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On March 16, the San Francisco 49ers traded away DeForest Buckner, who was by all accounts, a franchise cornerstone, and clearly one of the best players at his position. Four days later, Emmanuel Sanders announced he would be signing with the New Orleans Saints.
The 49ers’ needs were apparent for even the armchair-iest of GMs: a defensive tackle and outside wide receiver.
Those needs were filled Thursday with the selection South Carolina defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw, after a one-slot trade down, and Arizona State wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk after a six-slot trade up.
First, let’s state this: these are two immensely talented football players who will immediately start for the 49ers.
Worst case? Best case?
The worst case for Kinlaw is that his knee tendinitis hobbles him, and he can’t develop the technical polish without that requisite explosion, and flames out of the league after the end of his first contract due to injury.
The best case is that he’s equally as dominant an interior presence as DeForest Buckner and necessitates double teams on every snap. If he fulfills his promise, he could be better than Buckner, and a cornerstone on a dominant defensive line for years to come.
The worst case for Aiyuk is that he doesn’t bulk up, can’t deal with press coverage at the line of scrimmage and becomes a return specialist.
The best case is that he’s a more than decade-long stud with the 49ers, racking up yards after the catch, used as a blazing returner for at least his first few seasons and becomes part of a trio with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle that creates a new brand of receiving domination in San Francisco lore: the hydra of physical, yards-after-catch options who are given big-play opportunities by arguably the best offensive mind in football.
Were they the right moves?
You can get the right player and still make the wrong trade. The initial instinct was that the 49ers overpaid for Aiyuk, but not because a fourth- and fifth-round pick are supremely valuable for a team like the 49ers, who actually came ahead in the trade value estimator. It also wasn’t an overpay because they have few spots to fill on the roster, nor because that fourth-round pick, in combination with Kinlaw, compose the entirety of the team’s trade haul for Buckner.
It’s that now the 49ers have little conceivable way to move into the second, or even third round, unless they’re willing to part with picks in 2021. They now have that original pick gap from the first through fifth round. If they wanted to draft a Joe Staley replacement and a future Richard Sherman replacement, the equation got much more complicated to do so.
Having that fourth and extra fifth would have made a trade up into the third, or potentially second round fairly seamless, and a trade back from pick 31 obviously would have provided even more options. They’ll almost certainly need to trade a 2021 third and their remaining fifth (where they haven’t missed on a pick in the Shanahan era, though D.J. Reed is TBD) in order to get to the third round.
There seemed to be enough wide receiving depth for the 49ers to target in the early second round in a trade down for someone like Clemson’s Tee Higgins or USC’s Michael Pittman. But San Francisco saw a substantial drop in talent after Aiyuk, and they made a move to get him.
One issue is that you’re replacing Buckner with Kinlaw and Sanders with Aiyuk. It is unlikely either of the latter will be as good as the former from the get-go. So you’re losing talent, but replacing it for the long-haul with cheaper options, and you don’t have other picks to prepare for the future at key positions.
You have to address the secondary, and Joe Staley could retire (NBC Sports’ Matt Maiocco said he doubts Staley returns) this offseason.
There were plenty of projected second and third-round options at corner and tackle that the 49ers are probably now priced out of, and Tristan Wirfs was a ready-made Staley replacement.
The only assets the 49ers have been reportedly willing to trade away are running back Matt Breida, receiver Marquise Goodwin and quarterback C.J. Beathard. None of those players likely warrant more than a sixth-round pick, if that. Breida is probably the most valuable, and could maybe fetch a fifth.
In theory, the 49ers could acquire a triplet of sixth-round picks and use that to trade up, but there’s a limit to that, and again, that’s the value ceiling for all three. Unless they want to trade away players they need, the 49ers probably won’t be adding anybody on Day 2.
Are there options already on the roster?
Richard Sherman, Ahkello Witherspoon, K’Waun Williams, Jaquiski Tartt and Emmanuel Moseley (restricted free agent) all have expiring contracts next season. It seems doubtful that all will return, so the 49ers must be very high on Tim Harris, who spent all season on injured reserve. Lynch said on Monday he, “was having a really good camp and then had to go to Injured Reserve, but a guy that we’re excited about working with moving forward.”
The 49ers may also still have hope for D.J. Reed Jr., who could be Williams’ eventual nickel replacement, are planning to bring most of those players above back, or have another move or two up their sleeve.
Maybe there’s also enough confidence in Justin Skule, Shon Coleman, or Daniel Brunskill to replace Staley if he leaves, at least for a year or two. All seem like capable, above average players, but Skule, who was surprisingly decent in his rookie year as a sixth-round pick, needs to add strength and improve substantially, and Coleman is coming off a fractured fibula. And if you want to replace Staley, don’t you want the athletic foundation of a high-round pick, and give them at least a season to learn from him?
If Tartt leaves, the 49ers will be in serious trouble, unless they think Tarvarius Moore can transition to strong safety, or they can find a late-round value pick there this year. Thus far, they’ve been unable to find a capable coverage safety to back up Tartt. The team’s interviews suggest they were looking at backup options like Auburn’s Daniel Thomas.
The major downside of the moves is that the 49ers are in the toughest division in football, and they need youth in the secondary. Options like Virginia’s Bryce Hall, Utah’s Jaylon Johnson and Alabama’s Trevon Diggs, or even a safety like Xavier McKinney are no longer in a viable range, unless the 49ers sacrifice 2021 picks, which may be in consideration.
This is not a suggestion that San Francisco will be in ruins next offseason, or that they made mistakes with either selection, but for now, they are spreading themselves very thin in the secondary, and are betting on Ahkello Witherspoon and Emmanuel Moseley (and maybe Tim Harris or another late-round corner?) taking leaps in the coming year.
Those aren’t terrible bets, especially given Moseley’s standout season last year and the team’s ability to find late-round value, but Sherman turns 33 next offseason, and there’s no clear successor for him. There’s no real Day 1 replacement option for Tartt, either, if he leaves. That could be a dangerous proposition, as is the notion of not going with early-round talent to protect Jimmy Garoppolo’s blind side, should Staley retire.
The remaining concerns are only in part about who the 49ers drafted; if Kinlaw and Aiyuk are healthy, they will be successful. It’s about the fact that 49ers are out of place to replace key, highly-valued positions, unless they continue to steal from their own future. By no means were their Day 1 trades terrible moves, but they have pressing questions to answer, and limited capital answer them with.