just about a certainty, Sherman seems to know he’s not returning. The corner position will look different, and likely younger next year.