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The NFL draft is Thursday night. In some ways, it feels like the Super Bowl just happened, and in others, it feels like we’ve been waiting for the draft for eons. Starting Thursday, all the prediction, speculation and film evaluation will all add up to something, maybe. Either way, the 49ers will be participating in the NFL’s first, and maybe only fully virtual draft, which will hold a place in history. Below is my final draft guide, including what we know about the 49ers’ draft approach, what I think they will do, and what I would do.
What we know
Team’s interviews (most tracked by The Athletic’s Matt Barrows)
QB: James Morgan, FIU (Day 3, Round 4 and 6), Mason Fine, North Texas (priority free agent)
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin (Late Round 1, Early Round 2), Raymond Calais (Late Day 3, Rounds 6-7) Salvon Ahmed, Washington (Late Day 3, Rounds 6-7), Reggie Corbin, Illinois (PFA), Artavis Pierce, Oregon State (PFA), Tra Minter, South Alabama (PFA)
TE: Devin Asiasi, UCLA (Rounds 3-4), Hunter Bryant, Washington (Rounds 3-4), Dalton Keene (informal, at Combine, Rounds 5-7)
WR: Henry Ruggs III, Alabama (Top 20), CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma (Top 20), Denzel Mims, Baylor (Round 1-2), Lynn Bowden, Kentucky (Round 3-4), Quez Watkins, Souther Mississippi (Round 6), Aaron Fuller, Washington (Round 7, PFA)
OT: Josh Jones, Houston (Rounds 1-2), Ezra Cleveland, Boise State (Round 2)
IOL: Luke Juriga, C, Western Michigan (PFA), Cordel Iwuagwu, G, TCU (Late Day 3, PFA)
DT: Ross Blacklock, TCU (Late Round 1, Round 2), Jordan Elliott, Missouri (Rounds 2-3), Raekwon Davis (Late Round 2, Round 3), Malcolm Roach, Texas (Rounds 5-6)
DE: Yetur Gross-Matos, Penn State (Round 1-2), Kenny Willekes, Michigan State (Round 4-5)
LB: Akeem Davis-Gaither (Round 2-3), Shaun Bradley, Temple (Round 7, PFA), Cash Maluia, Wyoming (PFA)
CB: C.J. Henderson (Top 20), Luqman Barcoo, SD State (PFA), Tyler Hall, Wyoming (PFA)
S: Ashtyn Davis, Cal (Rounds 1-2), Daniel Thomas, Auburn (Rounds 6-7), Kameron Curl, Arkansas (Rounds 6-7), Jalen Elliott, Notre Dame (Rounds 6-7)
Top needs:
1a. Wide receiver
1b. Cornerback
1c. Defensive tackle
2a. Tight end
2b. Center (who can play guard)
2c. Offensive tackle
3a. Linebacker
3b. Strong safety
3c. Running back
What they like
The overarching themes of the Shanahan and Lynch era are athleticism plus football IQ. It’s not exact, but they love speed and… broad jump. If there’s a debate between two players, the elite broad jumper tends to win. The 49ers have added to their defensive line and wide receiver corps early in every draft, and they’ll likely do the same again in 2020, but with defensive line often favored over wide receiver. They’ve also shown willingness to do the same with the offensive line (Mike McGlinchey) and linebacker. Below are their picks in the first three rounds, and the values they look for:
Defensive end: 1st round (Solomon Thomas, 17′, Nick Bosa, 19′)
Wide receiver: 2nd round (Deebo Samuel, 19′, Dante Pettis, 18′), 3rd round (Jalen Hurd, 19′)
Tackle: 1st round (Mike McGlinchey, 18′)
Linebacker: 1st round (Reuben Foster, 17′), 3rd round (Fred Warner, 18′)
Corner: 3rd round (Ahkello Witherspoon, 17′)
Safety: 3rd round (Tarvarius Moore, 18′)
Quarterback: 3rd round (C.J. Beathard, 17′)
- At skill positions: Speed, raw athleticism, willingness to block
- At line positions: Broad jump, get-off, projectability
- At linebacker: Speed, 3-cone, college production
- At corner: Athleticism, projectability, IQ, instincts
- At safety: Speed, aggressive tackling
What I would do
