Now eight games into 2017, the 49ers’ winless first half left fans shaking their heads and counting the days until next April’s NFL Draft. Although 0-8 is unfamiliar territory to the 49ers (their previous worst start was 0-7 in 1979) they can find some comfort in the way other 0-8 teams in NFL history have bounced back.
Since 2000, six teams– the 2000 San Diego Chargers, 2007 Miami Dolphins, 2008 Cincinnati Bengals, 2008 Detroit Lions, 2011 Indianapolis Colts, and 2014 Oakland Raiders– have gone 0-8 and managed to reach the playoffs at least once in the six years following, as seen in the graph below.
Good news: If history repeats itself, the wait for the 49ers to contend for a playoff spot will be short.
Bad news: Although history says their wait will be short, the rest of 2017-’18 won’t be get much easier to watch.
Stretching back to 1944, there have been four NFL teams with winless seasons. After the league expanded its schedule to 16 games in 1978, only the 2008 Lions failed win a game, going the full 0-16.
Nonetheless, the Lions made the most of their winless season and began their rebound by drafting quarterback Michael Stafford No. 1 overall in the 2009 draft. Stafford returned from season-ending shoulder surgery in 2010 and the Lions reached the playoffs in 2011, three years after their historically horrific season.
As was the case with those Lions, a major overhaul in personnel will be the strategy for a 49ers’ return to the postseason in the next few years. They may find their salvation in the freshly-acquired Jimmy Garoppolo, but you can expect John Lynch to spend one of his upcoming draft picks on a quarterback regardless.
While San Francisco brought in their new head coach before finding a franchise quarterback, the 2014 Raiders chose to work in a slightly reverse order. GM Reggie McKenzie selected QB Derek Carr in the fourth round in 2014, nearly one year before signing Jack Del Rio as his head coach. Carr started 0-10 as a rookie and the team finished 2-14, firing head coach Dennis Allen after four games and handing the reigns to assistant coach Tony Sporano.
As we saw with the 2008 Bengals, who stuck it out with head coach Marvin Lewis despite finishing the season 4-11, the 49ers can be expected to stick with their new GM-Head Coach tandem, which incidentally is locked up under contract for the next six NFL seasons. In the six years following the Bengals’ disastrous 2008 season, Lewis led Cincinnati to a bevy of success, making the playoffs every year from 2009-2015 sans 2010.
More importantly to the struggling 49ers, the Bengals were one of the quickest teams to rebound after their terrible season. Along with the 2007 Dolphins, and 2008 Colts, the Bengals managed to reach the playoffs just a year after starting 0-8.
Sure, San Francisco fans may not have a lot to cheer about this season and reading how other teams bounced back from their similar struggles probably isn’t enough to make them jump for joy. But if you history is due to repeat itself, the 49ers are due for a rebound in the near future.
All the facts and figures used in this piece were gathered using the analytics platform called Looker. Make sure to check them out for user friendly dashboards, visualizations, and data analysis.