© Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports
Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey reportedly wants to be traded, and many are arguing that the 49ers should go after him.
Here’s the thing: The 49ers are not trading for Jalen Ramsey. If Ramsey had requested a trade in the offseason, maybe it would be a different story.
Ahkello Witherspoon had just finished a wretched sophomore campaign, Jason Verrett was (and still is) the definition of a question mark, and the 49ers were coming off a 4-12 season, not embarking on one which has begun 2-0 (with two home games over the next three weeks).
Even then, Ramsey to the 49ers would have been an unlikely proposition, despite his status as one of the league’s elite corners (if not the league’s best). He’s owed $13.7 million next season, and will certainly be asking for a historic contract extension if he’s going to avoid hitting free agency.
From the 49ers’ perspective, that’s a problem when both DeForest Buckner and George Kittle are up for, let’s say, sizable extensions (and this is assuming the 49ers let go of Arik Armstead, who’s had a brilliant start to the year).
Next season, Buckner makes $14.36 million on his fifth-year option, while Kittle won’t make more than $809,574 in his fourth year. It’s pretty likely that the best tight end in the NFL is going to want a fair payday, especially when you incorporate the fact that he has outperformed his contract exponentially. And Buckner, while not the best defensive tackle in the league, thanks to Aaron Donald, is unquestionably in the upper echelon.
Looking at contract numbers from Over The Cap, we can make a rough estimate as to what Buckner and Kittle will receive in their potential extensions (assuming both Kittle and Buckner are extended at the conclusion of this season; which seems pretty close to a certainty, though would not be if Ramsey was acquired). The 49ers are projected to have $27 million in cap space next season, which accounts for a projected $12 million jump in the cap (it’s gone up $10-12 million each year since 2015).
Let’s start with Buckner, looking at probably the most apt comparison in terms of age and recency, and the top contract on the market.
Grady Jarrett:
Jarrett may be the most comparable to Buckner, being 26 years old and the numbers, while high in guaranteed money, aren’t outrageous for a player of Buckner’s quality. Knowing the way Paarag Marathe tends to structure contracts for the 49ers, there will likely be a lot of guaranteed money up front and very little on the backend; except, the reverse would hold true if the 49ers need to create cap space for Ramsey. Since Jarrett was signed using the franchise tag, it structures as a traditional four-year deal.
If Buckner is extended, it will likely be four-to-five years, in addition to 2020 (etching his salary through 2024 or 2025).
And for the sake of defining what Buckner won’t be getting, here’s Aaron Donald’s contract:
Donald, on a six-year extension, received the highest guaranteed money of any defensive tackle in NFL history at $50 million fully guaranteed at signing, and $86.892 million guaranteed (essentially has to show up, remain on the roster).
Expect Buckner to receive something in the neighborhood of a $70 million with around $35-plus million fully guaranteed and around $45-plus million guaranteed.
Next up is George Kittle, who by any projection, deserves to be the highest-paid tight end in football. The biggest tight end contract in football currently belongs to the Kansas City Chiefs’ Travis Kelce, who, along with the Philadelphia Eagles’ Zach Ertz, are probably the only two tight ends in football who could arguably be ranked higher than Kittle.
The most guaranteed money among tight ends belongs to the Chicago Bears’ Trey Burton and the Washington Redskins’ Jordan Reed at $22 million. Rookie tight end T.J. Hockenson of the Detroit Lions has the most fully guaranteed money at just over $19 million.
Kelce’s five-year extension was for $46.8 million with $20 million guaranteed back in 2016. Ertz’s five-year extension, also signed in 2016, was worth $42.5 million also with $20 million guaranteed. Reed’s five-year extension (also 2016) was for $46.75 million with $22 million guaranteed. Burton was signed by the Bears last year in free agency for four years, $32 million, with $18 million guaranteed.
Kittle will make more than all of those players mentioned. Considering the fact that Kelce and Ertz were extended back in 2016 and Kittle’s extension will come in 2020, any measure, simply by incorporating NFL inflation, would put that number higher. That’s without taking into account Kittle’s age, productivity and value as a blocker in addition to his constant receiving threat.
