© Brian Spurlock | 2020 Feb 25
If the 49ers keep their 2020 first-round pick, they’ll have to be nearly as confident in that selection as they were with Nick Bosa. That might be an unreasonable, arguably impossible standard, but in order to justify staying at the 31st overall spot, the value will have to be extraordinary.
With a four-round, 108-pick gap between that spot and their next pick, No. 139, in the fifth round, the situation screams a trade down.
Of course, no team likes to tip its hand, and the organization will, in all likelihood, evaluate that selection as if they’re going to be drafting at that spot. There will certainly be some posturing by the 49ers towards other teams like they don’t want to trade down, but holding onto the No. 1 pick would border on irresponsible.
There are myriad opportunities that will arise during the draft, and Day 1 trades are often defined by the level of patience versus panic teams feel in needing to (nauseating sports trope incoming) “get their guy.”
For that reason, it’s not as straightforward as saying, Team A wants to trade Pick 1, Team B wants Pick 1 for Picks 2 and 3. There are long-term salary cap implications involved, and first-round picks carry a substantially higher burden than Day 2 or Day 3 selections.
For a team like the 49ers, who need to be extraordinarily cautious about how they handle their cap space, those Day 2 picks are actually more valuable thanks to flexibility based on which round players are selected in:
First round: All four years base salary is fully guaranteed (plus fifth-year option)
Second round: First two years base salary is fully guaranteed, not eligible for salary escalator in year four
Rounds three through seven: First year is fully guaranteed, eligible for salary escalator in year four
Undrafted: No guarantees, but may negotiate extension after year two (drafted players must wait three years to negotiate extension)
All rookies sign four-year deals using money from the rookie pool, which is given to each team based on the number of draft picks they have. The 49ers, at $4,961,333 are projected by OverTheCap to have the lowest pool money. Any pair of two third-round picks, and most pairings of second- and third-round picks are cheaper than the projected $2.14 million cap hit of that 31st overall pick.
While other teams are aware of this, the draft brings out the impatience in NFL front offices. Every general manager wants to be remembered for an iconic draft-day trade which changed the fortune of their franchise, and the less patient (and often less qualified) a front office is, the more of an opportunity there is to balloon the return of a trade down.
Obviously, the more draft capital a team has, the more likely they are to make a move (as the 49ers showed with their trade ups for Dante Pettis in 2018 and Reuben Foster, Joe Williams and C.J. Beathard in 2017).
Taking that into consideration, here are teams with multiple picks in one of the second through fourth rounds of this year’s draft and individual picks in each of the other two rounds:
Multiple in second round:
Indianapolis Colts – Picks 34, 44 (Pick 75 in 3rd, 112 in 4th)
Miami Dolphins – Picks 39, 56 (Pick 70 in 3rd, No 4th)
Atlanta Falcons – Picks 47, 55 (Pick 78 in 3rd, 109 in 4th)
Seattle Seahawks – Picks 59, 64 (Pick 123 in 4th)
Multiple in third round:
New York Jets – Picks 68, 79 (Pick 48 in 2nd, Pick 110 in 4th)
Cleveland Browns – Picks 74, 90 (Pick 41 in 2nd, Pick 105 in 4th)
Denver Broncos – Picks 77, 83, 95 (Pick 46 in 2nd, Pick 108 in 4th)
Las Vegas Raiders – Picks 80, 81, 91 (No picks in 2nd, Pick 111 in 4th)
Multiple in fourth round:
Houston Texans – Picks 101, 121 (Pick 57 in 2nd, No picks in 3rd)
Jacksonville Jaguars – Picks 106, 127 (Pick 42 in 2nd, Pick 74 in 3rd)
Pittsburgh Steelers – Picks 114, 125 (Pick 49 in 2nd, No picks in 3rd)
Baltimore Ravens, Picks 119, 124 (Pick 60 in 2nd, Pick 92 in 3rd)
This is by no means suggesting that the only trade possibilities are with teams who have multiple picks in that second-to-fourth-round range. But a few of these teams stand out as potential partners. Below are five potential draft-day trades the 49ers could make.
Trade with Broncos (again): This is an obvious trade partner, and the 49ers’ most frequent (three trades) since the beginning of the Shanahan-Lynch era. They relinquished their third- and fourth-round picks in exchange for the Broncos’s fifth and Emmanuel Sanders during the year, and moved a 2019 sixth-rounder and Dekoda Watson for the fifth-rounder which became Dre Greenlaw.
