© Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
It has been admittedly fun daydreaming of Jimmy Garoppolo threading the needle over the middle to Odell Beckham Jr. or Antonio Brown, especially since reality of either star receiver dawning the red and gold has seemingly become a possibility. But how would a move to bring one of these players impact the team? Or perhaps more to the point: Should the 49ers make such a move?
Here’s the obvious: Brown and Beckham have dominated and impacted the game in a way that has been paralleled by few. In the past five seasons, the pair have combined for 103 touchdowns and more than 13,000 yards. These are two of the best receivers of their generation, and adding either would positively impact any franchise.
But to quote the immortal Dr. Ian Malcolm of Jurassic Park, “You were so preoccupied with whether or not you could, you didn’t stop to think if you should.”
Despite the ceaseless optimism that flows through the 49er faithful, this team is by no means a player away. While losing a franchise quarterback in Week 3 would spell the end of a season for most teams, the issues for the 49ers went beyond simply who was under center.
Let’s start with the defensive side of the ball. Last season, the 49ers ranked last in the NFL in turnovers, last in turnover percentage, 28th in points allowed, second-to-last in passing touchdowns allowed, and 28th in fumbles recovered. In addition, in an era where the ball is being throwing more than ever, the 49ers recorded two interceptions, the lowest in NFL history for any team, and neither of those interceptions came from a cornerback.
To put that into perspective, 52 players last season recorded more interceptions than the 49ers.
52.
The defense was marred with injuries, yes, but NFL players get hurt. It’s the nature of the beast, and not having enough quality players to fill the gaps is a problem. With the amount of holes on that side of the ball, devoting what would be about 1/4th of the reported $60 million budget would be a tremendous burden to bear.
Players like Earl Thomas, Landon Collins, and Trey Flowers will all be potentially available to help a fledgling defensive unit, and while guys like Brown and Beckham Jr. are immensely valuable assets, the 49ers need more that just an offensive spark to be competitive.
Now let’s talk offense.
While any 4-12 team surely needs help at just about every position group, there are some positives that can be taken from last season on the offensive side of the ball. Despite the loss of Garoppolo early in the season, the 49ers still finished in the middle of the pack in passing yards (15th), passing touchdowns (17th), and rushing yards (13th). Essentially, without their franchise quarterback, without the man they are entrusting with the future of the franchise, the 49ers have an average offense.
This is the keystone example of what the Kyle Shanahan offensive system is: next man up. Would it help to add a player like Brown to that offense? Absolutely, but at what cost?
If you’re John Lynch, you have a top-three tight end in the league in George Kittle. You have a deep running back corps with Jerick McKinnon and Matt Breida. Could the receiving corps use a little work? Sure, but with one of the deepest wide receiver classes in NFL history coming in the draft, trading for a player that takes up that much cap space can stunt the growth of an up-and-coming team, especially when there are so many needs on the other side of the ball.
For reference, here’s a look at the top-paid wide receivers, according to Overthecap.com, and their teams’ situations:
Odell Beckham Jr.: $90 million total/ $49.9 million guaranteed/ $18 million per year
The Giants are a mess. While Beckham is a supreme talent, he is one of only a few stars in New York, with the team marred down by huge contracts from Beckham, Eli Manning, and Olivier Vernon. The Giants have been unable to provide an aging Manning with many other receiving options, and he has crippled their ability to bolster an offensive line that ranks in the bottom half of the league in pass-blocking. I mean, can you imagine Saquon Barkley running behind a proficient offensive line?
Antonio Brown: $68 million total/ $19 million guaranteed/ $17 million per year
The contract situation for Pittsburgh is actually not terrible, with only Ben Roethlisberger and Brown having major deals. But that team has been a carnival of madness, with Brown leading the charge this offseason. From off-field issues to cryptic Instagram videos in which he refers to himself as “Mr. Big Chest,” adding a distraction like that to a team who is still forging its own culture — like the 49ers — can poison the pot for years to come.
Mike Evans: $82.5 million total/ $38.2 million guaranteed/ $16.5 million per year
Mike Evans is a nightmare for any cornerback, putting up 1,500 yards and eight touchdowns last season, but he stands alone on a team that is otherwise mediocre. Tampa Bay also finds itself in an intriguing situation as the team has to decide whether to sink another huge contract into the young, and at times reckless, franchise quarterback, Jameis Winston. While it may be unfair to label this Buccaneers unit as a lost cause, the team has been trending in the wrong direction, and overpaying for a receiver and a quarterback you’re not sure about isn’t how you return to the playoffs.
DeAndre Hopkins $81 million total/ $36.5 million guaranteed/ $16.2 million per year
DeAndre Hopkins has arguably the best hands in the game, and fortunately for Houston, they can afford to pay him all this money as their star quarterback Deshaun Watson is still on his rookie deal for another two seasons. J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney are also set to make big money in the next couple of years. Navigating their cap situation in the coming season could get tricky, and unless any of them decide to take less so the squad can attract more talent, Houston better hope that what they have is enough to take them to the promised land.
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If the 49ers want a model for how to structure a team, they should look no further than this year’s Super Bowl champions, the New England Patriots. Bill Belichick is known for putting value above all else, and while sometimes that means letting players go too early or making a decision that isn’t the most popular, he often “wins” financial deals more than he gets burned. The results speak for themselves.
In New England’s past three championships in this “modern era” of passing, the Patriots have never had a wideout in the top-five of their cap hits. The highest was Chris Hogan, at 6th, with a $5-million hit. Instead, they opt for paying out defensive talent and out-scheming their opponent offensively, something Shanahan has already shown he can do.
No one is arguing that superstar wide receivers like Brown and Beckham Jr. would make any team better, but signing skill players to major contracts that eat up a ton of cap space tend to not be a model for long-term success. To quote Leo Tolstoy, “The two most powerful warriors are patience and time.” Rome wasn’t built in a day. The 49ers won’t be either.