Black Monday came and went in the NFL and this year, that all important day left us with six head coaching vacancies. In the days and weeks to come, we will get a steady dose of rumored candidates such as Patriots Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels, Eagles O.C. Frank Reich, Texans Defensive Coordinator Mike Vrabel and even headliners like Jim Harbaugh and Bill Cowher.
With the recent success of younger head coaches such as Sean McVay in LA and Kyle Shanahan in SF (who were 31 & 37 respectively at the time of hire), I would expect this year’s candidates to fit a similar mold. Also, with the emphasis on grooming franchise quarterbacks and the overall importance of that position, having an offensive-minded head coach with an established track record of working with QBs is an attractive commodity. While the Jeff Fisher’s and John Fox’s have had a measure of success, it’s becoming a young man’s game and I see this trend continuing.
Let’s examine which of the current vacancies is actually the most attractive for a perspective head coach. The criteria will be roster strength, ownership support, front office stability, recent track record, salary cap situation and overall prestige.
Here are my rankings in order of worst to best:
6. The Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals were in the NFC Title Game just 2 years ago. With the decline of Carson Palmer and injuries to key personnel, it appears that window has closed. Additionally, the Rams are a playoff team and the 49ers closed out 2017 as the hottest team in the NFL. It appears the NFC West has flipped, and the Seahawks and Cardinals are being passed by. Losing their star running back David Johnson in their first game totally derailed their season and they have talent on both sides of the ball, but with Carson Palmer announcing his retirement on Tuesday, they are now without a quarterback. Larry Fitzgerald, their best offensive player this year, is an aging question mark.
It would seem the best course of action would be a rebuild around Johnson and employ a run first/play solid defense game plan. The team’s ownership is committed to winning and Bruce Arians did a lot to help the franchise, they just didn’t quite make it to the top and now they are rolling back down the hill.
5. The Indianapolis Colts
Chuck Pagano led this team to an 11-5 record for three straight years, and two divisional titles behind the play of QB Andrew Luck. The last three years were a different story. The team went 8-8 in 2015 & 2016 before bottoming out to 4-12 last year, due in large part to Luck missing the entire year with injury. Defensively, they don’t have an identity, ranking 30th in points and total yards allowed in 2017. They also ranked 30th in total offense under Jacoby Brissett and Scott Tolzien. This is was bad football team.
Luck is the ultimate question mark, but outside of a few players such as T.Y. Hilton, Jack Doyle & Malik Hooker, there is not a lot of talent there. In addition, owner in Jim Irsay is no stranger to trouble off the field, and GM in Chris Ballard is young and hasn’t proven he can construct a playoff caliber roster. There are a ton of question marks around this team, starting with the most important position on the field.
The once weak AFC South now has a Jaguars team on the rise, a Texans team excited for a full year with a healthy Deshaun Watson and a Titans team that’s headed to the playoffs.
If healthy, Luck is a top 5 QB, and if he comes back rolling in 2018, the turnaround could be quick. Not to mention they have over $113 million in cap room. Still, there are just too many question marks around this franchise.
4. The Chicago Bears
The Bears said goodbye to John Fox after three straight last place finishes, while extending the contract of GM Ryan Pace. The Bears traded up a spot to draft Mitchell Trubisky 2nd overall, and despite having the worst wide receivers in the NFL, actually showed some promise in 2017. Defensively, the Bears are better than you might think (10th in points per game allowed in 2017) and have top talents like Leonard Floyd, Akiem Hicks & Eddie Jackson.
Offensively, they are set at running back with Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen, a solid offensive line in front of Trubisky. Team owners The McCaskey’s have a reputation for being a little cheap. They probably held on to John Fox a year too long and probably would have been better served to keep former O.C. Adam Gase (who took the job as Miami’s head coach). They have the #8 pick in the draft and may be a few Wide Receivers away from contending for a playoff spot. But the Vikings are strong, the Packers will get a healthy Aaron Rodgers in 2018, and the Lions are a more talented group. The NFC North is tough and they are relying on Trubisky to be a top 10 quarterback if they are going to crack the NFC playoff picture.
3. The New York Giants
The Giants are one of the most iconic franchises in the NFL. They have four Lombardi Trophies on their nightstand. They are also an aging, veteran defense, and a group that quit on Ben Mcadoo.