This is my ideal mock draft. I had another version (PFF’s mock draft tool crapped out on me) which I thought was more realistic in terms of pick selections (not trades), but similar. It had the following trades:
Pick 13 for Picks 22, 58, 89 with Minnesota
Pick 22 for Pick 24, 88 with New Orleans
Pick 24: Austin Jackson, T, USC
Pick 31 for Pick 48, 68, 212 with New York Jets
Pick 48, 156 for 46 with Denver (I don’t know if I buy Denver doing this, but PFF did)
Pick 48: Michael Pittman Jr., WR, USC
Pick 58: Bryce Hall, CB, Virginia
Pick 68: Raekwon Davis, IDL, Alabama
Pick 88: Jonathan Greenard, EDGE, Florida
Pick 89: Akeem Davis-Gaither, LB, Appalachian State
Pick 176: Joshua Kelley, RB, UCLA
Pick 210, 217 for Pick 187 with Los Angeles Chargers
Pick 187: Dalton Keene, FB/TE, Virginia Tech
Pick 212, 245 for Pick 201 with Chicago
Pick 201: Tanner Muse, SS, Clemson
Here’s the other, similar version of that, still acquiring an exciting, high-production linebacker in Logan Wilson, another interior defensive lineman with strength and upside in McTelvin Agim, and picking up a potential late-round gem in Virginia’s Joe Reed.
- In most scenarios, I would trade down from No. 13. CeeDee Lamb might be the only player I wouldn’t trade away the pick for, and I’d give consideration to Javon Kinlaw, though his knee tendinitis, and need to develop polish as a player would give me pause. There’s also the rare case of someone like Isaiah Simmons or one of the top three tackles dropping.
- Outside of those cases, I would trade down in almost every situation, unless there weren’t any enticing offers on the table. Based on the reports of the Atlanta Falcons being aggressive in wanting to trade up, I find that hard to believe. Someone will want Henderson, one of the three wide receivers, one of the elite offensive tackles or one of the two defensive tackles.
- I wouldn’t draft C.J. Henderson at 13. While you don’t need to be a tremendous tackler to be a successful corner, the 49ers’ mostly Cover-3 scheme (defensive coordinator Robert Saleh switched adjusted to mainly Cover-3 rather than Cover-2 last season) necessitates good tacklers. Cover-3 is less tackle-demanding than Cover-2, but it still means you keep everything in front of you and shut down short yardage plays with solid tackling form. Henderson can’t, or won’t tackle, and that’s concerning not just from a scheme perspective, but from a mindset standpoint. That said, he’s got immense physical traits, and has the footwork, ball-tracking and technique to make for an elite man-to-man corner.
- I would only draft a wide receiver at No. 13 if CeeDee Lamb was available. Otherwise, I would trade down and maximize value.
- I would not draft Derrick Brown in the first round. He’s a run-oriented nose tackle, and likely a very good one at that. But if you see run-first, you should run from that pick. Don’t draft an interior defensive lineman early if he’s a run-first player.
- There is almost no scenario in which I would keep the 31st pick, barring something like LSU’s Justin Jefferson falling there, or a tackle like USC’s Austin Jackson or Houston’s Josh Jones being available.
- I would look for a developmental tackle prospect like St. John’s Ben Bartch late in Round 3 if addressing other positions before tackle.
Potential surprises
Don’t be surprised to see the 49ers draft a running back. One of the four running backs they have will be gone, and it’s likely Matt Breida, and potentially Tevin Coleman. Raheem Mostert, Coleman, Breida and Jerick McKinnon are all free agents next season. That’s why, in addition to seeing him as the second-best back on the roster, I don’t see them parting ways with Jeff Wilson Jr. Youth has to be replenished there, and if it’s not in the mid rounds (I don’t think it should be), look for a Day 3 speed back: Raymond Calais.
