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Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle may be out for the season. It’s unclear if Dee Ford will return. Richard Sherman, Deebo Samuel, Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Jeff Wilson Jr. are all out for the time being.
So… time to tank?
It’s not as simple as this team suddenly flipping a switch to tank, nor is it likely they’ll be a legitimate playoff contender. They’re firmly in no-man’s land. Too well-coached and still with enough depth to remain competitive, but spread too thin from a talent perspective for their pre-season goals of chasing a Super Bowl to remain realistic.
Here’s the remainder of the schedule:
Week 9 – Nov. 5 vs. Green Bay (5-2)
Week 10 – Nov. 15 at New Orleans (5-2)
Week 11 – BYE
Week 12 – Nov. 29 at Los Angeles Rams (5-3)
Week 13 – Dec. 7 vs. Buffalo (6-2)
Week 14 – Dec. 13 vs. Washington (2-5)
Week 15 – Dec. 20 at Dallas (2-6)
Week 16 – Dec. 26 or 27 at Arizona (5-2)
Week 17 – Jan. 3 vs. Seattle (6-1)
That’s a tough schedule.
But it also includes two games against Washington and Dallas who are both putrid teams.
It features another divisional game against the Cardinals, who are a mercurial team and seem destined to split the season series with San Francisco, regardless of who’s on the field.
There’s a New Orleans team saddled with injuries of its own and not nearly the dominant force they expected to be, and teams in Green Bay and Los Angeles, who have head coaches in Matt LaFleur and Sean McVay, who seem to have an unmistakable understudy-to-Shanahan complex about them. That’s an ethereal assessment, and maybe without Garoppolo, the 49ers get walloped by them, but it’s hard to shake the feeling that they’re often at their worst against Shanahan.
This is not to say the 49ers are going to win all of those games, go 9-7 and make the playoffs. But it’s not a completely absurd scenario. I find them being a playoff team as more likely than winning one game the rest of the way and falling firmly into a top-10 draft slot.
Their defense is still solid and elite in coverage and smothering the run game, though severely lacking in pass rush. Raheem Mostert should return eventually, and JaMycal Hasty is clearly a decent, if not store-brand version of him in the interim. Deebo Samuel will return, and Brandon Aiyuk is emerging as a star. Jordan Reed could return Thursday, replacing the hole of Kittle’s absence. Even Richard Sherman and possibly (though it doesn’t seem exceedingly likely) Dee Ford could return. Ronald Blair III could return after the bye week and possibly give some teeth to this toothless pass rush.
Yes, this team is missing its best two players in George Kittle and Nick Bosa (Fred Warner is in that echelon too) and its starting quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo. But Garoppolo was abysmal and unhealthy, and the defense has found its footing, for the most part, without a sustained pass rush. Nick Mullens isn’t an upgrade, but if he follows the script, they can’t be written off.
San Francisco has one of the league’s best coaching staffs, and is excellent at finding replacements. Though they’re as depleted as ever, they still seem likely to finish 7-9 or 8-8.
Having said that, winning two games the rest of the way is by no means out of the realm of possibility. On paper, it’s still clearly one of the league’s toughest schedules, with only Washington and Dallas representing easy games. If they go 6-10, they would likely find themselves in the top 10 of the draft. Just keep in mind, there are a lot of horrible teams out there, and those horrible teams have a head start on San Francisco, and are built to tank.
If they do go that way, it at least puts them in contention for a top quarterback.
Trevor Lawrence is destined to end up with the New York Jets, and Justin Fields, who is widely projected to be the second quarterback off the board and a top-five pick, is probably also out of reach. But being in the top 10 gives San Francisco options if they want to look for a new franchise quarterback: North Dakota State’s Trey Lance, BYU’s Zach Wilson among the more popular names in that range.
Of course, Jimmy Garoppolo could still return, or Kyle Shanahan could look to acquire Kirk Cousins or Matt Ryan for way too steep a price. While Garoppolo seems probable to be on his way out, the plan at the quarterback spot has no clarity at the moment.
Thursday’s game will tell us just an enormous amount about what this team will look like the rest of the way. If they can rediscover their run game and limit quarterback turnovers, they’ll still be a problem.
The arrow seems to be pointing firmly down, but at present, it’s hard to see this team suddenly falling off a cliff and joining the NFL’s tournament of tankers. No man’s land awaits.