If you adjust the numbers based on the salary cap alone using Kelce’s figures, Kittle would be due for a five-year, $60-plus million extension. Currently, Jimmy Graham of the Green Bay Packers has the highest potential tight end salary at $12.67 million this season, though the Patriots’ Rob Gronkowski had the potential to make $12-plus million last season and $13-plus million this season before he retired.
A fair expectation and ask from Kittle’s side would be a deal that pays him in the $13-or-14-plus million range for the last four years, with a raise for his first year of the extension from what he’s scheduled to make.
Based on the fact that Kittle is undeniably one of the NFL’s best tight ends and probably its best, and will turn 26 this October, let’s assume a five-year extension worth a potential $60 million, $34 million guaranteed and $25 million fully guaranteed. It would be a historic tight end contract, especially in comparison to the other contracts out there, but it’s not outrageous.
Meanwhile, Ramsey is due $13.7 million next season and $7.43 million this season. He’s currently 24 years old and knows he’s being underpaid. He will be the highest-paid corner in the NFL whenever he signs his next deal. Xavien Howard, 26, of the Miami Dolphins, currently has the biggest deal on the market at five years, $75.25 million (signed this year), but Josh Norman, 32, at five years, $75 million, has the most guaranteed money at $50 million with $36.5 million fully guaranteed (and signed in 2016).
Ramsey would be signing a deal in 2020, not 2016 when Norman signed his. Like Kittle, his contract will be record-breaking, but on a monumental scale, unlike Kittle’s projects to be. It’ll be the version of Patrick Peterson’s extension with the Arizona Cardinals, which paid him $70.5 million for five years back in 2014. It’s not unreasonable to expect a five-year, $100-plus million deal for Ramsey, with something like $70 million in guarantees and $45 million in full guarantees.
The cost of a first-round pick after the 49ers already lost their second-round pick for Dee Ford plus what Ramsey will command, is far too high a price to pay… independent of the fact that Ahkello Witherspoon is playing the best football of his career, Richard Sherman is renewed after playing a season in pain, and the team has the backup option of Jason Verrett (Pro Bowl caliber if – and it’s a big if – healthy) waiting in the wings.
If Ramsey was traded for, someone would likely have to slot in at nickel corner for K’Waun Williams, who looks like the weakest link in the secondary at the moment (you can debate at safety, too, but while Richard Sherman has said he’s open to switching to safety later in his career, there have been few issues with the 49ers’ safety play thus far, and asking Sherman to do that mid-season would be a confounding proposition).
Over The Cap has a calculator tool which enables the ability to account for trades, roster cuts and extensions. So, we’ve come this far, let’s play out this absurd, not-going-to-happen scenario, which as Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports has already reported, is not something the 49ers are “in on.”
First, Solomon Thomas has to go in the trade. There’s no chance any of this works unless his nearly $9 million cap hit next season is moved. The only other option would be Richard Sherman, which isn’t going to happen. Moving Thomas effectively evens out the money for this season with Ramsey. Ramsey would cost about $4.7 million more than Thomas in 2020 if he plays without an extension at the $13.7 million figure he’s due in his fifth-year option.
Next up, roster cuts.
Jerick McKinnon: Saves $6.55 million if cut before June 1.
Tevin Coleman: Saves $4.9 million if cut.
Mark Nzeocha: Saves $1.5 million if cut.
C.J. Beathard: Saves nearly $950k if cut.
Potential cut – K’Waun Williams: Would save $2.45 million
Cap space if the previous cuts are made before factoring in Ramsey trade: $31.31 million ($28.86 million if Williams retained).
Assuming Ramsey plays with that $13.7 million figure, the number drops to $17.61 million. Assuming Kittle is extended and receives a decent pay bump in the first year, say to a $7.5 million cap hit, the number drops to $10 million. That number assumes Buckner is playing at the $14.36 million figure of his fifth-year option. He’d likely see an increase in that number with an extension, as would Ramsey.
That doesn’t factor the need to fill out the rest of the roster (the 49ers would only have 37 players in this scenario). It would require the team to sign almost only minimum players (they wouldn’t have a first-round draft pick cap hit either) to complete the roster.
It’s a lot of complexity and maneuvering for a team that would probably prefer to use a first-round draft pick to draft an offensive lineman (potential Joe Staley, Weston Richburg or Mike Person replacement) and which has two corners playing very good football.