Two tight ends in the draft? If the 49ers can’t acquire a tight end in a trade (O.J. Howard, anyone?), they’re going to draft one. Either way, they’re drafting a tight end. All they have on the roster is George Kittle, Ross Dwelley and Daniel Helm. Helm isn’t going to cut it, and Dwelley hasn’t shown he can be a capable No. 2 yet. All signs coming from Santa Clara are that Shanahan wants a viable No. 2 behind Kittle. That could take the form of someone like Dayton’s Adam Trautman, UCLA’s Devin Asiasi and Virginia Tech’s Dalton Keene. Keene is viewed as a fifth-through-seventh-rounder and is hyper-athletic, a great blocker and could replace Kyle Juszczyk at fullback in the long term, so if the 49ers go early on a tight end, Keene could still be in play.
Another EDGE? I actually think the 49ers are in need of another edge rusher. Dee Ford proved he couldn’t stay healthy last season, and regardless, is a liability in the run game. Then you have Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Ronald Blair III (who tore his ACL last year) and Kerry Hyder, who hasn’t been productive since 2016. With Buckner gone, the 49ers cannot afford to have a let-off on the edge, which happened in the second half of last season, when the defense struggled with the likes of Jeremiah Valoaga and Anthony Zettel. A look at someone like Jonathan Greenard from Florida, who’s very much in the Dee Ford speed mold, but much more physical, could make sense.
Favorite players in the draft
QB: James Morgan (late-round steal, projectable starter)
RBs: Jonathan Taylor (pure stud, electric speed), Joshua Kelley (speed, physical, productive, late-round value)
FB/TE: Dalton Keene (tremendous athleticism, elite blocker, projectable as a starting tight end/fullback)
TE: Adam Trautman (maybe the best receiving tight end in the draft, athletic), Devin Asiasi (all-around solid athletic foundation, great route running, hands)
WR: CeeDee Lamb (absolute stud), Brandon Aiyuk (dynamic speed, aggression, deep threat, return ability, wiggle), James Proche (absolute slot legend)
OT: Wills/Wirfs/Thomas, Austin Jackson (tremendous athleticism, mindset, can develop for a year) Ben Bartch (Division III diamond, like Brunskill a TE converted to tackle. Played against my alma mater Chapman University, whose head football coach Bob Owens said he only got better as the game went on, was lined up against Chapman’s best player, an edge rusher who’s met with the Chargers as a potential PFA option next year).
IOL: Cesar Ruiz (utter monster), Lloyd Cushenberry (athleticism, IQ, makeup, will get more dynamic)
DE: Chase Young (send help), K’Lavon Chaisson (Dee Ford-like), Derrek Tuszka (small school stud who has the best motor in the draft), Jonathan Greenard (Dee Ford lite with more strength)
DT: Javon Kinlaw (the craziest get-off I’ve seen in some time), Neville Gallimore (powerful, unreal swim move, great get-off), Tyler Clark (never loses ground, late-round stud, was on the best run defense in the country at Georgia), Josiah Coatney (also doesn’t lose ground, just drives and drives)
LB: Isaiah Simmons (freakiest athlete in the draft), Malik Harrison (also a freak athlete, closing speed), Akeem Davis-Gaither, Justin Strnad (both quick, small school guys who are ever-present
CB: Bryce Hall (favorite player in the draft, led the NCAA with 21 PBUs his junior year), Noah Igbinoghene (athletic, hip-flipping ability, better natural ability than given credit for), Javaris Davis (will be a star nickel in the league, just relentless, doesn’t allow big plays, can match up with bigger guys)
S: Xavier McKinney (aggression at all times, constantly makes plays), Ashtyn Davis (total freak athlete, reads the secondary well and not afraid to hit, will be stud in the right defense)
P: Michael Turk (the maniac below)
Arizona State punter Michael Turk puts up 25 repetitions on the bench press at the 2020 NFL Scouting Combine pic.twitter.com/UWt3oVgnEu
— David Schuman (@CoachSchuman) March 1, 2020
Least favorite players in the draft
QB: Jake Fromm (bad ball placement), Nate Stanley (flat Stanley, throws ducks)
WR: K.J. Hamler (dropped 16.7 percent of his attempts, too small), Donovan Peoples-Jones (drops the ball a lot, but an athletic phenom)
TE: Brycen Hopkins (softest tight end in the draft, refuses to block), Albert Okwuegbunam (not actually good at anything, just has a projectable body)
OT: Lucas Niang (poor footwork, loses ground frequently)
DT: Leki Fotu (way too slow, lacks any agility), Derrick Brown (run stuffer, avoid in the first two rounds)
DE: D.J. Wonnum (although he’s worth taking a shot on with a sixth-round pick given his physical ability)
CB: Kristian Fulton (really shaky footwork)
S: Grant Delpit (injuries have ruined his tackling form and aggression, doesn’t close downhill quickly)
Quarterback
As far as I’m concerned, the only name you need to keep in mind is Florida International University’s James Morgan. The 49ers aren’t taking a quarterback before Round 5, and any quarterback pick would be a substantial statement by the organization that C.J. Beathard is on the way out (or potentially Nick Mullens). According to The Athletic’s Michael Lombardi, the 49ers reportedly rebuffed every offer they received for Mullens this offseason, which makes perfect sense. Deep down, they know C.J. Beathard is not a capable quarterback.
