The Warriors set the NBA world on fire Monday evening, with the shocking announcement that they’d signed former Pelicans and Kings center DeMarcus Cousins to a one-year deal. It was a move nobody saw coming, making it in one sense even more surprising than Kevin Durant’s decision to sign with Golden State two offseasons ago, as in that instance, we at least knew Durant was considering a move to the Bay.
Perhaps being lost in the outrage of the Warriors adding a fifth All-NBA caliber player to one of the greatest teams even assembled, is that Cousins, 27, is still recovering from a torn left Achilles sustained on January 26. The timetable for return — which is typically around 10 months — would put Cousins’ likely availability somewhere around December or January.
The bigger question, however, is what exactly will Cousins look like when he returns? How long will it take him to get back to his All-NBA caliber self, or more pessimistically, will he ever get to that point again?
A torn Achilles is considered one of the most severe injuries an NBA player can sustain, and often has a serious impact on careers after the fact, especially for big men.
To get a better idea of Cousins’ odds of once again being considered one of the best centers in the NBA, let’s take a look at six recent cases of players who sustained notable Achilles injuries, and how it affected their careers.
Wesley Matthews
When: March 2015, Age 28
2014-15 pre-injury averages: 15.9 points, 3.7 rebounds, 56.3 effective field goal percentage
Post-injury: 12.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 50.3 eFG%
Matthews was entering his prime, and on his way to becoming one of the elite 3-and-D wings in the NBA. In his two seasons prior to the injury, Matthews averaged over 16 points a game, with an effective field goal percentage of 50.5.
Matthews hasn’t been the same since, averaging 12.7 points a game last year, while looking a step slow defensively. At 31, Matthews is no longer the player the Mavericks thought they were getting when they signed him to a four-year, $70 million contract in 2015.
Rudy Gay
When: January 2017, Age 30
2016-17 pre-injury averages: 18.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 50.2 eFG%
Post-injury: 11.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, 50.6 eFG%
Like Matthews, Gay recovered from the Achilles injury quickly, playing in the opening game of the next season. That fact is a positive indicator for DeMarcus Cousins, showing that with the proper rehab, players can make it back to the court much quicker than in previous years.
Gay’s efficiency stayed pretty consistant in 2017-18, but his minutes took a serious hit, averaging just 21.8 per game after averaging over 30 per game for nearly his entire career. At this point, it’s too early to tell how much of Gay’s drop in production has to do with the Spurs not wanting to push him, how much has to do with natural regression, and how much has to do with the Achilles.
Kobe Bryant
When: March 2013, Age 34
2012-13 pre-injury averages: 27.3 points, 5.6 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 50.4 eFG%
Post-injury: 18.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 41.6 eFG%
Though past his prime at age 34, Bryant was still an All-Star caliber player at the time of his injury. He would never be that again. Bryant regressed in nearly every statistical category in the three years after tearing his Achilles, with his shooting percentages plummeting. In 107 games between 2014-2016, Bryant shot 36.6 percent from the field, and a ghastly 28.5 percent from deep.
Elton Brand
When: August 2007, Age 28
2006-07 pre-injury averages: 20.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 53.3 eFG%
Post-injury: 10 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, 48.9 eFG%
At 6-foot-8, 275 pounds, Brand is good comparison for Cousins. Upon his return from injury, Brand was no longer able to jump off one foot, and saw his speed and explosiveness take a substantial hit accordingly. After averaging 20 points or more in six of his first eight seasons, Brand never eclipsed more than 15 points a game in a season after tearing the Achilles.
Mehmet Okur
When: April 2010, Age 30
2009-10 pre-injury averages: 13.5 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.1 blocks, 51.1 eFG%
Post-injury: 6.5 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.6 assists
Another big who saw a steep regression following a torn Achilles, Okur’s career essentially ended following his injury in 2010. Okur played in just 30 games the following two seasons before retiring at the age of 32.
Chauncey Billups
When: February 2012, Age 35
2011-12 pre-injury averages: 15 points, 2.3 rebounds, 4 assists,
Post-injury: 6.2 points, 1.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists
Billups’ injury is a bit harder to evaluate considering the point guard was already at the tail end of his career. It’s clear, however, that Billups still had quite a bit left in the tank before tearing his Achilles, averaging 15 points in just over 30 minutes a game before the injury.
Like Okur, the injury basically ended Billups’ career. He would go on to appear in just 41 games over the next two seasons before calling it quits.