Deciding on the future of Eli Manning needs to be priority number one, and it would seem that starting over at that position might be the way to go long term. They have a no-nonsense guy in new G.M. David Gettleman who has already indicated he’s got big changes in the works. They have the second pick in the draft which should land them either a potential franchise QB or a stud RB in Penn State’s Saquan Barkley.
Defensively, they had their All-Pro safety Landon Collins call their 2016 first round pick, CB Eli Apple a “cancer” and that will need to be addressed, but this is a proud franchise in a division that has two teams in Dallas and Washington with a ton of question marks as well.
Odell Beckham Jr will be back and healthy in 2018, paired opposite of breakout WR Sterling Sheppard, and hey have an exciting tight end in Evan Engram.
This is a team that went 11-5 in 2016 & a quick turnaround is certainly in the realm of possibility.
2. The Oakland Raiders
With Jon Gruden’s return to the Silver and Black seemingly imminent, this one seems all but decided. Was it the right move for both? That’s debatable. What’s clear is Jack Del Rio lost control of this team and Derek Carr had a marked regression in 2017. He simply looked like a shell of the player whom the Raiders gave a huge contract extension. Amari Cooper had a horrible year and Michael Crabtree wasn’t much better. Marshawn Lynch was more distraction than destruction. Defensively, they were awful. They couldn’t force turnovers and they couldn’t get stops. They were a far cry from the 12-4 team that made the playoffs in 2016. So far, the Derek Carr injury on Christmas Eve last year broke more than Carr’s leg. This is a fractured franchise.
Is Jon Gruden the guy who’s going to turn this around? Maybe, but he has been out of coaching since 2008, and it remains to be seen if his style of coaching and offensive tactics will translate in 2018. The game has changed in the last decade, and while Gruden has been on the front lines working at ESPN on Monday Night Football, he hasn’t been on the sidelines with a headset.
I wouldn’t put it past Gruden to get this team back to the playoffs, but this move reeks of desperation from Raiders owner Mark Davis. The Raiders are a lame duck franchise, and the fact Davis is rumored to be offering a piece of the ownership to get Gruden to return, just shows how desperate he his. There is no room for nostalgia in today’s NFL.
The plus side of this reunion is the fan base adores Gruden, and he could be the right guy to get Carr’s career back on track while keeping relations with a fan base whose team is soon making big move to the desert. They seemingly have franchise players on both sides of the ball and they are in an AFC West with two teams (LA & Denver) who didn’t make the playoffs, and a Chiefs team that is a perennial underachiever with huge salary cap concerns.
Gruden may regret leaving the broadcast booth, but he has the potential to reach Silver and Black deity status should he take this team to the promised land. And a partial owner stake means Davis would give him all the time he needs.
1. The Detroit Lions
This team checks a lot of boxes. They have a franchise quarterback in Matt Stafford who is still just 29 years old and he should have several quality years ahead of him. They have a good receiving corps, a running game that made some progress in 2017 (despite passing on a bevy of young studs in 2017 NFL Draft) and a defense with several key pieces in place. They also have over $50 million dollars in salary cap space in 2018.
The Ford Family has a reputation for letting football people make football decisions. They have a beautiful stadium, a fan base that isn’t expecting much and supports this franchise with blind loyalty. Their GM Bob Quinn still has a lot to prove, but for any incoming head coach, there are bevy of key pieces in place to make it an easy transition.
Defensively they are deep with pass rusher Ziggy Ansah, tackling machines Tahir Whitehead and Jarrod Davis, secondary stalwart Glover Quin Jr. and ballhawk extraordinaire Darius Slay, and fourth year corner Quandre Diggs who had three interceptions in their final four games.
Offensively, Stafford is a pro-bowler. Golden Tate and Marvin Jones Jr. are both studs. Their O-line is much improved, and if they were to acquire a true bell-cow running back, they could be on their way.
Bottom line, they have money, they have a franchise QB, they have solid ownership, they have a great fan base, and they have talent across the board. A quality draft and a productive free agency period, this team could be ready to compete for the playoffs as soon as 2018 which makes this the most attractive job on the market.