If he was, you’d trade Mullens and feel great about Beathard as your No. 2. Mullens is leaps and bounds above Beathard, but he’s a restricted free agent next summer. Mullens will eventually leave, or he’ll succeed Jimmy Garoppolo (it might sound absurd, but Mullens was the best quarterback during much of camp – yes, against a recovering from ACL repair version of Garoppolo). Either way, the 49ers will need another young quarterback within the next two seasons. Morgan is a perfect candidate for that, assuming he doesn’t rise (there’s some buzz around him). Mason Fine, a likely undrafted, undersized QB, is another option.
Running back
In an ideal world, the 49ers would be drafting Jonathan Taylor from Wisconsin. But they’ve got five running backs on the roster because they cannot help themselves. Tevin Coleman can still be cut or traded, but the 49ers will be set with that $2 million dead cap hit. Matt Breida is reportedly on the trading block as well with his second-round tender value of $3.26 million.
The only true lock for the final roster is Raheem Mostert, and borderline lock of Jeff Wilson Jr. (he’s the second-best and cheapest running back on the roster and will be a restricted free agent next year).
The thing is, the 49ers will, in all likelihood, lose Breida by next season. Coleman, Mostert and Jerick McKinnon are all free agents next season. They need youth (which comes cheap through the draft). They’ll be investing a draft pick in a running back next year if it’s not this year. There’s an elite class of backs that will be out of the 49ers’ range in the late first through third round. The fourth round is probably too early. But one fit that is ideal and under the radar, is Joshua Kelley of UCLA.
What Kyle Shanahan values most in a running back is speed. He wants guys, as Mostert and Breida and even Coleman have exemplified at times, to hit the line of scrimmage at full speed. Backs have to have the intelligence to know when to be patient, when, say, an outside zone play will take time to develop, but not caution. When a hole appears it needs to be hit, and hard.
So the criteria is speed (preferably with wiggle), aggression hitting the hole, and secondarily, pass-catching ability. Kelley doesn’t have the college track record of catching passes, but he’s a fantastic run fit (has the straight-line speed, wiggle, and broad jump which the 49ers love) and projected to go at earliest in the fourth round, and most likely in the fifth. He’s sort of in the Tevin Coleman mold, and ran for 1,060 yards and exactly 12 TDs in back-to-back seasons. He’s the best 49ers running back fit.
Tight end
This has been described as a poor tight end class, which in terms of breadth of quality, is a fair assessment. But there will be Day 1 starter-caliber tight ends to come out of this draft:
- Cole Kmet, JR, Notre Dame
- Adam Trautman, JR, Dayton
- Harrison Bryant, SR, Florida Atlantic University
- Dalton Keene, JR, Virginia Tech
- Devin Asiasi, SR, UCLA
- Thaddeus Moss, JR, LSU
- Brycen Hopkins, SR, Purdue
- Hunter Bryant, SR, Washington
- Colby Parkinson, JR, Stanford
- Josiah Deguara, SR, Cincinnati
In terms of fit for what the 49ers are looking for physically, there is: Kmet, Trautman, Keene, Asiasi, Hopkins.
Kmet will go too high (almost certainly the first tight end off the board), while Hopkins is a nonexistent blocking presence. Trautman needs work as a blocker, but is willing, with decent form, and is a tremendously athletic receiving presence. Asiasi is a pretty well-rounded, athletic option with great hands and route-running ability. Keene is my personal favorite, who can play H-back and be the heir to the Kyle Juszczyk throne. He’s also an athletic freak with a floor as an athletic, serviceable blocker and viewed as a later Day 3 pick (remember George Kittle?). I think they’ll target Asiasi, Keene or Colby Parkinson (the ole Stanford connection.)