Thanks to that Sanders trade, the Broncos have two third-rounders (they traded the 49ers’ fourth-rounder to the Jaguars for former Pro Bowl cornerback A.J. Bouye) as well as their second-round pick at No. 46. It’s not inconceivable the Broncos could want to trade up to the end of that first round, especially if they want to go after the higher-end prospects at tackle, corner and/or wide receiver. Denver is in need of help at a number of positions, though, so that price may be too steep for them.
Trade with Falcons: The 49ers, at least Shanahan, appeared on good terms with Dan Quinn, and the Falcons need to target a premier edge rusher through the draft, and are in need of upgrades at corner as well.
If they’re enamored with someone like TCU’s Jeff Gladney, and don’t believe he makes it to Day 2, they could move up. Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff has been known to be aggressive when he feels there’s value to be had. He has, however, hinted that the Falcons could be willing to move back in the draft, though didn’t rule out acquiring more assets.
Trade with Texans: Never rule out insanity from Bill O’Brien. Promoted to be the Doc Rivers of the Texans as both acting GM and head coach, O’Brien is the omnipotent force in Houston. He has already made a series of monumental trades (shipping off JaDeveon Clowney to the Seahawks, acquiring Kenny Stills and Laremy Tunsil from the Dolphins for a pair of first-round picks).
While Houston is limited in what it can offer in this year’s draft (their highest pick after the first round is No. 57 in the second round), they also have two solid complimentary receivers in the injury-prone but dynamic Will Fuller V and Stills. The 49ers aren’t reliant on deep threats (Fuller), but if Sanders leaves, they’ll need another option. Imagine that 57th pick in the second for one of those wide receivers, and the Texans’ (formerly Dolphins’) early fourth-round pick at No. 101 overall.
Trade with Jets: New York is reportedly looking to trade for the Redskins’ Trent Williams, but if that move fails, they’ll still be in the market for a tackle. They draft in the first round at the No. 11 spot, which is enticing for one of the elite tackles in the draft like Lousville’s Mekhi Becton or Georgia’s Andrew Thomas.
The Jets will also likely lose wide receiver Robby Anderson to free agency, and whether it’s a tackle or a wide receiver who drops, there will still be some enticing talent left in the first round at the 31st pick. With the No. 48 pick in the second round and No. 68 and No. 79 pick in the third round, the Jets are an ideal trade partner for the 49ers to target a second- and third-round pick, especially for a team looking to add young support around their young, once “seeing ghosts” starting quarterback in Sam Darnold.
Trade with Browns: Just like the Jets, the Browns have a young quarterback who needs help. They have two elite wide receivers in Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry, but their offensive line play was abysmal and Baker Mayfield took a massive step back in year two. Cleveland is very likely to draft a tackle at the No. 10 spot, but they’re also in need of a safety.
If one of LSU’s Grant Delpit or Alabama’s Xavier McKinney fall to the 31st pick (even Minnesota’s Antoine Winfield Jr. has some buzz around him), the Browns could get aggressive, and have a pair of third-round picks to play with (No. 74 and No. 90, from Houston).
Those, of course, aren’t the only trade options available to San Francisco. There are other teams hungry with an abundance of picks like the Jaguars, Dolphins (though they already have three first-round picks), Colts and Steelers, who can’t be ruled out as getting involved in a trade up.
The 49ers could also tag-and-trade Arik Armstead, move the very expensive and not-so-productive Solomon Thomas, and they are reportedly shopping Marquise Goodwin. Dante Pettis may also be on the table, as well. Below are expectations for what each would fetch in a trade:
Arik Armstead: Early 2020 third-round pick, or 2021 second-round pick, using the Dee Ford scale.
Solomon Thomas: 2021 sixth-round pick. It’s hard to figure out who would be interested in Thomas after such disappointing production in his three seasons, combined with his hefty price tag, and sixth-highest cap hit on the team. His money is fully guaranteed, and the 49ers would have to eat $4.638 million in dead cap in a trade, but if there’s a young, rebuilding team, say the Dolphins (with a defensive-minded head coach in Brian Flores) who want to take a flier on a former No. 3 overall pick.
Dante Pettis: 2020 sixth-round pick. Probably under the assumption that Pettis can regain his form or return punts, this would be a late sixth-round pick, and more likely a seventh.
Marquise Goodwin: Nothing, or a conditional 2021 seventh-round pick.