Wide receiver
It’s almost exhausting to continue to talk about how deep this wide receiver class is. There will be viable options in every round of the draft, but I rank the elite caliber:
- CeeDee Lamb
- Justin Jefferson
- Jerry Jeudy
- Henry Ruggs
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Tee Higgins
- Denzel Mims
- Michael Pittman
- Laviska Shenault
- Jalen Reagor
It’s all about speed and fitting the X position for the 49ers, so think: Lamb, Ruggs, Aiyuk, Higgins, Mims and Pittman. There are other options, like South Carolina and former Deebo Samuel teammate Bryan Edwards, Michigan’s athletic freak in Donovan Peoples-Jones, but when you’re the 49ers, you want speed, hands, aggression and an ability to compete for the starting job on Day 1.
While you could interpret Kyle Shanahan confidant Chris Simms’ ranking of Jerry Jeudy as his sixth-best wide receiver as a smokescreen, designed to try and lower Jeudy’s value so he could drop to San Francisco, I actually do buy his logic that route running isn’t a necessity. Jeudy’s best attribute is that route-running, while there are other, better athletes in the draft. I think at 13, it’s either Lamb, Ruggs, Kinlaw or a trade down, with Justin Jefferson in that 13-20 range. I think he has the athleticism to play the X spot and I don’t think his film is as bad as it’s made out to be, but if you’re looking for a physical, athletic X who can attack the ball at the point of attack, you go with Pittman or Aiyuk.
Offensive tackle
While wide receiver, corner and defensive tackle are the primary needs, I like drafting a tackle early, or in the first three rounds. That’s while acknowledging that I actually like Justin Skule, Shon Coleman and Daniel Brunskill (though it seems like the plan may be to keep Brunskill at guard). But if Staley doesn’t return this season, or it’s his last, you need to be prepared, and you want a prospect to have the opportunity to learn from Staley. That’s why I would take USC’s Austin Jackson as the first pick in a trade down situation. He’s the ideal athlete for the position, and his skill shows up on tape.
He got into a battle in the trenches with Iowa’s A.J. Epenesa, who’s one of the best pass rushers in this draft and clearly lost a few, but won most. He has the athleticism to recover, and a solid base. He’s the ideal prospect to spend a year or two waiting in the wings behind Staley, or potentially play him at guard for a season or two and he’s a selfless person. He donated his bone marrow to his sister and was open about it at the Combine.
There are other options, and a third- or fourth-round fit like St. John’s Ben Bartch could be another great option (needs to put on weight, but has the above average athleticism and technical skill to develop well. Like Brunskill, he converted from tight end to tackle). If any of the top tackles are left on the board, I would understand the 49ers selecting one, though Mekhi Becton is the most concerning (really has a lot to learn about the position), but simultaneously has the most upside, and wouldn’t be asked to start right away.
Center/guard
Fantastic recognition by Cesar Ruiz on this pull. Picks up the run through by the LB. pic.twitter.com/1HBbXeOYZ2
— Cover 1 (@Cover_1_) April 20, 2020
I don’t think the 49ers will draft a guard unless it’s late on Day 3. I would expect them to go for priority free agents there. If they do decide to improve their interior offensive line, it only makes sense to draft a center, like Cesar Ruiz or Lloyd Cushenberry, who are center prospects who could play at guard.
You’d be looking for someone who could start at guard day one and eventually be your long-term center for when Weston Richburg’s leg injuries eventually catch up with him and his hefty contract.
Defensive end
The 49ers love to draft defensive ends and as stated above, I see that as a place where they can improve, either with a late-round flier attempt on an athletic freak like D.J. Wonnum (terrible tape, fantastic athleticism) or a mid-round prospect like Jonathan Greenard, Khalid Kareem or Alex Highsmith. Highsmith is probably a better fit as a 3-4 EDGE given his stubbiness, but the 49ers love athleticism, and like Greenard, he’s got it.
Defensive tackle
I see a few options for the 49ers at defensive tackle. Draft Javon Kinlaw at 13, trade back into the second round or stay at 31 to take Neville Gallimore, take Raekwon Davis in the third round, or wait until Day 3 for the real value bets to be there. Larrell Murchison is a Round 4 guy who had the best broad jump of any interior defensive lineman, but his tape is iffy and he lacks the get off you look for that early.
Guys like Georgia’s Tyler Clark, Ole Miss’ Josiah Coatney, guys who never lose ground on plays, but rarely have a heaping pile of highlights, and probably lack the athleticism the 49ers like. Also look for Texas’ Malcolm Roach, who posted a 114″ broad jump, and is a sixth-round prospect.
If you’re drafting a guy early, you need a harbinger of havoc: someone who is going to get off the line of scrimmage with aggression, a high motor, and threaten to sack the quarterback at least a handful of times a game. If they don’t do that, wait for Day 3 and go for run-stuffing value with athleticism.
They clog the lanes and create issues for blockers, leaving gaps for their teammates. They’re solid backup options on the interior, where the 49ers have plenty of decent, but relatively unexciting depth, and lost their backup nose tackle in Sheldon Day.
Linebacker
The 49ers are always looking to get younger and faster at linebacker, especially on special teams. They’ve talked to Akeem Davis-Gaither, and tend to look for fast linebackers who have fantastic college production. Michigan State’s Joe Bachie fits that mold, and is very similar to Mark Nzeocha, as is Davion Taylor of Colorado.
Cornerback
Here are my cornerback rankings.
1a. Jeff Okudah, Ohio State
1b. C.J. Henderson, Florida
2a. Noah Igbinoghene, Auburn
2b. Bryce Hall, Virginia
3a. A.J. Terrell, Clemson
3b. Damon Arnette, Ohio State
3c. Jeff Gladney, TCU
3d. Kristian Fulton, LSU
4a. Trevon Diggs, Alabama
4b. Jaylon Johnson, Utah
4d. Cameron Dantzler, Mississippi State
It takes everything in me not to put Bryce Hall in that first tier. In my mind, he’s the choice. He’s aggressive with his hands, but intelligent in avoiding penalties, tracks the ball as well as anyone in the draft, and again, led the nation in pass breakups in his junior season with 21. An absolutely top-notch tackler at the position and is described as a film rat. He is very, very similar to Richard Sherman. He played in a Cover 2 scheme in college, which defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has moved away from (using Cover 3). I recommend watching this video which highlights his humility and work ethic:
He seems to be very intelligent (scored a 27 out of 50 on the Wonderlic if that means anything), and is a self-confident, well-spoken individual. At the NFL Combine, he said he views himself as a top-10 or top-five pick, but that it’s best for him to go to the right situation. Asked what his best off-field talent is, Hall said “public speaking.” Asked what separates him from other corners, he was Sherman-esque.
“It’s the way I prepare, how serious I am in my preparations,” Hall said. “I feel like we’re all similar athletic-wise, but I think it’s my mind that takes me to a different place and how seriously I take this. That’s what I would say gives me an edge.”
The biggest concern with Hall is the fact that he is coming off a season-ending foot fracture and has stiff hips. He’s clearly athletic, but doesn’t have the most fluidity. Yet, unlike some of the most fluid guys in the draft, he makes the plays because he reads quarterbacks intelligently, seems to understand and study opponents’ route concepts, and be able to adjust to the ball in the air and track it well. All very Sherman like. He’s projected to be an early third-rounder at this point, and I can’t think of any better player to study under Sherman.
This is not to say Hall is the only choice. I like Noah Igbinoghene as well, and he’s a more fluid prospect in how he flips his hips and plays the ball, but lacks as much acuity and natural instinct for the position. I see A.J. Terrell or Trevon Diggs as solid late first-round options, with Damon Arnette another prospect projected in Hall’s range. None would be poor picks, but Hall, to me, has the clear-cut best value.
Safety
I have a hard time buying the idea that the 49ers would trade Jaquiski Tartt, and their interviews seem to indicate they’re looking for a backup strong safety. Michigan’s Josh Metellus is an athletic option, along with Clemson’s Tanner Muse and Daniel Thomas from Auburn, who the 49ers have already interviewed.